Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Experimental foot-and-mouth disease virus infection in white tailed deer

White tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) were inoculated with foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) O UKG 11/2001 and monitored for the development of clinical signs, histopathological changes and levels of virus replication. All FMDV-infected deer developed clinical signs starting at 2 days post inoculation and characterized by an increase in body temperature, increased salivation and lesions in the mouth and on the feet. Virus spread to various tissues was determined by quantifying the amount of FMDV RNA using quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Virus or viral antigen was also detected in tissues using traditional isolation techniques, enzyme linked immunosorbent assay and immunohistochemistry. Deer-to-cattle transmission of the virus was observed in this experimental setting; however, inoculated deer were not found to become carriers of FMDV.

Effects of aging, exercise, and disease on force transfer in skeletal muscle

The loss of muscle strength and increased injury rate in aging skeletal muscle has previously been attributed to loss of muscle protein (cross-sectional area) and/or decreased neural activation. However, it is becoming clear that force transfer within and between fibers plays a significant role in this process as well. Force transfer involves a secondary matrix of proteins that align and transmit the force produced by the thick and thin filaments along muscle fibers and out to the extracellular matrix. These specialized networks of cytoskeletal proteins aid in passing force through the muscle and also serve to protect individual fibers from injury. This review discusses the cytoskeleton proteins that have been identified as playing a role in muscle force transmission, both longitudinally and laterally, and where possible highlights how disease, aging, and exercise influence the expression and function of these proteins.

Measurement and data transmission validity of a multi-biosensor system for real-time remote exercise monitoring among cardiac patients

Background: Remote telemonitoring holds great potential to augment management of patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) and atrial fibrillation (AF) by enabling regular physiological monitoring during physical activity. Remote physiological monitoring may improve home and community exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation (exCR) programs and could improve assessment of the impact and management of pharmacological interventions for heart rate control in individuals with AF.

Objective: Our aim was to evaluate the measurement validity and data transmission reliability of a remote telemonitoring system comprising a wireless multi-parameter physiological sensor, custom mobile app, and middleware platform, among individuals in sinus rhythm and AF.

Methods: Participants in sinus rhythm and with AF undertook simulated daily activities, low, moderate, and/or high intensity exercise. Remote monitoring system heart rate and respiratory rate were compared to reference measures (12-lead ECG and indirect calorimeter). Wireless data transmission loss was calculated between the sensor, mobile app, and remote Internet server.

Results: Median heart rate (-0.30 to 1.10 b∙min-1) and respiratory rate (-1.25 to 0.39 br∙min-1) measurement biases were small, yet statistically significant (all P≤.003) due to the large number of observations. Measurement reliability was generally excellent (rho=.87-.97, all P<.001; intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC]=.94-.98, all P<.001; coefficient of variation [CV]=2.24-7.94%), although respiratory rate measurement reliability was poor among AF participants (rho=.43, P<.001; ICC=.55, P<.001; CV=16.61%). Data loss was minimal (<5%) when all system components were active; however, instability of the network hosting the remote data capture server resulted in data loss at the remote Internet server during some trials.

Conclusions: System validity was sufficient for remote monitoring of heart and respiratory rates across a range of exercise intensities. Remote exercise monitoring has potential to augment current exCR and heart rate control management approaches by enabling the provision of individually tailored care to individuals outside traditional clinical environments.