Determinants of Central bank independence and governance : problems and policy implications

Central bank independence and governance (CBIG) is a term subject to conflicting definitions and so its related studies are difficult to compare. This paper therefore focuses on developing of a more useable definition, and an index model identifying the determinants of independence and governance and their possible policy implications. It also examines various independence measurement tools such as ranking and index. The index model resulting centres on key central bank independence and corporate governance issues, such as, legal aspects, political aspects, price stability objective aspects, exchange rate policy aspects, monetary policy and deficit financing aspects and finally, transparency and accountability aspects.

Impacts of monetary policies on housing affordability in Australia

Housing affordability has become a major policy issue in many countries across the world since the rapid inflation of house prices. This paper empirically investigates how monetary policies affect housing affordability in Australia from 1998 to 2009. Three primary variables associated with the housing sector and monetary policy, which are money supply, interest rates and house prices, are studied for all eight capital cities in Australia in this research. Shocks of such variables are identified by a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with restrictions that are consistent with economic theoretical framework. Based upon the analysis using the structural decomposition of impulse response on quarterly data, it can be discovered that the monetary policy plays an active role in housing affordability via adjustments of money supply and interest rates during the observed period in Australia. The empirical results from this research may be used for decision makers to determine money supply and interest rates from the perspective of housing affordability.

Post-growth policy instruments

This paper proposes a framework to evaluate post-growth policy instruments which gauges their capacity to lessen the pressure for growth emanating from the labour market and the state’s contradictory legitimisation and accumulation imperatives, whilst increasing societal well-being and reducing the biophysical throughput of the economy. It is argued that the most effective policies to do this are measures to reduce average working hours, expand low productivity sectors and reduce inequality. Specific policies instruments include public sector expansion and the promotion of cooperatives, the introduction of citizens’ basic income schemes, environmental tax reform, the abolition of fossil fuel subsidies, reforms to monetary policy, financial regulatory reform and the introduction of alternative measures of progress to gross domestic product.

Announcement effect on the credit spreads of US dollar Malaysian bonds

We find that international political events have more influence on the changes of bond yield spreads from Malaysian USD issues than domestic events. Significant results are consistent across different issues. The resignation by the former Prime Minister, Dr. Mahathir, however created mix response from the market. Using error correction model, this study also found the monetary policy by Federal Reserve have long term and significant impact on the behaviour of the Malaysian USD issues.

A critical analysis of central bank independence and governance in Australia and Bangladesh

This study examines central bank independence and governance (CBIG) in Bangladesh and Australia. It applies a unique index model of Ahsan, Skully and Wickramanayake (2008) to assess their respective legal, political, price stability objectives, exchange rate policies, monetary policy and deficit financing practices, transparency and accountability positions from 1991 to 2008. While the model shows CBIG is much weaker in Bangladesh than in Australia, the Bangladesh Bank’s CBIG shown considerable improvement over the period. These findings suggest that the Government of Bangladesh might learn from Australia’s experience with Reserve Bank of Australia and delegate further power and authority to Bangladesh Bank as well as lessen its political interference.

Central bank independence and governance in the South Asia

This paper constructs the central bank independence and governance (CBIG) index for eight South Asian countries and examines their relationship with inflation. This CBIG index is constructed following the unique model developed by Ahsan, Skully and Wickramanayake (2006). This index consists of total 26 variables; all variables together form the overall index and different sub-sets of these variables construct sub-indices (eg. legal; political; price stability objectives; exchange rate policy; monetary policy and deficit financing; and accountability and transparency).
Several countries have improved their CBIG in last fifteen years. The war torn Afghanistan have established a new central bank act in 2003 which has improved the standard of CBIG in the region. In recent time Nepal has made remarkable improvement in its ranking by allowing improved independence to its central bank. Bangladesh has taken lead in term of gradual CBIG improvement in last fifteen years. Sri Lanka, Indian and Pakistan are three countries always maintained a standard level of CBIG. Bhutan and Maldives showed less improvement among the countries. This paper also examines the statistical relationship between CBIG indices and inflation. The results indicate that there is a positive relationship between CBIG and inflation in the region which in contrary to normal expectation that inflation is one of the robust proxy of actual CBIG.

The role of agregate demand and supply shocks in a low-income country : evidence from Bangladesh

This paper explores the relative role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in affecting the output level and inflation rate in a low-income country vulnerable to various economic shocks. The study uses Bangladesh data, and following Cover et al (2006), employs a modification of the Blanchard-Quah (BQ) approach, in which the two shocks are allowed to be correlated. Strong evidence is found for the hypothesis that aggregate demand and supply shocks are interrelated in Bangladesh. For the case in which causality is assumed to be running from demand to supply shocks, it was found that an independent supply shock plays significant role for fluctuations in inflation, which was absent in the standard BQ model. The results suggest that a tightening of monetary policy may lead to an adverse effect on the long-run growth potential and some supply-side policies may be required to supplement contractionary monetary policy in combating inflation in Bangladesh.

Announcement effect on the credit spreads of US dollar Malaysian bonds

The main purpose of this paper is to extend the empirical research on the behavior of credit spreads on the USD denominated Malaysian bonds. We find that international political events have more influence on the changes of bond yield spreads from Malaysian USD issues than domestic events. Significant results are consistent across different issues. However, the resignation by the former Prime Minister, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, created a mixed response from the market. Using an error correction model, this study also found that the monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve has a long-term and significant impact on the behavior of the Malaysian USD issues. This study also provides further evidence that the current theoretical framework is sufficient to explain changes in the credit spread of bonds issued by the emerging market.

Least squares learning and the US Treasury bill rate

Understanding how agents formulate their expectations about Fed behavior is important for market participants because they can potentially use this information to make more accurate estimates of stock and bond prices. Although it is commonly assumed that agents learn over time, there is scant empirical evidence in support of this assumption. Thus, in this paper we test if the forecast of the three month T-bill rate in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is consistent with least squares learning when there are discrete shifts in monetary policy. We first derive the mean, variance and autocovariances of the forecast errors from a recursive least squares learning algorithm when there are breaks in the structure of the model. We then apply the Bai and Perron (1998) test for structural change to a forecasting model for the three month T-bill rate in order to identify changes in monetary policy. Having identified the policy regimes, we then estimate the implied biases in the interest rate forecasts within each regime. We find that when the forecast errors from the SPF are corrected for the biases due to shifts in policy, the forecasts are consistent with least squares learning. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Corrigendum to “Least squares learning and the US treasury bill rate” [Econ. Syst. 38 (2014) 194–204]

Understanding how agents formulate their expectations about Fed behavior is important for market participants because they can potentially use this information to make more accurate estimates of stock and bond prices. Although it is commonly assumed that agents learn over time, there is scant empirical evidence in support of this assumption. Thus, in this paper we test if the forecast of the three month T-bill rate in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is consistent with least squares learning when there are discrete shifts in monetary policy. We first derive the mean, variance and autocovariances of the forecast errors from a recursive least squares learning algorithm when there are breaks in the structure of the model. We then apply the Bai and Perron (1998) test for structural change to a forecasting model for the three month T-bill rate in order to identify changes in monetary policy. Having identified the policy regimes, we then estimate the implied biases in the interest rate forecasts within each regime. We find that when the forecast errors from the SPF are corrected for the biases due to shifts in policy, the forecasts are consistent with least squares learning.

Returns to scale, market power, and the nature of price rigidity in new keynesian models with self-fulfilling expectations

Increasing returns to scale and firms' market power are two potential sources of sunspot expectations in neoclassical models. We show that in New Keynesian models, returns to scale and market power can have fundamentally different implications for broad macroeconomic issues, including self-fulfilling expectations, depending on the nature of price rigidity. Our findings suggest that the design of stabilization monetary policy can depend on precise knowledge about the economy's real and nominal features. Therefore, a clear understanding of the specific economic environment and its relevance to monetary policymaking for ensuring macroeconomic stability can be an integrated part of monetary policy practice.

The Power of words: Central bank communication and currency markets.

This thesis investigates the effect of central banks communication on exchange rates. It is found that Bank of Canada speeches had a dampening effect on the Canadian dollar exchange rate while Reserve Bank of Australia speeches did not have an impact on the Australian dollar exchange rate.

Land retirement: a biodiversity policy for the rangelands of Western N.S.W.

In this article we examine land retirement as a biodiversity policy option for the rangelands of Western NSW, a region seriously under-represented in biodiversity provision. We argue that the use of policies that rely on moral suasion, education and minimal costsharing will not yield the level of on-farm biodiversity provision demanded by society. Instead, a much greater commitment to the use of monetary incentives to induce the voluntary cooperation and production of biodiversity is required. The analysis explains the importance in policy design of determining transparent, meaningful and achievable objectives in delivering cost-effective environmental outcomes. We propose a land retirement
policy that rakes account of environmental, economic and political criteria. Finally, our land retirement proposal is supported quantitatively by benefit-cost analysis.

The effect of fiscal policy on diet, obesity and chronic disease : a systematic review

Objective To assess the effect of food taxes and subsidies on diet, body weight and health through a systematic review of the literature.

Methods We searched the English-language published and grey literature for empirical and modelling studies on the effects of monetary subsidies or taxes levied on specific food products on consumption habits, body weight and chronic conditions. Empirical studies were dealing with an actual tax, while modelling studies predicted outcomes based on a hypothetical tax or subsidy.

Findings Twenty-four studies met the inclusion criteria: 13 were from the peer-reviewed literature and 11 were published on line. There were 8 empirical and 16 modelling studies. Nine studies assessed the impact of taxes on food consumption only, 5 on consumption and body weight, 4 on consumption and disease and 6 on body weight only. In general, taxes and subsidies influenced consumption in the desired direction, with larger taxes being associated with more significant changes in consumption, body weight and disease incidence. However, studies that focused on a single target food or nutrient may have overestimated the impact of taxes by failing to take into account shifts in consumption to other foods. The quality of the evidence was generally low. Almost all studies were conducted in high-income countries.

Conclusion Food taxes and subsidies have the potential to contribute to healthy consumption patterns at the population level. However, current evidence is generally of low quality and the empirical evaluation of existing taxes is a research priority, along with research into the effectiveness and differential impact of food taxes in developing countries.