Changing dominance of key plant species across a Mediterranean climate region: implications for fuel types and future fire regimes

Herbaceous and woody plants represent different fuel types in flammable ecosystems, due to contrasting patterns of growth and flammability in response to productivity (moisture availability). However, other factors, such as soil type, fire regimes and competitive interactions may also influence the relative composition of herbaceous and woody plants within a community. The Mediterranean climate region of south eastern Australia is transitional between two contrasting fuel systems; herbaceous dominated in the dry north, versus woody plant dominated shrublands in the relatively moist south. Across the rainfall gradient of the region, there are confounded changes in dominant soil types and fire frequency. We used model-subset selection using Akaike's Information Criterion to examine potential driving mechanisms of community compositional change from herbaceous (e.g. Triodia scariosa, Austrostipa sp.) to woody plants (e.g. Beyeria opaca, Leptospermum coriaceum, Acacia ligulata) by measuring relative cover across combinations of rainfall, time since the last fire (TSF) and soil type. We examined the relative influence of environmental versus competitive interactions on determining the cover of perennial hummock grass, T. scariosa, and co-occurring woody shrubs. Rainfall and soil types, rather than competition, were the over-arching determinants of the relative cover of grasses and shrubs. Given the sensitivity to rainfall, our results indicate there is strong potential for the nature of fuel, flammability and fire regimes to be altered in the future via climate change in this region.

Successional specialization in a reptile community cautions against widespread planned burning and complete fire suppression

Summary: Conservation of biodiversity in fire-prone regions depends on understanding responses to fire in animal communities and the mechanisms governing these responses. We collated data from an Australian semi-arid woodland reptile community (4796 individuals captured over 6 years) to: (i) determine the ability of commonly used shorter-term (2 years) surveys to detect reptile responses to time since fire (TSF) and (ii) investigate whether ecological traits of species reliably predicted their responses to fire. Of 16 reptile species analysed, four had responses to TSF consistent with shorter-term surveys and three showed no response to TSF. Nine species had responses to TSF not detected in previous studies using smaller but substantial subsets of the same data. Among the 13 affected species, times of peak abundance ranged from 1 to 50 years after fire. Nocturnal, burrowing species tended to be early successional and leaf-litter dwellers to be late successional, but these were only weak trends. Synthesis and applications. We found only limited support for a generalizable, trait-based model of succession in reptiles. However, our study revealed that the majority of common reptile species in our study region specialize on a post-fire successional stage and may therefore become threatened if homogeneous fire regimes predominate. Our study highlights the importance of interpreting results from time- or sample-limited fire studies of reptiles with the knowledge that many ecological responses may not have been detected. In such cases, an adaptive or precautionary approach to fire management may be necessary. We found only limited support for a generalizable, trait-based model of succession in reptiles. However, our study revealed that the majority of common reptile species in our study region specialize on a post-fire successional stage and may therefore become threatened if homogeneous fire regimes predominate. Our study highlights the importance of interpreting results from time- or sample-limited fire studies of reptiles with the knowledge that many ecological responses may not have been detected. In such cases, an adaptive or precautionary approach to fire management may be necessary.

Identifying the location of fire refuges in wet forest ecosystems

The increasing frequency of large, high-severity fires threatens the survival of old-growth specialist fauna in fire-prone forests. Within topographically diverse montane forests, areas that experience less severe or fewer fires compared with those prevailing in the landscape may present unique resource opportunities enabling old-growth specialist fauna to survive. Statistical landscape models that identify the extent and distribution of potential fire refuges may assist land managers to incorporate these areas into relevant biodiversity conservation strategies. We used a case study in an Australian wet montane forest to establish how predictive fire simulation models can be interpreted as management tools to identify potential fire refuges. We examined the relationship between the probability of fire refuge occurrence as predicted by an existing fire refuge model and fire severity experienced during a large wildfire. We also examined the extent to which local fire severity was influenced by fire severity in the surrounding landscape. We used a combination of statistical approaches, including generalized linear modeling, variogram analysis, and receiver operating characteristics and area under the curve analysis (ROC AUC). We found that the amount of unburned habitat and the factors influencing the retention and location of fire refuges varied with fire conditions. Under extreme fire conditions, the distribution of fire refuges was limited to only extremely sheltered, fire-resistant regions of the landscape. During extreme fire conditions, fire severity patterns were largely determined by stochastic factors that could not be predicted by the model. When fire conditions were moderate, physical landscape properties appeared to mediate fire severity distribution. Our study demonstrates that land managers can employ predictive landscape fire models to identify the broader climatic and spatial domain within which fire refuges are likely to be present. It is essential that within these envelopes, forest is protected from logging, roads, and other developments so that the ecological processes related to the establishment and subsequent use of fire refuges are maintained.

Reptile responses to fire and the risk of post-disturbance sampling bias

Altered fire regimes are a driver of biodiversity decline. To plan effective management, we need to know how species are influenced by fire and to develop theory describing fire responses. Animal responses to fire are usually measured using methods that rely on animal activity, but animal activity may vary with time since fire, potentially biasing results. Using a novel approach for detecting bias in the pit-fall trap method, we found that leaf-litter dependent reptiles were more active up to 6 weeks after fire, giving a misleading impression of abundance. This effect was not discovered when modelling detectability with zero-inflated binomial models. Two species without detection bias showed early-successional responses to time since fire, consistent with a habitat-accommodation succession model. However, a habitat specialist did not have the predicted low abundance after fire due to increased post-fire movement and non-linear recovery of a key habitat component. Interactions between fire and other processes therefore must be better understood to predict reptile responses to changing fire-regimes. We conclude that there is substantial bias when trapping reptiles after fire, with species that are otherwise hard to detect appearing to be abundant. Studies that use a survey method based on animal activity such as bird calls or animal movements, likely face a similar risk of bias when comparing recently-disturbed with control sites.