Macroeconomic impact of foreign aid to developing countries

The thesis looks at the macroeconomic impact of foreign aid. It is specially concerned with aid's impact on the public sector of less developed countries < LDCs> . Since the overwhelming majority of aid is directed to the public sector of LDCs, one can only understand the broader macroeconomic impact of aid if one first understands its impact on this sector. To this end, the thesis econometrically estimates " fiscal response" models of aid. These models, in essence, attempt to shed light on public sector fiscal behaviour in the presence of aid inflows, being specially concerned with the way aid is used to finance various categories of expenditures. The underlaying concern is to extent to which aid is " fungible" -that is, whether it finances consumption expenditure and reductions in taxation revenue in LDCs. A number of alternative models are derived from a utility maximisation framework. These alternatives reflect different assumptions regarding the behaviour of LDC public sectors and relate to the endogeniety to exogeniety> of aid, whether or not recurrent expenditure is financed from domestic borrowing and the determination of domestic borrowing. The original frameworks of earlier studies are extended in a number of ways, including the use of a public sector utility function which is fully consistent with expected maximising behaviour. Estimates of these models' parameters are obtained using both time-series and cross-section data, dating from the 1960s, for Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and the Philippines. Both structural and reduced-form equations are estimated. Results suggest that foreign aid to the official sector> is indeed fungible, albeit at different levels. Moreover, the overall impact of aid on public sector investment, consumption, domestic borrowing and taxation varies between countries. Generally speaking, aid leads to increases in investment and consumption expenditure, but reduces taxation and domestic borrowing. Comparative analysis does, however, show that these results are highly sensitive to alternative behavioural assumptions and, therefore, model specification.

Primary mental health care reform in Australia : the vision and the reality

Reports on primary mental health care reform in Australia 1991-2001 and the involvement of general practioners as the key providers. Investigates the degree to which the vision of policy makers and key stakeholders for a more integrated and effective system had been achieved. Findings suggested there is a considerable mismatch between the policy vision and the implementation reality and that the current system falls short of providing the support and systemic changes necessary for GPs to provide effective mental health care.

Aid to conflict-affected countries : lessons for donors

Investigates how aid might prevent conflicts from breaking out or becoming worse.

Aid to conflict-affected countries : lessons for donors

The first section looks at the implications of conflict for aid effectiveness and selectivity. We argue that, while aid is generally effective in promoting growth and by implication reducing poverty, it is more effective in promoting growth in post-conflict countries. We then consider the implications of these findings for donor selectivity models and for assessment of donor performance in allocating development aid among recipient countries. We argue that, while further research on aid effectiveness in post-conflict scenarios is needed, existing selectivity models should be augmented with, inter alia, post-conflict variables, and donors should be evaluated on the basis, inter alia, of the share of their aid budgets allocated to countries experiencing post-conflict episodes. We also argue for aid delivered in the form of projects to countries with weak institutions in early post-conflict years. The second section focuses on policies for donors operating in conflict-affected countries. We set out five of the most important principles: (1) focus on broad-based recovery from war; (2) to achieve a broad-based recovery, get involved before the conflict ends; (3) focus on poverty, but avoid ‘wish lists’; (4) help to reduce insecurity so aid can contribute more effectively to growth and poverty reduction; and (5) in economic reform, focus on improving public expenditure management and revenue mobilisation. The third section concludes by emphasising the fact that there is no hard or fast dividing line between ‘war’ and ‘peace’ and that it may take many years for a society to become truly ‘post’-conflict’. Donors, therefore, need to prepare for the long haul.

Mid-Holocene (4200 kyr BP) mass mortalities in Mauritius (Mascarenes): insular vertebrates resilient to climatic extremes but vulnerable to human impact

In the light of the currently increasing drought frequency and water scarcity on oceanic islands, it is crucial for the conservation of threatened insular vertebrates to assess how they will be affected. A 4000 yr old fossil assemblage in the Mare Aux Songes (MAS), southwest Mauritius, Mascarene Islands, contains bones of 100 000+ individual vertebrates, dominated by two species of giant tortoises Cylindraspis triserrata and C. inepta, the dodo Raphus cucullatus, and 20 other vertebrate species (Rijsdijk, Hume, Bunnik, Florens, Baider, Shapiro et al. (2009) Mid-Holocene vertebrate bone Concentration-Lagerstätte on oceanic island Mauritius provides a window into the ecosystem of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus). Quaternary Science Reviews 28: 14–24). Nine radiocarbon dates of bones statistically overlap and suggest mass mortality occurred between 4235 and 4100 cal. yr BP. The mortality period coincides with a widely recognized megadrought event. Our multidisciplinary investigations combining geological, paleontological and hydrological evidence suggests the lake was located in a dry coastal setting and had desiccated during this period. Oxygen isotope data from a Uranium-series dated stalagmite from Rodrigues, an island 560 km east of Mauritius, supports this scenario by showing frequently alternating dry and wet periods lasting for decades between 4122 and 2260 cal. yr BP. An extreme drought resulted in falling water-tables at MAS and elsewhere on the island, perhaps deprived these insular vertebrates of fresh water, which led to natural mass mortalities and possibly to extirpations. In spite of these events, all insular species survived until at least the seventeenth century, confirming their resistance to climatic extremes. Despite this, the generally exponential increase of combined human impacts on islands including loss of geodiversity, habitats, and stocks of fresh water, there will be less environmental safe-haven options for insular endemic and native vertebrates during future megadrought conditions; and therefore will be more prone to extinction.

Recognition and response to human movement contained in motion capture data using the Self Organising Map

Neural Networks have been used successfully for recognition of human gestures in many applications including analysis of motion capture data. This paper investigates the potential for using the same methods for both recognition and synthesising responses in relation to movement contained in motion capture sequences.