Are nominal exchange rates and price levels co-integrated? new evidence from threshold autoregressive and momentum-threshold autoregressive models

The goal of this paper is to examine evidence for co-integration between nominal exchange rates for Canada, the UK, Japan, Germany, Italy and France (G6) vis-à-vis the US dollar, and the relative price ratios using monthly data over the period 1973:01 to 1997:04. Motivated by the fact that exchange rate adjustment may be asymmetric, we allowed for asymmetric adjustment in exchange rates by using the threshold autoregressive model and the momentum threshold autoregressive model. We do not find any evidence of a co-integrating relationship; hence, we fail to establish long-run purchasing power parity.

Forecasting stock index volatility : comparing implied volatility and the intraday high-low price range

The intraday high–low price range offers volatility forecasts similarly efficient to high-quality implied volatility indexes published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) for four stock market indexes: S&P 500, S&P 100, NASDAQ 100, and Dow Jones Industrials. Examination of in-sample and out-of-sample volatility forecasts reveals that neither implied volatility nor intraday high–low range volatility consistently outperforms the other.

Estimating expected excess returns using historical and option-implied volatility

We test the relation between expected and realized excess returns for the S&P 500 index from January 1994 through December 2003 using the proportional reward-to-risk measure to estimate expected returns. When risk is measured by historical volatility, we find no relation between expected and realized excess returns. In contrast, when risk is measured by option-implied volatility, we find a positive and significant relation between expected and realized excess returns in the 1994–1998 subperiod. In the 1999–2003 subperiod, the option-implied volatility risk measure yields a positive, but statistically insignificant, risk-return relation. We attribute this performance difference to the fact that, in the 1994–1998 subperiod, return volatility was lower and the average return was much higher than in the 1999–2003 subperiod, thereby increasing the signal-to-noise ratio in the latter subperiod.

Weight, physical activity and dietary behavior change in young mothers : short term results of the HeLP-her cluster randomized controlled trial

Background
Preventing weight gain rather than treating established obesity is an important economic and public health response to the rapidly increasing rates of obesity worldwide. Treatment of established obesity is complex and costly requiring multiple resources. Preventing weight gain potentially requires fewer resources to reach broad population groups, yet there is little evidence for successful interventions to prevent weight gain in the community. Women with children are an important target group because of high rates of weight gain and the potential to influence the health behaviors in family members.

Methods
The aim of this cluster randomized controlled trial was to evaluate the short term effect of a community-based self-management intervention to prevent weight gain. Two hundred and fifty mothers of young children (mean age 40 years ± 4.5, BMI 27.9 kg/m2 ± 5.6) were recruited from the community in Melbourne, Australia. The intervention group (n = 127) attended four interactive group sessions over 4 months, held in 12 local primary schools in 2006, and was compared to a group (n = 123) receiving a single, non-interactive, health education session. Data collection included self-reported weight (both groups), measured weight (intervention only), self-efficacy, dietary intake and physical activity.

Results
Mean measured weight decreased significantly in the intervention group (-0.78 kg 95% CI; -1.22 to -0.34, p < 0.001). Comparing groups using self-reported weight, both the intervention and comparison groups decreased weight, -0.75 kg (95% CI; -1.57 to 0.07, p = 0.07) and -0.72 kg (95% CI; -1.59 to 0.14 p = 0.10) respectively with no significant difference between groups (-0.03 kg, 95% CI; -1.32 to 1.26, p = 0.95). More women lost or maintained weight in the intervention group. The intervention group tended to have the greatest effect in those who were overweight at baseline and in those who weighed themselves regularly. Intervention women who rarely self-weighed gained weight (+0.07 kg) and regular self-weighers lost weight (-1.66 kg) a difference of -1.73 kg (95% CI; -3.35 to -0.11 p = 0.04). The intervention reported increased physical activity although the difference between groups did not reach significance. Both groups reported replacing high fat foods with low fat alternatives and self-efficacy deteriorated in the comparison group only.

Conclusion
Both a single health education session and interactive behavioral intervention will result in a similar weight loss in the short term, although more participants in the interactive intervention lost or maintained weight. There were small non-significant changes to physical activity and changes to fat intake specifically replacing high fat foods with low fat alternatives such as fruit and vegetables. Self-monitoring appears to enhance weight loss when part of an intervention.

A cost-based equity weight for use in the economic evaluation of primary health care interventions: case study of the Australian Indigenous population

Background : Efficiency and equity are both important policy objectives in resource allocation. The discipline of health economics has traditionally focused on maximising efficiency, however addressing inequities in health also requires consideration. Methods to incorporate equity within economic evaluation techniques range from qualitative judgements to quantitative outcomes-based equity weights. Yet, due to definitional uncertainties and other inherent limitations, no method has been universally adopted to date. This paper proposes an alternative cost-based equity weight for use in the economic evaluation of interventions delivered from primary health care services.

Methods : Equity is defined in terms of 'access' to health services, with the vertical equity objective to achieve 'equitable access for unequal need'. Using the Australian Indigenous population as an illustrative case study, the magnitude of the equity weight is constructed using the ratio of the costs of providing specific interventions via Indigenous primary health care services compared with the costs of the same interventions delivered via mainstream services. Applying this weight to the costs of subsequent interventions deflates the costs of provision via Indigenous health services, and thus makes comparisons with mainstream more equitable when applied during economic evaluation.

Results : Based on achieving 'equitable access', existing measures of health inequity are suitable for establishing 'need', however the magnitude of health inequity is not necessarily proportional to the magnitude of resources required to redress it. Rather, equitable access may be better measured using appropriate methods of health service delivery for the target group. 'Equity of access' also suggests a focus on the processes of providing equitable health care rather than on outcomes, and therefore supports application of equity weights to the cost side rather than the outcomes side of the economic equation.

Conclusion : Cost-based weights have the potential to provide a pragmatic method of equity weight construction which is both understandable to policy makers and sensitive to the needs of target groups. It could improve the evidence base for resource allocation decisions, and be generalised to other disadvantaged groups who share similar concepts of equity. Development of this decision-making tool represents a potentially important avenue for further health economics research.

Epidermal growth factor-induced ovarian carcinoma cell migration is associated with JAK2/STAT3 signals and changes in the abundance and localization of α6β1 integrin

Peritoneal dissemination of ovarian carcinoma is mediated by epithelial–mesenchymal interconversions leading to the disruption of cell–cell contact and modulation of cell–extracellular matrix (ECM) interactions. The present study was designed to evaluate the effects of epidermal growth factor (EGF) as a modulator of Janus kinase 2 (JAK2) and signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) signalling and changes in integrin expression during the process similar to EMT. A fibroblastic morphology with reduced intercellular cell contacts and increased cell motility was observed in ovarian cancer cell lines in response to EGF and was concomitant with the up regulation of EMT-associated N-cadherin and vimentin expression. These changes were accompanied by an increase in α2, α6 and β1 integrin subunits and activation of JAK2 and STAT3 signalling which was suppressed by a specific JAK2 inhibitor. Consistent with the suppression of STAT3 activity, N-cadherin and vimentin expression were abrogated and was coherent with the loss of cell motility and the expression of α6 and β1 integrin subunits. Neutralizing antibodies against α6 and β1 subunits inhibited cancer cell migration. A strong correlation between the expression of N-cadherin, vimentin and JAK2/STAT3 levels were detected in high-grade ovarian tumors and was consistent with the previously reported enhanced expression of α6 integrin subunit in advanced tumors [Ahmed N, Riley C, Oliva K, Rice G, Quinn M. Ascites induces modulation of α6β1 integrin and urokinase plasminogen activator receptor expression and associated functions in ovarian carcinoma. British Journal of Cancer 2005;92:1475–85]. Our data incorporating the clinical samples and the cancer cell lines is the first to demonstrate that JAK2/STAT3 pathway may be one of the downstream events in EMT-like process and α6β1 integrin-mediated signalling in ovarian carcinomas.

Has international trade in saving improved US economic welfare?

Over the past decade international policy-makers have perceived the current account deficit of the world's largest foreign borrower economy, the United States, as a threat to global economic and financial stability. Yet, by bridging the US domestic saving-investment gap, capital inflow that matched the huge US current account deficit also enabled a faster rate of domestic capital accumulation than home saving alone would have permitted. Consistent with the theory of international capital movements, this study identifies and compares the respective contributions of domestic and foreign saving to US gross domestic product per worker over the two decades prior to the onset of the US banking crisis. By revealing that foreign borrowing contributed significantly to raising US output and hence living standards over this period, it adds a new dimension to the debate about global imbalances.

The race that stops a nation : the demand for the Melbourne Cup

This article uses the bounds testing procedure to cointegration, within an autoregressive distributed lag framework to estimate the determinants of attendance at the Melbourne Cup from its inception from 1861 to 2002. Following the literature on the demand for professional team sports, attendance is specified as a function of economic, demographic and race-specific factors. The main findings are that real income and population size are the major determinants of attendance in the long run, while in the short run the weather is the most important factor explaining attendance.

Risk of prostate cancer associated with a family history in an era of rapid increase in prostate cancer diagnosis (Australia)

OBJECTIVE: We conducted a case-control study of prostate cancer and familial risk of the disease in Australia between 1994 and 1998, a period during which the incidence of prostate cancer increased dramatically with widespread use of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. METHODS: 1475 cases and 1405 controls were asked about prostate cancer in their first-degree relatives. Odds ratios (OR) were calculated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Cases were more likely to report a family history of prostate cancer than controls (OR 3.0; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3-3.9) and cases reporting an affected relative were younger (58.8 versus 60.9 years, p < 0.0001). The OR for an affected first-degree relative increased with increasing number of affected relatives and decreased with increasing age of the case. The OR for more than one affected first-degree relative was 6.9 (95% CI 2.7-18). The OR for an affected brother was 3.9 (95% CI 2.5-6.1) and for an affected father was 2.9 (95% CI 2.1-3.9) but these were not significantly different (p = 0.2). When analyses were repeated including only diagnoses made in relatives prior to 1992, the risks were generally similar except that the OR for an affected brother decreased to 3.1 (95% CI 1.2-3.9). When only relatives' diagnoses made after 1991 were included results were again similar to those for all relatives, although the effect for brothers was greater and the attenuation with age at diagnosis dissipated. CONCLUSIONS: The recent introduction of PSA testing that has resulted in a greater prevalence of apparent prostate cancer, does not appear to have substantially altered familial risks of disease, although effects associated with brothers may be inflated.

Measuring non-economic well-being achievement

Income per capita and most widely reported, non- or non-exclusively income based human well-being indicators are highly correlated among countries. Yet many countries exhibit higher achievement in the latter than predicted by the former. The reverse is true for many other countries. This paper commences by extracting the inter-country variation in a composite of various widely-reported, non-income-based well-being indices not accounted for by variations in income pre capita. This extraction is interpreted inter alia as a measure of non-economic well-being. The paper then looks at correlations between this extraction and a number of new or less widely-used well-being measures, in an attempt to find the measure that best captures these achievements. A number of indicators are examined, including measures of poverty, inequality, health status, education status, gender bias, empowerment, governance and subjective well-being.

A cell-permeable dominant-negative survivin protein induces apoptosis and sensitizes prostate cancer cells to TNF-α therapy

BACKGROUND: Survivin is a member of the inhibitor-of-apoptosis (IAP) family which is widely expressed by many different cancers. Overexpression of survivin is associated with drug resistance in cancer cells, and reduced patient survival after chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Agents that antagonize the function of survivin hold promise for treating many forms of cancer. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether a cell-permeable dominant-negative survivin protein would demonstrate bioactivity against prostate and cervical cancer cells grown in three dimensional culture.

RESULTS: A dominant-negative survivin (C84A) protein fused to the cell penetrating peptide poly-arginine (R9) was expressed in E. coli and purified by affinity chromatography. Western blot analysis revealed that dNSurR9-C84A penetrated into 3D-cultured HeLa and DU145 cancer cells, and a cell viability assay revealed it induced cancer cell death. It increased the activities of caspase-9 and caspase-3, and rendered DU145 cells sensitive to TNF-α via by a mechanism involving activation of caspase-8.

CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrate that antagonism of survivin function triggers the apoptosis of prostate and cervical cancer cells grown in 3D culture. It renders cancer cells sensitive to the proapoptotic affects of TNF-α, suggesting that survivin blocks the extrinsic pathway of apoptosis. Combination of the biologically active dNSurR9-C84A protein or other survivin antagonists with TNF-α therapy warrants consideration as an approach to cancer therapy.

Evaluating the distributional implications of price movements : methodology, application and Australian evidence

This article investigates the distributional implication of relative price movements in Australia. It proposes and applies a method of evaluating the nature and size of the inequality bias of price movements. In the process, the study introduces a new demographic demand model that yields sensible and statistically significant estimates of the general equivalence scale and the size economies of scale. The study finds that relative price movements in Australia during the 1990s had an inequality increasing bias and that this bias increased in the late 1990s and the first part of the new millennium. The disaggregated analysis of the inequality movements shows that the regressive nature of relative price changes affected the renters much more than non-renters. The study also provides evidence on the decomposition of overall inequality between demographic groups and compares the decomposition between the nominal and real expenditure inequalities.

Discourses of regeneration in early twentieth-century Britain : from Bedlam to the Imperial War Museum

This paper examines the building that presently houses the Imperial War Museum, investigating the transformation of the archetypal ‘mad space’ of the Bethlem Royal Hospital into what has been described as the ‘biggest boy’s bedroom in London’. Following recent concerns in human geography with Imperial cities, it highlights the differing ways in which this transformation embodies a number of themes of degeneration and regeneration in early twentieth-century Britain.