Economic transition and commercial property cycles in China

Drawn from a recently completed study, this paper aims at a better understanding of commercial property cycles in the transitional economy of China. It examines the behaviour of the property submarket system in China and considers structural changes in the socio-economic system as a primary factor in addressing the research problem. The study suggests that the underlying social and economic structure has greatly determined market behaviour. It finds that radical changes can alter the formal structure (the designed structure) of the market system, including the property market structure, but cannot alter the informal structure (i.e. the emergent structure) at the similar rate. As the study shows, cycles in the commercial property market in the economic transition is largely a key resulting feature of the continuous structural change both at formal and informal levels in a way that is often imbalanced and not always consistently changing together. The same situation also applies to the transformation of inner-city built form, which is featured by a delayed change of physical building stock against the space demand trend that is underpinned by the socio-economic transition. Put simply, there is a supply lag, mainly in the form of changing land use and building stock replacement, against economic change (the business cycle). This affects the level of effective demand for office space and hence becomes a major force in shaping current office cycles.

Understanding property cycles in a residential market

Purpose – This paper aims to review property cycle theory and the relevance of the larger body of knowledge about cycles with reference to the housing market. It also aims to highlight the lack of research into property cycles in the residential sector on a suburb or smaller region basis, as well as the potential for increased knowledge about cycles to assist to avoid housing stress.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper conducts a literature review of previous cycle research and encourages the use of cycle theory. It discusses the established body of knowledge about business cycles and the office market sector, as well as investigating levels of housing affordability and how detailed knowledge about property cycles can assist to decrease housing affordability in residential areas, which will eventually experience a downturn.

Findings – It is argued that an increased level of certainty about cycle behaviour in particular suburbs will give households a higher level of confidence when considering whether and when to enter the market. Property cycle research has the potential to assist low-income homeowners to better understand the characteristics of cycles and associated risks in each residential.

Research limitations/implications – This is a conceptual paper and has conducted a review of cycle research and housing affordability in certain countries. Some areas or countries may be affected to varying degrees by property cycles and levels of housing affordability.

Practical implications – In extended periods of high volatility it is argued that a better understanding of housing cycles will allow more homeowners to avoid negative equity and the stress associated with repossessions. Property cycles are unavoidable although there is typically relatively little information available in the open market about the timing and amplitude of cycles in individual areas.

Originality/value – This paper is unique as it highlights the potential for property cycles to be used to avoid housing stress in the residential market. Traditionally cycle research is used to increase returns and avoid downturns in the office and/or business sectors.

Cycles of genocide, stories of denial : Atom Egoyan's Ararat

This article focuses on Atom Egoyan's Ararat and explores how, through a convoluted narrative structure, Egoyan grapples with denial of the Armenian Genocide and the consequences of those denials for present generations—both Turkish and Armenian—illuminated in the film as an extension of the genocide. Egoyan uses a film-within-a-film to move beyond a popular definition of genocide as mass killing alone and links the understanding of stories, truths, and perspectives in everyday life to the dehumanizing acts of genocide. Employing the philosopher Emmanuel Levinas’ ethical theory of the Other (the ethical) and philosophical understandings of ontology (dehumanization) to illuminate the genocide and its ongoing denial, this article contends that Egoyan's focus on the generations of genocide survivors points to the ethical responsibility to one another that underlies everyday lives and sits at the heart of what is absent in the acts of genocide.

Models for reform : the directors’ duty of care in a modern commercial world

The Australian responses to corporate collapses in the modern commercial world have been
implemented at both judicial and legislative levels over a period of decades. South Africa has lagged behind the reform process, only recently reviewing its company laws with a view to legislatively incorporating, inter alia, its directors’ duties. The consequence of such review of the duty of care is found in subsection 76(3)(c) of the Companies Act 71 of 2008. This article critically evaluates the existing South African common law and the new legislative directors’ duty of care in light of the equivalent duties in Australia and the United States. The analysis ultimately aims at determining whether the approach taken in any of these jurisdictions provides useful guidance in regard to reform options for the duty of care. While the Companies Act contains features that are preferable to the Australian Corporations Act 2001, the impact of the Companies Act on crucial features, such as the objectivity of the duty of care, is unclear and will have to await judicial review. It is concluded that while the South African measures at times echo Australian law in a positive manner, the Australian legislative regime is not without legitimate criticism as it can be unnecessarily complicated. Ultimately it is the United States and Australian common law duty of care that provides the best model for legislative reform.

A comparative analysis of directors' duty of care, skill and diligence in South Africa and in Australia

The South African and Australian law regarding directors' duty of care, ski ll and diligence were influenced considerably by English precedent of the late 1800s and early 19005. Originally both jurisdictions adopted a conservative approach towards directors' duty of care, skill and diligence. This resulted in very low standards of care, skill and diligence expected of directors. In Australia, the standards of care and diligence expected of directors changed drastically with the case of Daniels v Anderson, where objective standards were used to determine a breach of directors' duty of care and diligence, and when objective standards of care and diligence were introduced in Australian corporations legislation. In this article it is submitted that if the opportunity arose for a South African court to consider whether a director is in breach of his or her common law duty of care, skill and diligence, the form of fault that will be required will be negligence as judged against the standards of a reasonable person. This means that in actual fact objective standards of care and diligence are expected of directors in South Africa. Although section 76(3) of the South African Companies Act 71 of 2008 does not introduce purely objective standards of care, skill and diligence, the section is defended in this article. It is pointed out that encouraging emerging entrepreneurs to become directors of South African companies provides justification for keeping subjective elements as part of the test to determine whether a director was in breach of his or her statutory duty of care, skill and diligence.

Are business cycles stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend? empirical evidence from 79 developing countries

There is a large literature that tests the univariate time series properties of the real output series following the seminal work of Nelson and Plosser (1982). Whether or not real output is characterized by a unit root process has important implications. A unit root in real output, for instance, is inconsistent with the notion that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In this paper, we investigate the univariate time series properties of real output for 79 developing countries using the conventional augmented Dickey and Fuller (1979) unit root test, the Zivot and Andrews’ (1992) one structural break unit root test, and the Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) two structural breaks unit root test. Our main finding is that, for 40 countries, real output is stationary around a trend. This indicates that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend for only 51% of the developing countries in our sample.

The professionalisation of stress management : health and wellbeing as a professional duty of care?

Workplace stress associated with ongoing processes of organizational change is a major occupational and public health concern. It is also a costly economic issue—both public and private. In this paper a framework will be used that draws on Michel Foucault’s genealogies of the Self to suggest that the management of stress by professionals—in a workplace environment increasingly characterized by the practices of risk management—emerges as a key element of the choices and responsibilities that frame what it means to be professional. To be (a) professional means to be a person capable of making choices and accepting responsibilities that are framed by a duty of care to manage one’s health and well-being to maximize organizational performance and effectiveness. The article will examine the ways in which transformations in the organization and practice of teachers’ work have witnessed large numbers of teachers being seen, and seeing themselves, as stressed. These understandings of teacher stress have provoked a number of strategies designed to encourage individuals to take care of themselves—and to take care of themselves in ways that will make schools more effective. The authors are concerned with understanding the processes that are at work which make it possible to imagine that it is a professional duty of care to manage one’s life in such a way as to be both balanced and effective in contexts of uncertainty and risk.