Macroeconomic impact of foreign aid to developing countries

The thesis looks at the macroeconomic impact of foreign aid. It is specially concerned with aid's impact on the public sector of less developed countries < LDCs> . Since the overwhelming majority of aid is directed to the public sector of LDCs, one can only understand the broader macroeconomic impact of aid if one first understands its impact on this sector. To this end, the thesis econometrically estimates " fiscal response" models of aid. These models, in essence, attempt to shed light on public sector fiscal behaviour in the presence of aid inflows, being specially concerned with the way aid is used to finance various categories of expenditures. The underlaying concern is to extent to which aid is " fungible" -that is, whether it finances consumption expenditure and reductions in taxation revenue in LDCs. A number of alternative models are derived from a utility maximisation framework. These alternatives reflect different assumptions regarding the behaviour of LDC public sectors and relate to the endogeniety of aid, whether or not recurrent expenditure is financed from domestic borrowing and the determination of domestic borrowing. The original frameworks of earlier studies are extended in a number of ways, including the use of a public sector utility function which is fully consistent with expected maximising behaviour. Estimates of these models' parameters are obtained using both time-series and cross-section data, dating from the 1960s, for Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and the Philippines. Both structural and reduced-form equations are estimated. Results suggest that foreign aid is indeed fungible, albeit at different levels. Moreover, the overall impact of aid on public sector investment, consumption, domestic borrowing and taxation varies between countries. Generally speaking, aid leads to increases in investment and consumption expenditure, but reduces taxation and domestic borrowing. Comparative analysis does, however, show that these results are highly sensitive to alternative behavioural assumptions and, therefore, model specification.

Aid, economic reform, and public sector fiscal behaviour in developing countries

This paper looks at interactions between foreign development aid, economic reform, and public sector fiscal behavior. It proposes a model of the public sector fiscal response to aid inflows, which allows for changes in structural relationships due to an exogenously imposed program of economic reform. This model is applied to 1960–99 time series data for the Philippines, which embarked on an IMF- and World Bank-funded structural adjustment program in 1980. Estimates of structural and reduced-form equations paint a dismal picture of the effectiveness of foreign aid to, and the structural adjustment program in, the Philippines so far as fiscal impacts are concerned. Both bilateral and multilateral aid inflows, and the presence of an economic reform program, are associated with decreases in public fixed capital expenditure, decreases in taxation and other recurrent revenue, and decreases in public sector saving. Multilateral aid also appears to be highly fungible.

Aid and growth in small island developing states

Aid flows to small island developing states (SIDS) are enormous by international standards when compared to the size of their economies. Yet these countries face many severe economic challenges and many have experienced declines in the living standards of their citizens. This paper looks at the impact of aid on what is treated as a necessary precondition for improvements in living standards, typically defined. Specifically, it examines the impact of foreign aid on real per capita income growth in SIDS by econometrically analysing cross-country data for the period 1980 to 2004. A variety of econometric techniques and measures of aid are used. Results suggest that foreign aid is effective at spurring economic growth but with diminishing returns.

Aid, debt burden and government fiscal behaviour in Côte d'Ivoire

This paper examines the impact of foreign aid on public sector fiscal behaviour in Co^te d’Ivoire. A special interest is the relationship between aid, debt servicing and debt, given that Coˆte d’Ivoire is a highly indebted country. The theoretical model employed differs from those of previous studies by highlighting the interaction between debt servicing and the other fiscal variables, providing information on aid and fiscal behaviour that its predecessors cannot. This model is estimated using 1975–99 time series data. Two key findings emerge: (i) the majority of aid inflows are allocated to expenditure on debt servicing; and (ii) these inflows are associated with increases in the level of public debt.