Islands in the stream : Australia and Japan face globalisation

A major study of how Australia and Japan, two island nations, face the currents of globalisation. Fascinating chapters by distinguished students of Australia and Japan, and they explore the impact of globalisation.

Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji Islands

In this paper, we examine the relationship between oil price and the Fiji–US exchange rate using daily data for the period 2000–2006. We use the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models to estimate the impact of oil price on the nominal exchange rate. We find that a rise in oil prices leads to an appreciation of the Fijian dollar vis-à-vis the US dollar.

Reviving growth in the Fiji islands : are we swimming or sinking?

The Fiji government’s 2008 'budget for hope' rests on some fundamental assumptions: political stability, the recovery of key sectors of the economy from the effects of the 2006 coup, as well as the recovery of the tourism industry, an industry which in the past has been resilient to coups. With 34 per cent of the population already living below the poverty line, low economic growth could push significantly more people into poverty. If the increases in global food and fuel prices persist, creating even more difficulties for the poor, the prospect of social instability could heighten. In the absence of the expected recovery of these key sectors and the loss of skilled workers, achieving economic and social recovery will require political consensus to resolve the political impasse that has gripped the country. The Interim Government also needs to revisit its fiscal austerity package.

A test of the Wagner's hypothesis for the Fiji Islands

In this article we examine Wagner's law for Fiji for the period 1970 to 2002. Using the Johansen (1988) test for cointegration, we find one cointegration relationship between national output and government expenditure. Using five different long run estimators, we find robust results on the impact of national income on government expenditure. The elasticity ranges from 1.36 to 1.44, implying that a 1% increase in income leads to a 1.36-1.44% increase in government expenditure. Moreover, we find that in the long run national income Granger causes government expenditure. While these results are consistent with Wagner's law, we warn policy makers that because Fiji's total debt stands at around 69% of GDP, in future the bulk of expenditure will go towards debt financing at the expense of productive sectors.

Estimating the demand for money in an unstable open economy : the case of the Fiji Islands

In this paper, we estimate Fiji's money demand function for the period 1971-2002 based on the bounds testing approach to cointegration, which is applicable irrespective of whether or not the underlying variables are non-stationary. We estimate models with and without a time trend and for lag lengths ranging from 1-3, but fail to find any evidence for a long-run relationship. Moreover, our structural break analysis suggests that the unstable nature of Fiji's money demand may be due to atypical events, such as coups; the implementation of policies, such as devaluations and value added tax; and the onset of trade liberalisation policies over the last two decades.

Modelling the relationship between defense spending and economic growth for the Fiji Islands

The goal of this paper is to examine the nexus between GDP and military expenditure. We model this relationship within a multivariate framework by including exports in the model. We use the recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration and find that there is a long run relationship among the variables when GDP is the endogenous variable. Normalizing on GDP and using four different estimators, we find that in the long run both military expenditure and exports have a positive impact on GDP. Finally, using the Granger causality test, we find that there is evidence for military expenditure Granger causing exports and exports Granger causing GDP, implying that military expenditure indirectly Granger causes GDP in the short run. In the long run, we find that both military expenditure and exports Granger cause GDP for Fiji. Our findings are consistent with the Keynesian school of thought, leading us to derive some policy implications.

An empirical investigation of the relationship between government revenue and expenditure : the case of the Fiji Islands

Purpose – Understanding the relationship between government revenue and government expenditure is important from a policy point of view, especially for a country like Fiji, which is suffering from persistent budget deficits. The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between government revenue and expenditure for Fiji.

Design/methodology/approach – The Johansen test for cointegration and Granger causality test are used to conduct the empirical analysis.

Findings – The key findings are that: government revenue and government expenditure in both the aggregate and disaggregate sense are cointegrated; in the short-run government expenditure Granger causes government revenue in an aggregate sense, departmental expenditure Granger causes aggregate revenue, and there is bidirectional causality running between government expenditure and customs duties; and in the long-run there is evidence of fiscal synchronization, implying that expenditure decisions are not made in isolation from revenue decisions.

Research limitations/implications – This fiscal synchronization has not been able curb the current account deficit in Fiji. Moreover, the confirmation of the spend-tax attitude of the government does not bode well for the level of investments and skilled human capital in Fiji as this may perpetuate tax increases in the future. Given that the Fiji Government is currently trying to rein in the escalating level of fiscal deficit, it is an opportune time for them to engage in extensive expenditure reforms.

Originality/value – The findings of this paper should allow policy makers to make informed decisions. Furthermore, the paper is different from others because apart from examining the revenue and expenditure in an aggregate sense, it also considers the different components of revenue and expenditure.

The monetary approach to understanding the balance of payments for the Fiji Islands

The monetary approach to the balance of payments postulates a unidirectional, negative causality running from domestic credit to net foreign assets. Using data for Fiji for the period 1974–2003, we find a statistically significant, negative correlation between domestic credit and net foreign assets; but the Granger causality test reveals no statistical evidence of causality running from domestic credit to net foreign assets. This finding suggests that domestic credit is mainly passive and is not the central tool of monetary policy to which the balance of payments adjusts.