Is optimistic bias influenced by control or delay?

Optimistic bias is a commonly observed but poorly explained phenomenon. Our aim was to determine whether optimistic bias varied according to the nature of the event. Two event characteristics were explored: control and delay. A sample of 100 participants aged 18–30 years was randomly selected from the local residential telephone directory. Respondents were interviewed over the telephone. The highly structured interview schedule assessed respondents' perceptions of their own risk, and the risk of an average person of their age and sex for experiencing four negative life events: developing skin cancer, being involved in a serious car accident as the driver, being involved in a serious car accident as a passenger and having to wear a hearing aid. It also assessed respondents' perceptions of control and delay for each event. Data analysis using a repeated-measures MANOVA showed that optimistic bias occurred for all four events. Optimistic bias was significantly greater for the two events high in control (skin cancer and accident as the driver) than for those low in control (accident as a passenger and hearing aid). Delay was not related to the magnitude of optimistic bias. These findings have implications for health promotion campaigns and self-protective behaviors.

Double jeopardy in Australia: the illusion of an absolute protection and the prosecution process as punishment

Outline of the nature and scope of the double jeopardy principle as it operates in the pleas in the bar and the court's discretion to prevent an abuse of the process - rationales advanced in favour of doctrine - some anomalies and implications from the claim that the double jeopardy principle is absolute - some suggestions for reform.

Tourism, trade and domestic welfare

Tourism has been regarded as a major source of economic growth and a source of foreign exchange. It has also been viewed as an activity that imposes costs on the host country. Such costs include increased pollution, congestion and despoliation of fragile environments, and intra-generational inequity aggravation. One aspect that has been ignored is the general equilibrium effects of tourism on other sectors in the economy. This paper presents a model that captures the interdependence between tourism and the rest of the economy, in particular agriculture and manufacturing. An important result obtained is that the tourist boom may 'immiserize' the residents.

The validity and reliability of an instrument to assess children's outdoor play in various locations

The aim of this study was to develop and test the reliability and validity of survey items that examine the frequency with which primary school-aged children play in particular outdoor locations. Parents reported the number of days their child spent playing in specified outdoor locations (i.e., yard at home, own street/court/footpath, and park/playground) out-of-school hours on weekdays and weekend days during a typical week. To test the reliability of these items, the survey was administered on two occasions, 2 weeks apart, to a sample of 53 parents of children attending primary schools located in metropolitan Melbourne. The validity study involved the completion of a log book by 46 parents of primary school children over a 1-week period. Two weeks later, the same sample of parents completed the survey items. The test–retest reliability of individual items was determined using intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC). The kappa statistic and percent agreement between responses were used to assess validity by comparing the information provided in the log book with that provided in the survey. Results from the two studies suggest that the survey was generally a reliable and valid instrument for assessing the frequency with which children play in particular locations especially at home or in the street. Evidence of the reliability and validity of items assessing where children play is novel and important considering the need to promote children's physical activity in a variety of settings.

An empirical study on the relationship between intellectual ability and an understanding of the legal process in male remand prisoners

Research conducted in Australia and around the world in the last decade has shown that people with significant intellectual impairments are over-represented in all areas of the criminal justice system. They are particularly over-represented in remand populations appearing before court. Previous research has suggested that as many as one-quarter of offenders facing sentencing in court have difficulty in understanding court procedures and it is suspected that a majority of these individuals suffer a significant intellectual impairment. The purpose of this study was to establish whether remandees with significant intellectual impairments (IQ < 70) have an accurate understanding of the court system. Seventy-four remand prisoners took part in the study. Remandees with an IQ of less than 70 demonstrated a significantly poorer understanding of the court system than those remandees with an IQ of 70 and above. The implications of these results are discussed in relation to the need for law reform and diversionary practices for this population of remandees.

Tomorrow’s car – for today’s people : can tilting three wheeled vehicles be a solution for the problems of today and the future?

The current automotive industry and todays car drivers are faced with every increasing challenges, not previously experienced. Climate Change, financial issues, rising fuel prices, increased traffic congestion and reduced parking space in cities are all leading to changes in consumer preferences and the requirements of modern passenger vehicles. However, despite the shift in the industry dynamics, the principal layout of a car hasn’t changed since its invention. The design of a ’conventional’ vehicle is still principally a matchbox with four wheels, one at each corner. The concept has served its purpose well for over 100 years, but such a layout is not suited to solving today’s problems. To address the range of problems faced by the industry, a number of alternative commuting vehicles have been developed. Yet the commercialization of these ‘alternative’ vehicles has yet to be successful. This is largely due failure of these vehicles to meet the changing demands of the industry and the limited understanding of consumer behaviour, motivation and attitudes. Deakin University’s Tomorrow’s Car concept tackles all of these problems. The vehicle is a novel three-wheeler cross over concept between a car and a motorbike that combines the best of both worlds. The vehicle combines the low cost, small size and ‘fun’ factor of a motorbike together with the safety, comfort and easy to drive features of a car produce a vehicle with a fuel efficiency better than either car or scooter. Intensive market research has been conducted for various major potential markets of alternative vehicles including India, China and Australia. The research analysed consumer attitudes in relation to narrow tilting vehicles, and in particular towards Deakin’s Tomorrow’s Car (TC). The study revealed that a relatively large percentage of consumers find such a concept very appealing. For the other consumers, the overall appearance and perception of safety and not the actual safety performance were found to be the most impeding factors of such vehicles. By addressing these issues and marketing the vehicle accordingly the successful commercialization of Tomorrow’s Car can be ensured.

The honeymoon killer : plea bargaining and intimate femicide : a response to Watson

In October 2003, US citizen Christina Thomas died while scuba diving on Queensland’s Great Barrier Reef. Following over five years of delays, her husband David Watson accepted a plea bargain to which he pleaded guilty to manslaughter on the basis of criminal negligence. Watson was initially sentenced to four and a half years imprisonment, suspended after 12 months, however this was later increased on appeal to suspension after 18 months. Using Watson as a framework for analysis, this article examines some of the limitations of an inefficient justice system, with a particular focus on the private nature of the plea bargaining process, and the potentially favourable representations and sentencing of men who kill a female intimate partner. The authors argue that the need to respond to court inefficiency and under-resourcing in the criminal courts creates pressures that can result in a desire for increased efficiency being prioritised above other justice concerns, and this allows for existing flaws within the operation of the criminal justice system to be exacerbated, and excused.

The children's court of South Australia

This chapter provides an overview of the history and development of the Youth Court in South Australia. Drawing on interviews conducted with judicial officers and Court stakeholders, we highlight some of the changes that have taken place since the Court’s inception, as well as how the Court currently understands its role and positioning within the broader justice and welfare systems.

Key discussion points of these interviews included the Youth Court’s guiding principles and how they impact on Court procedures and responses to young people in the system, as well as the challenges that limit, or create dif fi culties for, the effective operation of the Youth Court.

It is concluded that the Youth Court system attempts to balance both welfare and justice approaches to dealing with young people, but these approaches are sometimes hindered in practice by inadequate procedural, structural and resource- related factors. Limitations of the Court and its processes are often difficult to evaluate in isolation from the broader system in which the Court is positioned.

The implications of jail time discounting for court sentences

Specific and marginal general deterrence are being increasingly discredited as useful sentencing objectives. One reason is that offenders discount jail time, sometimes quite substantially. As a consequence, there is a significant difference between the court's sentence and the effective penalty. The latter is the offender's perceived duration of the time in jail. Discount rates, which perhaps can be thought of as a measure of acclimatisation to the prison experience, potentially weaken considerably the likelihood of successfully attaining the objective of specific deterrence. In addition, since jail time discount rates increase as the sentence length increases, punishment burden increases less than proportionately. This means that successfully achieving marginal deterrence is even more problematical. Using New South Wales data for three different offences, mean estimates of jail time discount rates are obtained, and then used to adjust downwards court sentences and estimate their effective equivalents. Effective sentence elasticities are then computed to gauge the impact of sentence doubling. Very low values are obtained. The critical implications for sentencing suggested by this study are, first, that absolute general deterrence and specific deterrence are realistic sentencing objectives. Marginal deterrence, however, does not seem to be attainable, given the ubiquity of positive time preference. Secondly, subject to the proportionality constraint, relatively shorter sentences are likely to be more punitive than longer ones, and therefore more effective as specific deterrents.

A systematic review of the management and outcome of toxic epidermal necrolysis treated in burns centres

Introduction
Toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) is a rare condition characterised by mucocutaneous exfoliation of greater than 30% total body surface area (%TBSA), increasingly being treated in burns centres. The rate of mortality varies significantly in the literature, with recent prospective studies in non-burns centres reporting percentage mortality of approximately 45%. We undertook a systematic review of published studies that included TEN patients treated specifically in burns centres to determine a cumulative mortality rate.

Methods
Electronic searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library (Issue 4, 2010) databases from 1966 onwards were used to identify English articles related to the treatment of TEN in burns centres.

Results
The systematic literature search identified 20 studies which specifically described patients with TEN grater than 30% %TBSA. Treatment regimens varied amongst studies, as did mortality. The overall percentage mortality of the combined populations was 30%. Risk factors commonly described as associated with mortality included age, %TBSA and delay to definitive treatment.

Conclusion
The review highlights the variation between principles of treatment and mortality amongst burns centres. It offers a standard that burns centre can use to internationally compare their mortality rates. The review supports the ongoing reporting of outcomes in TEN patients with epidermal detachment greater than 30%.

Mortality and use of the auxiliary score in extensive toxic epidermal necrolysis patients admitted to an adult burns referral centre

 Background: Toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) is a rare but fatal condition characterised by cutaneous exfoliation of the dermoepidermal layer and mucosal surfaces. Extensive TEN with epidermal detachment >30% of the total body surface area has been associated with a high mortality. Objective: This study aims to evaluate factors associated with mortality in extensive TEN. In the absence of data to qualify scoring systems such as SCORTEN, this study also aims to evaluate the use of the auxiliary score as a tool for calculating expected mortality. Methods: A retrospective chart review of all patients presenting to our burns service with extensive TEN was undertaken. Application and evaluation of the auxiliary score was also undertaken for this patient population. Results: In extensive TEN, age and delay in admission to a burns centre were factors associated with mortality. Applying the auxiliary score to our patient population, there were no significant differences between expected mortality and observed mortality. Conclusion: Mortality was associated with age and delay in definitive treatment in extensive TEN. Whilst SCORTEN is the gold standard prognostic tool for patients with TEN, in the absence of SCORTEN values, the auxiliary score provides an alternative scoring system to evaluate expected mortality.

Reduced order functional observers with application to partial state estimation of linear systems with input delay

Reduced order multi-functional observer design for multi-input multi-utput (MIMO) linear time-invariant (LTI) systems with constant delayed inputs is studied. This research is useful in the input estimation of LTI systems with actuator delay, as well as system monitoring and fault detection of these systems. Two approaches for designing an asymptotically stable functional observer for the system are proposed: delay-dependent and delay-free. The delay-dependent observer is infinite-dimensional, while the delay-free structure is finite-dimensional. Moreover, since the delay-free observer does not require any information on the time delay, it is more practical in real applications. However, the delay-dependent observer contains less restrictive assumptions and covers more variety of systems. The proposed observer design schemes are novel, simple to implement, and have improved numerical features compared to some of the other available approaches to design (unknown-input) functional observers. In addition, the proposed observers usually possess lower order than ordinary Luenberger observers, and the design schemes do not need the observability or detectability requirements of the system. The necessary and sufficient conditions of the existence of an asymptoticobserver in each scenario are explored. The extensions of the proposed observers to systems with multiple delayed-inputs are also discussed. Several numerical examples and simulation results are employed to support our theories.

Towards power consumption-delay tradeoff by workload allocation in cloud-fog computing

Fog computing, characterized by extending cloud computing to the edge of the network, has recently received considerable attention. The fog is not a substitute but a powerful complement to the cloud. It is worthy of studying the interplay and cooperation between the edge (fog) and the core (cloud). To address this issue, we study the tradeoff between power consumption and delay in a cloud-fog computing system. Specifically, we first mathematically formulate the workload allocation problem. After that, we develop an approximate solution to decompose the primal problem into three subproblems of corresponding subsystems, which can be independently solved. Finally, based on extensive simulations and numerical results, we show that by sacrificing modest computation resources to save communication bandwidth and reduce transmission latency, fog computing can significantly improve the performance of cloud computing.

Optimising technical skills and physical loading in small-sided basketball games

Differences in physiological, physical, and technical demands of small-sided basketball games related to the number of players, court size, and work-to-rest ratios are not well characterised. A controlled trial was conducted to compare the influence of number of players (2v2/4v4), court size (half/full court) and work-to-rest ratios (4x2.5 min/2x5 min) on the demands of small-sided games. Sixteen elite male and female junior players (aged 15-19 years) completed eight variations of a small-sided game in randomised order over a six-week period. Heart rate responses and rating of perceived exertion (RPE) were measured to assess the physiological load. Movement patterns and technical elements were assessed by video analysis. There were ∼60% more technical elements in 2v2 and ∼20% more in half court games. Heart rate (86 ± 4% & 83 ± 5% of maximum; mean ± SD) and RPE (8 ± 2 & 6 ± 2; scale 1-10) were moderately higher in 2v2 than 4v4 small-sided games, respectively. The 2v2 format elicited substantially more sprints (36 ±12%; mean ±90% confidence limits) and high intensity shuffling (75 ±17%) than 4v4. Full court games required substantially more jogging (9 ±6%) compared to half court games. Fewer players in small-sided basketball games substantially increases the technical, physiological and physical demands.

What sort of mandatory penalties should we have?

The argument in favour of a widespread fixed penalty regime - adopting a primary rationale for punishment would facilitate a more coherent and exacting approach to sentencing - the central objections against fixed penalties are that they are too severe and lead to unfairness because they are unable to incorporate all the relevant sentencing variables - by adopting a utilitarian ethic as the primary rationale for punishment, these problems can be circumvented - no utilitarian justification for disproportionate punishment, and penalties should not exceed the seriousness of the offence - no foundation for most sentencing considerations - by disregarding irrelevant considerations, the remaining can be incorporated into a fixed penalty system - the way would then be open for a coherent sentencing law system in which criminal justice is governed by pre-determined rules and principles as opposed to the intuition of sentencers.