Bone mineral density and incidence of hip fracture in Swedish urban and rural women 1987–2002

Background and purpose Although the incidence of hip fracture during the past 50 years has increased, a break in this trend has been reported in the last decade. Whether this change is attributable to changes in bone mineral density (BMD) or whether it varies between urban and rural regions is unknown.

Methods We evaluated changes in annual hip fracture incidence in women aged ≥ 50 years in one urban population (n = 51,757) and one rural population (n = 26,446) from 1987 to 2002. We also examined secular differences in BMD (mg/cm2), evaluated by single-photon absorptiometry at the distal radius, prevalence of osteoporosis, and several other risk factors for hip fracture in one population-based sample of urban women and one sample of rural women aged 50–80 years at two time points: 1988/89 (n = 257 and n = 180, respectively) and 1998/99 (n = 171 and n = 118, respectively).

Results No statistically significant changes were evident in annual age-adjusted hip fracture incidence per 104 when analyzing all women (–0.01 per year (95% CI: –0.37, 0.35)), rural women (–0.38 per year (-1.05, 0.28)), or urban women (0.19 per year (–0.28, 0.67)). BMD (expressed as T-score) was similar in 1988/99 and 1998/99 when analyzing all women (–0.09 (–0.26, 0.09)), urban women (–0.04 (–0.27, 0.19)), or rural women (–0.15 (–0.42, 0.13)) women.

Interpretation Since no changes in age-adjusted hip fracture incidence and no differences in BMD were found during the study period, changes evident in the other risk factors for hip fracture that we investigated (such as gait velocity and balance) are either of minor importance or are counteracted by changes in other risk factors.

The incidence of all stroke and stroke subtype in the United Kingdom, 1985 to 2008 : a systematic review

Background : There is considerable geographic variation in stroke mortality around the United Kingdom (UK). Whether this is due to geographical differences in incidence or case-fatality is unclear. We conducted a systematic review of high-quality studies documenting the incidence of any stroke and stroke subtypes, between 1985 and 2008 in the UK. We aimed to study geographic and temporal trends in relation to equivalent mortality trends.

Methods : MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched, reference lists inspected and authors of included papers were contacted. All rates were standardised to the European Standard Population for those over 45, and between 45 and 74 years. Stroke mortality rates for the included areas were then calculated to produce rate ratios of stroke mortality to incidence for each location.

Results : Five papers were included in this review. Geographic variation was narrow but incidence appeared to largely mirror mortality rates for all stroke. For men over 45, incidence (and confidence intervals) per 100,000 ranged from 124 (109-141) in South London, to 185 (164-208) in Scotland. For men, premature (45-74 years) stroke incidence per 100,000 ranged from 79 (67-94) in the North West, to 112 (95-132) in Scotland. Stroke subtype data was more geographically restricted, but did suggest there is no sizeable variation in incidence by subtype around the country. Only one paper, based in South London, had data on temporal trends. This showed that there has been a decline in stroke incidence since the mid 1990 s. This could not be compared to any other locations in this review.

Conclusions : Geographic variations in stroke incidence appear to mirror variations in mortality rates. This suggests policies to reduce inequalities in stroke mortality should be directed at risk factor profiles rather than treatment after a first incident event. More high quality stroke incidence data from around the UK are needed before this can be confirmed.

Multiple mating and a low incidence of cuckoldry for nest-holding males in the two-spotted goby, Gobiusculus flavescens

Background: A major question in behavioural ecology concerns the relationship between genetic mating systems and the strength of sexual selection. In this study, we investigated the genetic mating system of the two-spotted goby (Gobiusculus flavescens), a useful fish model for the study of sexual selection whose genetic mating system remains uncharacterized. We developed four polymorphic microsatellite markers and used them to conduct parentage analyses on 21 nests collected during the breeding season to examine the rates of multiple mating by males and to test for evidence of alternative mating strategies.

Results: Results of this study indicate that male G. flavescens mate with multiple females and enjoy confidence of paternity. We detected only one instance of sneaking, so cuckoldry contributed a very small percentage (~0.1%) of the total fertilizations in this population. Nests were nearly full and males that maintain larger nests have higher mating and reproductive success, irrespective of body size.

Conclusion: Overall, our investigation shows that G. flavescens is similar to other, related gobies in that the nests of care-giving males often contain eggs from multiple females. However, G. flavescens differs from other gobies in displaying an extremely low rate of cuckoldry. The study of ecological factors responsible for this important

Variable incidence angle localized surface plasmon resonance graphene biosensor

This paper investigates the enhancement of sensitivity of variable incidence angle LSPR biosensor by monitoring biomolecular interactions of biotin-streptavidin with gold thin film. The investigation is carried out by means of introducing an additional layer of graphene sheet on top of gold layer (graphene biosensor) and using different coupling configuration of laser beam. The sensitivity, which is indicated by the shift of plasmon resonance angle, increases with graphene deposited onto the gold layers and is linearly related with the number of graphene layers. In addition, an investigation of the shift of plasmon dip is carried out for two different analyte interfaces: air and water. It is found that graphene biosensor has better sensitivity for triangular prism, higher prism angle, and water interface. The evaluation approach involves a plot of a reflectivity curve as a function of the angle of incidence while the operating wavelength is kept fixed.

Forearm bone mineral density and incidence of hip fractures in Swedish urban and rural men 1987-2002

Background: It is not known whether the recently described break in the trend in hip fracture incidence in many settings applies in both women and men, depends on changes in bone mineral density (BMD) or changes in other risk factors, or whether it is apparent in both urban and rural settings. Methods: We evaluated changes in annual hip fracture incidence from 1987 to 2002 in Swedish men aged ≥60 years in one urban (n=25,491) and one rural population (n=16,432) and also secular differences in BMD, measured by single-photon absorptiometry at the distal radius and multiple other risk factors for hip fracture in a population-based sub-sample of the urban and the rural men aged 60–80 years in 1988/89 (n=202 vs. 121) and in 1998/99 (n=79 vs. 69). Results: No statistically significant changes in the annual age-adjusted hip fracture incidence per 10,000 were apparent from 1987 to 2002 in urban (0.38 per year, 95% CI-0.12 to 0.88) or rural men (-0.05 per year, 95% CI -0.63 to 0.53). BMD was similar in 1988/89 and 1998/99 when examining both urban (-19.6 mg/cm², 95% CI -42.6 to 3.5) and rural (-23.0 mg/cm², 95% CI -52.1 to 6.1) men. Conclusions: Since no secular change in age-adjusted hip fracture incidence was found during the study period, a levelling off in hip fracture incidence is present also in Swedish men. Because BMD on a group level was similar in 1988/89 and 1998/99, changes in other risk factors ought to be either of minor importance or counteracted by changes in different risk factors.

Incidence of cardiovascular risk factors by education level 2000-2005 : the Australian diabetes, obesity and lifestyle (AusDiab) cohort study

Lower socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with a higher prevalence of major risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, few longitudinal studies have examined the association between SES and CVD risk factors over time. We aimed to determine whether SES, using education as a proxy, is associated with the onset of CVD risk factors over 5 years in an Australian adult cohort study.

Participants in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (AusDiab) study aged 25 years and over who attended both baseline and 5-year follow-up examinations (n=5 967) were categorised according to educational attainment. Cardiovascular risk factor data at both time points were ascertained through questionnaire and physical measurement.

Women with lower education had a greater risk of progressing from normal weight to overweight or obesity than those with higher education (age-adjusted OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.06-2.31). Both men and women with lower education were more likely to develop diabetes (age-adjusted OR from higher education 1.75, 95% CI 1.14-2.71 and 3.01, 95% CI 1.26-7.20, respectively). A lower level of education was associated with a greater number of risk factors accumulated over time in women (OR of progressing from having two or less risk factors at baseline to three or more at follow up, 2.04, 95% 1.32-3.14).

In this Australian population-based study, lower educational attainment was associated with an increased risk of developing both individual and total CVD risk factors over a 5-year period. These findings suggest that SES inequalities in CVD will persist into the future.

Age at quitting smoking as a predictor of risk of cardiovascular disease incidence independent of smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years

Background: Risk prediction for CVD events has been shown to vary according to current smoking status, pack-years smoked over a lifetime, time since quitting and age at quitting. The latter two are closely and inversely related. It is not known whether the age at which one quits smoking is an additional important predictor of CVD events. The aim of this study was to determine whether the risk of CVD events varied according to age at quitting after taking into account current smoking status, lifetime pack-years smoked and time since quitting.
Findings. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CVD event for a cohort of participants in the Framingham Offspring Heart Study who attended the fourth examination between ages 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD. Those who quit before the median age of 37 years had a risk of CVD incidence similar to those who were never smokers. The incorporation of age at quitting in the smoking variable resulted in better prediction than the model which had a simple current smoker/non-smoker measure and the one that incorporated both time since quitting and pack-years. These models demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The risk among those quitting more than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those whose age at quitting was prior to 44 years was similar to the risk among never smokers. However, the risk among those quitting less than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those who continued to smoke until 44 years of age (or beyond) was two and a half times higher than that of never smokers.
Conclusions: Age at quitting improves the prediction of risk of CVD incidence even after other smoking measures are taken into account. The clinical benefit of adding age at quitting to the model with other smoking measures may be greater than the associated costs. Thus, age at quitting should be considered in addition to smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years when counselling individuals about their cardiovascular risk.

Area-level socioeconomic status and incidence of abnormal glucose metabolism : the Australian diabetes, obesity and lifestyle (AusDiab) study

OBJECTIVE--To examine the role of area-level socioeconomic status (SES) on the development of abnormal glucose metabolism (AGM) using national, population-based data.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS--The Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study is a national, population-based, longitudinal study of adults aged [greater than or equal to] 25 years. A sample of 4,572 people provided complete baseline (1999 to 2000) and 5-year follow-up (2004 to 2005) data relevant for these analyses. Incident AGM was assessed using fasting plasma glucose and 2-h plasma glucose from oral glucose tolerance tests, and demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral data were collected by interview and questionnaire. Area SES was defined using the Index of Relative Socioeconomic Disadvantage. Generalized linear mixed models were used to examine the relationship between area SES and incident AGM, with adjustment for covariates and correction for cluster design effects.

RESULTS--Area SES predicted the development of AGM, after adjustment for age, sex, and individual SES. People living in areas with the most disadvantage were significantly more likely to develop AGM, compared with those living in the least deprived areas (odds ratio 1.53; 95% CI 1.07-2.18). Health behaviors (in particular, physical activity) and central adiposity appeared to partially mediate this relationship.

CONCLUSIONS--Our findings suggest that characteristics of the physical, social, and economic aspects of local areas influence diabetes risk. Future research should focus on identifying the aspects of local environment that are associated with diabetes risk and how they might be modified.

Framingham risk prediction equations for incidence of cardiovascular disease using detailed measures for smoking

Current prediction models for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence incorporate smoking as a dichotomous yes/no measure. However, the risk of CVD associated with smoking also varies with the intensity and duration of smoking and there is a strong association between time since quitting and the risk of disease onset. This study aims to develop improved risk prediction equations for CVD incidence incorporating intensity and duration of smoking and time since quitting. The risk of developing a first CVD event was evaluated using a Cox’s model for participants in the Framingham offspring cohort who attended the fourth examination (1988–92) between the ages of 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD (n=3751). The full models based on the smoking variables and other risk factors, and reduced models based on the smoking variables and non-laboratory risk factors demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The incorporation of both time since quitting among past smokers and pack-years among current smokers resulted in better predictive performance as compared to a dichotomous current/non-smoker measure and a current/quitter/never smoker measure. Compared to never smokers, the risk of CVD incidence increased with pack-years. Risk among those quitting more than five years prior to the baseline exam and within five years prior to the baseline exam were similar and twice as high as that of never smokers. A CVD risk equation incorporating the effects of pack-years and time since quitting provides an improved tool to quantify risk and guide preventive care.

The health loss from ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage : evidence from the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS)

Background People suffering different types of stroke have differing demographic characteristics and survival. However, current estimates of disease burden are based on the same underlying assumptions irrespective of stroke type. We hypothesized that average Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) lost from stroke would be different for ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).

Methods We used 1 and 5-year data collected from patients with first-ever stroke participating in the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS). We calculated case fatality rates, health-adjusted life expectancy, and quality-of-life (QoL) weights specific to each age and gender category. Lifetime 'health loss' for first-ever ischemic stroke and ICH surviving 28-days for the 2004 Australian population cohort was then estimated. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and sensitivity analyses (SA) were used to assess the impact of varying input parameters e.g. case fatality and QoL weights.

Results Paired QoL data at 1 and 5 years were available for 237 NEMESIS participants. Extrapolating NEMESIS rates, 31,539 first-ever strokes were expected for Australia in 2004. Average discounted (3%) QALYs lost per first-ever stroke were estimated to be 5.09 (SD 0.20; SA 5.49) for ischemic stroke (n = 27,660) and 6.17 (SD 0.26; SA 6.45) for ICH (n = 4,291; p < 0.001). QALYs lost also differed according to gender for both subtypes (ischemic stroke: males 4.69 SD 0.38, females 5.51 SD 0.46; ICH: males 5.82 SD 0.67, females 6.50 SD 0.40).

Discussion People with ICH incurred greater loss of health over a lifetime than people with ischemic stroke. This is explained by greater stroke related case fatality at a younger age, but longer life expectancy with disability after the first 12 months for people with ICH. Thus, studies of disease burden in stroke should account for these differences between subtype and gender. Otherwise, in countries where ICH is more common, health loss for stroke may be underestimated. Similar to other studies of this type, the generalisability of the results may be limited. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were used to provide a plausible range of variation for Australia. In countries with demographic and life expectancy characteristics comparable to Australia, our QoL weights may be reasonably applicable.