Application of sequential nonparametric confidence bands in finance

In a nonparametric setting, the functional form of the relationship between the response variable and the associated predictor variables is assumed to be unknown when data is fitted to the model. Non-parametric regression models can be used for the same types of applications such as estimation, prediction, calibration, and optimization that traditional regression models are used for. The main aim of nonparametric regression is to highlight an important structure in the data without any assumptions about the shape of an underlying regression function. Hence the nonparametric approach allows the data to speak for itself. Applications of sequential procedures to a nonparametric regression model at a given point are considered.

The primary goal of sequential analysis is to achieve a given accuracy by using the smallest possible sample sizes. These sequential procedures allow an experimenter to make decisions based on the smallest number of observations without compromising accuracy. In the nonparametric regression model with a random design based on independent and identically distributed pairs of observations (X ,Y ), where the regression function m(x) is given bym(x) = E(Y X = x), estimation of the Nadaraya-Watson kernel estimator (m (x)) NW and local linear kernel estimator (m (x)) LL for the curve m(x) is considered. In order to obtain asymptotic confidence intervals form(x), two stage sequential procedure is used under which some asymptotic properties of Nadaraya-Watson and local linear estimators have been obtained.

The proposed methodology is first tested with the help of simulated data from linear and nonlinear functions. Encouraged by the preliminary findings from simulation results, the proposed method is applied to estimate the nonparametric regression curve of CAPM.

Sequential fixed-width confidence bands for kernel regression estimation

We consider a random design model based on independent and identically distributed (iid) pairs of observations (Xi, Yi), where the regression function m(x) is given by m(x) = E(Yi|Xi = x) with one independent variable. In a nonparametric setting the aim is to produce a reasonable approximation to the unknown function m(x) when we have no precise information about the form of the true density, f(x) of X. We describe an estimation procedure of non-parametric regression model at a given point by some appropriately constructed fixed-width (2d) confidence interval with the confidence coefficient of at least 1−. Here, d(> 0) and 2 (0, 1) are two preassigned values. Fixed-width confidence intervals are developed using both Nadaraya-Watson and local linear kernel estimators of nonparametric regression with data-driven bandwidths.

The sample size was optimized using the purely and two-stage sequential procedure together with asymptotic properties of the Nadaraya-Watson and local linear estimators. A large scale simulation study was performed to compare their coverage accuracy. The numerical results indicate that the confidence bands based on the local linear estimator have the best performance than those constructed by using Nadaraya-Watson estimator. However both estimators are shown to have asymptotically correct coverage properties.

Two-stage sequential procedure for nonparametric regression estimation

In nonparametric statistics the functional form of the relationship between the response variable and its associated predictor variables is unspecified but it is assumed to be a smooth function. We develop a procedure for constructing a fixed width confidence interval for the predicted value at a specified point of the independent variable. The optimal sample size for constructing this interval is obtained using a two stage sequential procedure which relies on some asymptotic properties of the Nadaraya--Watson and local linear estimators. Finally, a large scale simulation study demonstrates the applicability of the developed procedure for small and moderate sample sizes. The procedure developed here should find wide applicability since many practical problems which arise in industry involve estimating an unknown function.

Sample size determination for kernel regression estimation using sequential fixed-width confidence bands

We consider a random design model based on independent and identically distributed pairs of observations (Xi, Yi), where the regression function m(x) is given by m(x) = E(Yi|Xi = x) with one independent variable. In a nonparametric setting the aim is to produce a reasonable approximation to the unknown function m(x) when we have no precise information about the form of the true density, f(x) of X. We describe an estimation procedure of non-parametric regression model at a given point by some appropriately constructed fixed-width (2d) confidence interval with the confidence coefficient of at least 1−. Here, d(> 0) and 2 (0, 1) are two preassigned values. Fixed-width confidence intervals are developed using both Nadaraya-Watson and local linear kernel estimators of nonparametric regression with data-driven bandwidths. The sample size was optimized using the purely and two-stage sequential procedures together with asymptotic properties of the Nadaraya-Watson and local linear estimators. A large scale simulation study was performed to compare their coverage accuracy. The numerical results indicate that the confi dence bands based on the local linear estimator have the better performance than those constructed by using Nadaraya-Watson estimator. However both estimators are shown to have asymptotically correct coverage properties.

Missing value estimation for mixed-attribute data sets

Missing data imputation is a key issue in learning from incomplete data. Various techniques have been developed with great successes on dealing with missing values in data sets with homogeneous attributes (their independent attributes are all either continuous or discrete). This paper studies a new setting of missing data imputation, i.e., imputing missing data in data sets with heterogeneous attributes (their independent attributes are of different types), referred to as imputing mixed-attribute data sets. Although many real applications are in this setting, there is no estimator designed for imputing mixed-attribute data sets. This paper first proposes two consistent estimators for discrete and continuous missing target values, respectively. And then, a mixture-kernel-based iterative estimator is advocated to impute mixed-attribute data sets. The proposed method is evaluated with extensive experiments compared with some typical algorithms, and the result demonstrates that the proposed approach is better than these existing imputation methods in terms of classification accuracy and root mean square error (RMSE) at different missing ratios.

Software reliability growth models based on local polynomial modeling with kernel smoothing

Software reliability growth models (SRGMs) are extensively employed in software engineering to assess the reliability of software before their release for operational use. These models are usually parametric functions obtained by statistically fitting parametric curves, using Maximum Likelihood estimation or Least–squared method, to the plots of the cumulative number of failures observed N(t) against a period of systematic testing time t. Since the 1970s, a very large number of SRGMs have been proposed in the reliability and software engineering literature and these are often very complex, reflecting the involved testing regime that often took place during the software development process. In this paper we extend some of our previous work by adopting a nonparametric approach to SRGM modeling based on local polynomial modeling with kernel smoothing. These models require very few assumptions, thereby facilitating the estimation process and also rendering them more relevant under a wide variety of situations. Finally, we provide numerical examples where these models will be evaluated and compared.

Non-monotone averaging aggregation

We advance the theory of aggregation operators and introduce non-monotone aggregation methods based on minimization of a penalty for inputs disagreements. The application in mind is processing data sets which may contain noisy values. Our aim is to filter out noise while at the same time preserve signs of unusual values. We review various methods of robust estimators of location, and then introduce a new estimator based on penalty minimisation.

A panel regression method for quantifying the convergence of house prices

The convergence among house prices has attracted much attention from researchers. Previous research mainly utilised a time-series regression method to investigate convergences of house prices, which may ignore the heterogeneity of houses across cities. This research developed a panel regression method, by which the heterogeneity of house prices can be captured. Seemingly unrelated regression estimators were also adapted to deal with the contemporary correlations across cities. Investigation of the convergence among house prices in the Australian capital cities was carried out by using the developed panel regression method. Results suggested that house prices converge in Sydney, Adelaide and Hobart but diverge in Darwin.

Global non-smooth optimization in robust multivariate regression

Robust regression in statistics leads to challenging optimization problems. Here, we study one such problem, in which the objective is non-smooth, non-convex and expensive to calculate. We study the numerical performance of several derivative-free optimization algorithms with the aim of computing robust multivariate estimators. Our experiences demonstrate that the existing algorithms often fail to deliver optimal solutions. We introduce three new methods that use Powell's derivative-free algorithm. The proposed methods are reliable and can be used when processing very large data sets containing outliers.

A panel error correction approach to explore spatial correlation patterns of the dominant housing market in Australian capital cities

Purpose - A panel error correction model has been developed to investigate the spatial correlation patterns among house prices. This paper aims to identify a dominant housing market in the ripple down process. Design/methodology/approach - Seemingly unrelated regression estimators are adapted to deal with the contemporary correlations and heterogeneity across cities. Impulse response functions are subsequently implemented to simulate the spatial correlation patterns. The newly developed approach is then applied to the Australian capital city house price indices. Findings - The results suggest that Melbourne should be recognised as the dominant housing market. Four levels were classified within the Australian house price interconnections, namely: Melbourne; Adelaide, Canberra, Perth and Sydney; Brisbane and Hobart; and Darwin. Originality/value - This research develops a panel regression framework in addressing the spatial correlation patterns of house prices across cities. The ripple-down process of house price dynamics across cities was explored by capturing both the contemporary correlations and heterogeneity, and by identifying the dominant housing market.

Image reduction operators based on non-monotonic averaging functions

Image reduction is a crucial task in image processing, underpinning many practical applications. This work proposes novel image reduction operators based on non-monotonic averaging aggregation functions. The technique of penalty function minimisation is used to derive a novel mode-like estimator capable of identifying the most appropriate pixel value for representing a subset of the original image. Performance of this aggregation function and several traditional robust estimators of location are objectively assessed by applying image reduction within a facial recognition task. The FERET evaluation protocol is applied to confirm that these non-monotonic functions are able to sustain task performance compared to recognition using nonreduced images, as well as significantly improve performance on query images corrupted by noise. These results extend the state of the art in image reduction based on aggregation functions and provide a basis for efficiency and accuracy improvements in practical computer vision applications.

On some properties of weighted averaging with variable weights

Density-based means have been recently proposed as a method for dealing with outliers in the stream processing of data. Derived from a weighted arithmetic mean with variable weights that depend on the location of all data samples, these functions are not monotonic and hence cannot be classified as aggregation functions. In this article we establish the weak monotonicity of this class of averaging functions and use this to establish robust generalisations of these means. Specifically, we find that as proposed, the density based means are only robust to isolated outliers. However, by using penalty based formalisms of averaging functions and applying more sophisticated and robust density estimators, we are able to define a broader family of density based means that are more effective at filtering both isolated and clustered outliers. © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Weakly monotone averaging functions

Averaging behaviour of aggregation functions depends on the fundamental property of monotonicity with respect to all arguments. Unfortunately this is a limiting property that ensures that many important averaging functions are excluded from the theoretical framework. We propose a definition for weakly monotone averaging functions to encompass the averaging aggregation functions in a framework with many commonly used non-monotonic means. Weakly monotonic averages are robust to outliers and noise, making them extremely important in practical applications. We show that several robust estimators of location are actually weakly monotone and we provide sufficient conditions for weak monotonicity of the Lehmer and Gini means and some mixture functions. In particular we show that mixture functions with Gaussian kernels, which arise frequently in image and signal processing applications, are actually weakly monotonic averages. Our concept of weak monotonicity provides a sound theoretical and practical basis for understanding both monotone and non-monotone averaging functions within the same framework. This allows us to effectively relate these previously disparate areas of research and gain a deeper understanding of averaging aggregation methods. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014.

Does oil price volatility matter for Asian emerging economies?

This article investigates the impact of oil price volatility on six major emerging economies in Asia using time-series cross-section and time-series econometric techniques. To assess the robustness of the findings, we further implement such heterogeneous panel data estimation methods as Mean Group (MG), Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimators to allow for cross-sectional dependence. The empirical results reveal that oil price volatility has a detrimental effect on these emerging economies. In the short run, oil price volatility influenced output growth in China and affected both GDP growth and inflation in India. In the Philippines, oil price volatility impacted on inflation, but in Indonesia, it impacted on both GDP growth and inflation before and after the Asian financial crisis. In Malaysia, oil price volatility impacted on GDP growth, although there is notably little feedback from the opposite side. For Thailand, oil price volatility influenced output growth prior to the Asian financial crisis, but the impact disappeared after the crisis. It appears that oil subsidization by the Thai Government via introduction of the oil fund played a significant role in improving the economic performance by lessening the adverse effects of oil price volatility on macroeconomic indicators.