Prediction intervals for short-term wind farm power generation forecasts

Quantification of uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts is essential for optimal management of wind farms and their successful integration into power systems. This paper investigates two neural network-based methods for direct and rapid construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for short-term forecasting of power generation in wind farms. The lower upper bound estimation and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainties associated with forecasts. The effectiveness and efficiency of these two general methods for uncertainty quantification is examined using twenty four month data from a wind farm in Australia. PIs with a confidence level of 90% are constructed for four forecasting horizons: five, ten, fifteen, and thirty minutes. Quantitative measures are applied for objective evaluation and unbiased comparison of PI quality. Demonstrated results indicate that reliable PIs can be constructed in a short time without resorting to complicate computational methods or models. Also quantitative comparison reveals that bootstrap PIs are more suitable for short prediction horizon, and lower upper bound estimation PIs are more appropriate for longer forecasting horizons.

An approach for wind power integration using demand side resources

Renewable energy resources, especially wind power, are expected to provide a considerable portion of the world energy requirements in the near future. Large-scale wind power penetration impacts the electricity industry in many aspects and raises a number of technical challenges for the electricity network. A day-ahead network-constrained market clearing formulation is proposed which considers demand side resources. The proposed approach can provide flexible load profile and reduce the need for ramp up/down services by the conventional generators. This method can potentially facilitate a large penetration of wind power by shifting the wind power generation from the off-peak periods to the high-peak hours. The validity of the proposed approach has been verified using the IEEE 30 bus and 57 bus test systems.

Influences of wind energy integration into the distribution network

Wind energy is one of the most promising renewable energy sources due to its availability and climate-friendly attributes. Large-scale integration of wind energy sources creates potential technical challenges due to the intermittent nature that needs to be investigated and mitigated as part of developing a sustainable power system for the future. Therefore, this study developed simulation models to investigate the potential challenges, in particular voltage fluctuations, zone substation, and distribution transformer loading, power flow characteristics, and harmonic emissions with the integration of wind energy into both the high voltage (HV) and low voltage (LV) distribution network (DN). From model analysis, it has been clearly indicated that influences of these problems increase with the increased integration of wind energy into both the high voltage and low voltage distribution network, however, the level of adverse impacts is higher in the LV DN compared to the HV DN.

Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals

Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.

Optimal sensor placement and measurement of wind for water quality studies in urban reservoirs

We collaborate with environmental scientists to study the hydrodynamics and water quality in an urban district, where the surface wind distribution is an essential input but undergoes high spatial and temporal variations due to the complex urban landform created by surrounding buildings. In this work, we study an optimal sensor placement scheme to measure the wind distribution over a large urban reservoir with a limited number of wind sensors. Unlike existing sensor placement solutions that assume Gaussian process of target phenomena, this study measures the wind which inherently exhibits strong non-Gaussian yearly distribution. By leveraging the local monsoon characteristics of wind, we segment a year into different monsoon seasons which follow a unique distribution respectively. We also use computational fluid dynamics to learn the spatial correlation of wind in the presence of surrounding buildings. The output of sensor placement is a set of the most informative locations to deploy the wind sensors, based on the readings of which we can accurately predict the wind over the entire reservoir surface in real time. 10 wind sensors are finally deployed around or on the water surface of an urban reservoir. The in-field measurement results of more than 3 months suggest that the proposed sensor placement and spatial prediction approach provides accurate wind measurement which outperforms the state-of-the-art Gaussian model based or interpolation based approaches.