Modelling money demand for a panel of eight transitional economies

In this article, we estimate money demand functions for a panel of eight transitional economies, using quarterly data for the period 1995:01 1995 to 2005:03. We find that real M1 and real M2 and their determinants, namely real income and short-term domestic interest rate, are cointegrated, both for individual countries as well as for the panel. Long-run elasticities suggest that consistent with theory, real income positively and nominal interest rate negatively impact real money demand. Our test for panel Granger causality suggests short-run bidirectional causality between M1 and M2 and their determinants. Finally, our tests for stability of the money demand functions reveal more cases of unstable money demand functions when M2 is used as a proxy for money demand.

Cointegration of stock markets between New Zealand, Australia and the G7 Economies :searching for common trends under structural change

This paper examines whether the New Zealand equity market is integrated with the equity markets of Australia and the G7 economies by applying both the Johansen (1988) and Gregory and Hansen (1996) approaches to cointegration. The Johansen (1988) test suggests that there is no long-run relationship between the New Zealand stock market and any of the other stock markets considered in the study. The Gregory and Hansen (1996) test finds that the New Zealand and United States stock market is cointegrated, but the New Zealand stock market is not cointegrated with the other stock markets in the study. This suggests that in order to avoid some of the risk through international portfolio diversification there is potential for investors to purchase shares in the New Zealand market and either the Australian market or most of the world’s leading equity markets.

Advanced technology and economies of scale in the cement industry

The thesis examines sources of economies of scale for the manufacture and distribution of Portland cement. Using cost models, it is shown that recent advances in technology have increased the economies of scale for efficient clinker production significantly, and to a lesser degree for finish grinding operations and bulk distribution.

Sudan's Darfur : peace or more war on the horizon?

This year marks Sudan’s fiftieth year of independence. Unfortunately, it has very little to celebrate. Sudan, the largest country in Africa is best known for its long history of maladministration, human rights abuses, coups d’état, and for the past three years a ruthless government-backed assault on the people of Darfur in western Sudan.

Written by Dr Claude Rakisits, a consultant focusing on developments in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia, the paper examines the latest developments in Darfur and the factors that will determine whether there will finally be peace for the people of Darfur and the Australian Government’s policy options for contributing to a possible UN peacekeeping operation in Darfur.

A wordless horizon

This research identifies and explores the thematic and technical innovations of a number of politically-engaged poets as a means to illustrate important aspects of the poet's own creative work. Fundamental to the exegesis is the development of a contemporary poetic founded on the problem of 'intersectionist oppression'

Asset-selling problem with an uncertain deadline, quitting offer, and search skipping option

This paper presents a discrete-time sequential stochastic asset-selling problem with an infinite planning horizon, where the process of selling the asset may reach a deadline at any point in time with a probability. It is assumed that a quitting offer is available at every point in time and search skipping is permitted. Thus, decisions must be made as to whether or not to accept the quitting offer, to accept an appearing buyer’s offer, and to conduct a search for a buyer. The main purpose of this paper is to clarify the properties of the optimal decision rules in relation to the model’s parameters.

An agent-based approach to value theory and wealth distribution in economics

Any attempt to model an economy requires foundational assumptions about the relations between prices, values and the distribution of wealth. These assumptions exert a profound influence over the results of any model. Unfortunately, there are few areas in economics as vexed as the theory of value. I argue in this paper that the fundamental problem with past theories of value is that it is simply not possible to model the determination of value, the formation of prices and the distribution of income in a real economy with analytic mathematical models. All such attempts leave out crucial processes or make unrealistic assumptions which significantly affect the results. There have been two primary approaches to the theory of value. The first, associated with classical economists such as Ricardo and Marx were substance theories of value, which view value as a substance inherent in an object and which is conserved in exchange. For Marxists, the value of a commodity derives solely from the value of the labour power used to produce it - and therefore any profit is due to the exploitation of the workers. The labour theory of value has been discredited because of its assumption that labour was the only ‘factor’ that contributed to the creation of value, and because of its fundamentally circular argument. Neoclassical theorists argued that price was identical with value and was determined purely by the interaction of supply and demand. Value then, was completely subjective. Returns to labour (wages) and capital (profits) were determined solely by their marginal contribution to production, so that each factor received its just reward by definition. Problems with the neoclassical approach include assumptions concerning representative agents, perfect competition, perfect and costless information and contract enforcement, complete markets for credit and risk, aggregate production functions and infinite, smooth substitution between factors, distribution according to marginal products, firms always on the production possibility frontier and firms’ pricing decisions, ignoring money and credit, and perfectly rational agents with infinite computational capacity. Two critical areas include firstly, the underappreciated Sonnenschein-Mantel- Debreu results which showed that the foundational assumptions of the Walrasian general-equilibrium model imply arbitrary excess demand functions and therefore arbitrary equilibrium price sets. Secondly, in real economies, there is no equilibrium, only continuous change. Equilibrium is never reached because of constant changes in preferences and tastes; technological and organisational innovations; discoveries of new resources and new markets; inaccurate and evolving expectations of businesses, consumers, governments and speculators; changing demand for credit; the entry and exit of firms; the birth, learning, and death of citizens; changes in laws and government policies; imperfect information; generalized increasing returns to scale; random acts of impulse; weather and climate events; changes in disease patterns, and so on. The problem is not the use of mathematical modelling, but the kind of mathematical modelling used. Agent-based models (ABMs), objectoriented programming and greatly increased computer power however, are opening up a new frontier. Here a dynamic bargaining ABM is outlined as a basis for an alternative theory of value. A large but finite number of heterogeneous commodities and agents with differing degrees of market power are set in a spatial network. Returns to buyers and sellers are decided at each step in the value chain, and in each factor market, through the process of bargaining. Market power and its potential abuse against the poor and vulnerable are fundamental to how the bargaining dynamics play out. Ethics therefore lie at the very heart of economic analysis, the determination of prices and the distribution of wealth. The neoclassicals are right then that price is the enumeration of value at a particular time and place, but wrong to downplay the critical roles of bargaining, power and ethics in determining those same prices.

False economies : a global health crisis

Recommends measures to combat global epidemics and collapsing health care systems. Global aid to health; Greater market access for developing countries; Reversal of the brain drain; Development of better drugs and vaccines.