Uncertainty quantification for wind farm power generation

Accurate forecasting of wind farm power generation is essential for successful operation and management of wind farms and to minimize risks associated with their integration into energy systems. However, due to the inherent wind intermittency, wind power forecasts are highly prone to error and often far from being perfect. The purpose of this paper is to develop statistical methods for quantifying uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts. Prediction intervals (PIs) with a prescribed confidence level are constructed using the delta and bootstrap methods for neural network forecasts. The moving block bootstrap method is applied to preserve the correlation structure in wind power observations. The effectiveness and efficiency of these two methods for uncertainty quantification is examined using two month datasets taken from a wind farm in Australia. It is demonstrated that while all constructed PIs are theoretically valid, bootstrap PIs are more informative than delta PIs, and are therefore more useful for decision-making.

Experimental and simulation study of the impact of increased photovoltaic integration with the grid

The abundance, availability, and climate-friendly characteristics of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy encourage nations around the globe to adopt it to assist in overcoming global warming as well as build a sustainable society for the future. The intermittent nature of solar energy generation and the associated power electronic inverters with connected consumer loads creates a number of potential challenges in integrating large-scale PV into the grid that affects power quality of the distribution networks. This paper investigates the impacts of varying PV integration into the grid through experimental and simulation studies. Initially, several experiments were conducted with varying PV penetration and load conditions using the Renewable Energy Integration Facility at CSIRO, Newcastle, Australia. Later, a simulation model was developed that mimics the experimental facility used at CSIRO to investigate the adverse impacts on integrating large-scale PV into the grid using the power system simulation software PSS Sincal. Experimental and simulation analyses clearly indicate that integration of PV into the grid causes power quality issues such as voltage instability, harmonic injection, and low power factor into the networks and the level of these impacts increases with the increase of PV penetration. © 2014 AIP Publishing LLC.

An optimized mean variance estimation method for uncertainty quantification of wind power forecasts

A statistical optimized technique for rapid development of reliable prediction intervals (PIs) is presented in this study. The mean-variance estimation (MVE) technique is employed here for quantification of uncertainties related with wind power predictions. In this method, two separate neural network models are used for estimation of wind power generation and its variance. A novel PI-based training algorithm is also presented to enhance the performance of the MVE method and improve the quality of PIs. For an in-depth analysis, comprehensive experiments are conducted with seasonal datasets taken from three geographically dispersed wind farms in Australia. Five confidence levels of PIs are between 50% and 90%. Obtained results show while both traditional and optimized PIs are hypothetically valid, the optimized PIs are much more informative than the traditional MVE PIs. The informativeness of these PIs paves the way for their application in trouble-free operation and smooth integration of wind farms into energy systems. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rationale for the use of DC microgrids: feasibility, efficiency and protection analysis

Electrical power systems are undergoing highly significant changes in their structures. The emergence of renewable energy units in the power generation sector, the use of high-voltage DC in the power transmission sector, and the prevalence of islanded or integrated microgrids in the distribution sector are the strongest evidence supporting this claim. These changes are mostly the consequences of the increasing energy demand rate, climate change, and environmental challenges, as well as the high investment and maintenance cost of the previous structures. Considering these new conditions and according to the recent development in DC/DC conversion topologies and control techniques, different studies have been conducted on how and why DC microgrids outperform AC microgrids. This study discusses the feasibility of the DC microgrid system according to recent developments in power systems. The efficiency and power loss reduction in DC distribution systems are then analyzed, some of the common strategies and devices for protection systems in such networks are reviewed, and the possible and existing challenges in developing the DC microgrids are highlighted. The mathematical calculations and theories for this evaluation are presented to determine the reliable justification for selecting the appropriate microgrid systems.

A comparative study on procedure and state of the art of conventional maximum power point tracking techniques for photovoltaic system

Due to the increasing world energy demand, renewable energy systems have been significantly applied in the power generation sector. Among the renewable energy options, photovoltaic system is one of the most popular resources which has been experiencing a huge attention during recent decades. The remarkable advantages, such as static and movement free characteristics, low maintenance costs, and longevity are the primary factors for the popularity of solar generation in the late years. Nevertheless, the low PV conversion efficiency in one side and high PV material cost in the other side have made PV generation comparably expensive system. Consequently, a capable maximum power point tracking (MPPT) is all important to elicit the maximum energy from the production of PV systems. Different researches have been conducted to design a fast, simple and robust MPPT technique under uniform conditions. However, due to the series and parallel connection of PV modules and according to the use of bypass diodes, in the structure of PV modules, a conventional techniques are unable to track a true MPP. Recently, several studies have been undertaken to modify these conventional methods and enable them to track the global MPP under rapidly changing environments and partial shading (PS) conditions. This report concentrates on the state of the art of these methods and their evolution to apply under PS conditions. The recent developments and modifications are analyzed through a comparison based on design complexity, cost, speed and the ability to track the MPP under rapid environmental variations and PS conditions.

Quasiclassical trajectory calculations of collisional energy transfer in propane systems: multiple direct-encounter hard-sphere model

Quasiclassical trajectory calculations of collisional energy transfer from highly vibrationally excited propane + rare gas systems are reported. This work extends our hard-sphere model (A. Linhananta and K. F. Lim, Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys., 2000, 2, 1385) to examine the variation of the internal energy during collisions with a rare bath gas. This was accomplished by recording the vibrational and rotational energy of propane after each atom–atom encounter during trajectory simulations of propane + rare gas systems. This provides detailed information of the energy flow during a collision. It was found that collisions with small number of encounters transfer energy efficiently, whereas those with many encounters do not. Detailed analyses reveal that the former collisions arise from trajectories with high initial impact parameter, whereas the latter have small initial impact parameter. The reason behind this is the dependence of collision energy transfer (CET) of large polyatomic molecules on their shape. This is connected to the well-known role of rotational energy transfer (RET) as a gateway for CET.

Net energy analysis of solar and conventional domestic hot water systems in Melbourne, Australia

It is commonly assumed that solar hot water systems save energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The net energy requirement of solar hot water systems has rarely been analysed, including their embodied energy. The extent to which solar hot water systems save energy compared to conventional systems in Melbourne, Australia, is shown through a comparative net energy analysis. It was shown that the embodied energy component of the net energy requirement of solar and conventional hot water systems was insignificant. The solar hot water systems provided a net energy saving compared to the conventional systems after 0.5–2 years, for electric- and gas-boosted systems respectively.

CH2 energy harvesting systems : economic use and efficiency

This paper looks at the City of Melbourne's new office development CH₂ as a case study of world class energy performance. In particular, the integrated design of conventionally independent systems has led to the potential to deliver significant savings to the Council and to deliver better environmental conditions to building occupants that in turn may contribute to satisfaction, well-being and Productivity. It is concluded that this project has the potential
to be an iconic example of effective implementation of ESD (environmental sustainable design) principles and therefore act as a demonstration project to others. Energy efficiency of more than 50% of current benchmarks for Melbourne is effected. Energy harvesting is defined as arising from squander, waste and nature, which is a new concept introduced in this paper to better describe the design decision process.

Life-cycle energy analysis of building integrated photovoltaic systems (BiPVs) with heat recovery unit

Building integrated photovoltaic (BiPV) systems generate electricity, but also heat, which is typically wasted and also reduces the efficiency of generation. A heat recovery unit can be combined with a BiPV system to take advantage of this waste heat, thus providing cogeneration. Two different photovoltaic (PV) cell types were combined with a heat recovery unit and analysed in terms of their life-cycle energy consumption to determine the energy payback period. A net energy analysis of these PV systems has previously been performed, but recent improvements in the data used for this study allow for a more comprehensive assessment of the combined energy used throughout the entire life-cycle of these systems to be performed. Energy payback periods between 4 and 16.5 years were found, depending on the BiPV system. The energy embodied in PV systems is significant, emphasised here due to the innovative use of national average input–output (I–O) data to fill gaps in traditional life-cycle inventories, i.e. hybrid analysis. These findings provide an insight into the net energy savings that are possible with a well-designed and managed BiPV system.

Net energy analysis of solar and conventional domestic hot water systems in Melbourne, Australia

It is commonly assumed that solar hot water systems save energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Very rarely has the life-cycle energy requirements of solar hot water systems been analysed, including their embodied energy. The extent to which solar hot water systems save energy compared to conventional systems in Melbourne, Australia, is shown through a comparative net energy analysis. The solar systems provided a net energy saving compared to the conventional systems after 0.5 to 2 years, for electricity and gas systems respectively.

Modelling of fabric energy storage systems - a review

Fabric energy storage (FES) systems have gained in popularity in the recent years in response to the demand for energy efficient buildings. The dynamic heat transfer mechanisms of an FES require specialised techniques to predict its thermal performance. This requirement has been one of the barriers to the wider use of FES systems. Based on the research literature, this paper presents a critical review of the published mathematical models of FES systems. The paper discusses the usefulness of these models based on the following criteria: the inputs required; the accuracy of predictions; the ability to link with commercially available simulation software: and the degree of difficulty in using the models. The review found that the currently available mathematical models are either not able to predict the thermal behaviour of a building space with an FES system reliably or the models are too complicated and/or require too much specialised knowledge to make them useful.

Advanced fabric energy storage systems in Australia

There is a growing interest in the use of advanced fabric energy storage (FES) systems in Australia. The influence of slab thickness and ventilation rate on the annual thermal load, and maximum heating and cooling demands for an office module using a ventilated hollow core concrete slab system has been investigated by simulation. Airflow through the panels was set at 1, 2 or 4 air changes per hour (ACH) for slab thicknesses of 205, 220 and 300 mm. These configurations were simulated using two different FES operational strategies for six capital cities in mainland Australia. The simulations show that FES systems can offer either energy and/or peak load savings in almost all locations investigated. Overall, compared to a conventional AC system, the tempering of incoming fresh air combined with night flushing of the FES system appears to be the most successful operational strategy.

Performance optimization for energy-aware adaptive checkpointing in embedded real-time systems

Using additional store-checkpoinsts (SCPs) and compare-checkpoints (CCPs), we present an adaptive checkpointing for double modular redundancy (DMR) in this paper. The proposed approach can dynamically adjust the checkpoint intervals. We also design methods to calculate the optimal numbers of checkpoints, which can minimize the average execution time of tasks. Further, the adaptive checkpointing is combined with the DVS (dynamic voltage scaling) scheme to achieve energy reduction. Simulation results show that, compared with the previous methods, the proposed approach significantly increases the likelihood of timely task completion and reduces energy consumption in the presence of faults.

Solar versus fossil fuels : A net energy analysis of domestic solar hot water systems in Australia

It is commonly assumed that solar hot water systems save energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional electric and gas hot water systems. Very rarely has the life-cycle energy requirements (including the embodied energy of manufacture) of solar hot water systems been analysed. The extent to which solar hot water systems can save energy compared to conventional electric or gas hot water systems can be shown through a comparative net energy analysis. This method determines the ‘energy payback period’, including consideration of the difference in operational energy savings and energy embodied in the devices relative to a base case. Dr Robert Crawford, Deakin University, Australia presents the results of a net energy analysis that compared solar and conventional hot water systems for a southern (Melbourne) and a northern (Brisbane) Australian climate.