Stock market efficiency withstands another challenge : solving the “sell in May/buy after Halloween” puzzle

Examining the years 1970 to 1998, Bouman and Jacobsen (2002) document unusually high monthly returns during the November-April periods for both United States (U.S.) and foreign stock markets and label this phenomenon the Halloween effect. Their research suggests that the Halloween effect represents an exploitable anomaly and has negative implications for claims of stock market efficiency.

Re-examining Bouman and Jacobsen’s empirical results for the U.S. reveals that their results are driven by two outliers, the “Crash” of October 1987 and the collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in August 1998. After inserting a dummy variable to account for the impact of the two identified outliers, the Halloween effect becomes statistically insignificant. This anomaly is not economically exploitable for U.S. equity markets. We extend the research to the S&P 500 futures contract and find no evidence of an exploitable Halloween effect over the period April 1982-April 2003.

Is South Korea’s stock market efficient?

This letter applies the Zivot and Andrews (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, 251-70, 1992) one break and the Lumsdaine and Papell (Review of Economic and Statistics, 79, 212-8, 1997) two break unit root tests to examine the random walk hypothesis for stock prices in South Korea. The results provide strong evidence that stock prices in South Korea are characterized by a unit root, which is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.

Volatility spillover between New Zealand stock market returns and exchange rate changes before and after the 1997 Asian financial crisis

Researchers in the last decade have been investigating the interdependence of stock returns and exchange rate changes within the same economy. Kanas (2000) and Yang and Doong (2004) find that for the G-7 countries, in general, the volatility of the stock market spills over to the exchange rate market but that volatility spillovers from the exchange rate market to the stock market are insignificant. Chen, Naylor, and Lu (2004) find that NZ individual firm returns are significantly exposed to exchange rate changes. This study complements their work by investigating the volatility spillover between the stock market and the foreign exchange market within the NZ economy.

The volume and volatility relation in the Australian stock market

The thesis studies the volume-volatility relation in the Australian Securities Market. It is concluded that the number of trades is the most important variable driving realized volatility. The average trade size is significant but its explanatory power is only trivial. Order imbalance does not drive volatility in the Australian market.

A study of voluntary disclosure of listed Chinese firms - a stakeholder perspective

Purpose – The aim of this paper is to investigate stakeholder power changes and their impact on firms' disclosure decisions in the Chinese stock market. Using legitimacy theory and stakeholder theory, the paper identifies newly emerged stakeholder groups for listed Chinese firms during three distinguished periods of the development of the Chinese stock market.

Design/methodology/approach – Panel data analysis was undertaken over a period from 1995-2006 with an aim to examine the influence of stakeholder power changes on voluntary disclosures made by 297 listed firms in their 12 years of annual reports. A voluntary disclosure checklist has been used for hand-collecting data from annual reports.

Findings – The finding shows that different stakeholder groups exert different degrees of influence on firms' decision-making in respect of information disclosure during different stages of the development of the Chinese stock market.

Research limitations/implications – The impact of a stakeholder power changes on corporate disclosure has not been well addressed and how listed Chinese firms respond to these changes is still a significant gap in the Chinese corporate disclosure literature. In this study, the paper uses proxies to represent each stakeholder group, discuss power changes of each group and predict the impact of power changes on firms' voluntary disclosure.

Originality/value – The paper identifies the new content of the “social contract” between listed firms and Chinese society and identifies various stakeholder groups of listed Chinese firms in the context of a new “social contract”. The paper predicts that voluntary corporate disclosure is the result of stakeholder pressures and firms use voluntary disclosure as one of their strategies to manage the firm-stakeholder relationship.

Has political instability contributed to price clustering on Fiji's stock market?

The goal of this article is to examine evidence of stock price clustering on the South Pacific Stock Exchange, located in Fiji, and explore its determinants. We find that stock prices cluster at the decimal of 0 and 5, with almost half of prices settling on these two decimals. Upon investigating the determinants of price clustering on the South Pacific Stock Exchange we find that price level and volume of trade have a statistically significant positive effect on price clustering. We also propose and test a ‘panic trading’ hypothesis which states political instability induces price clustering. We find evidence that political instability in Fiji induces price clustering behaviour.

Non-nested tests of a GDP-augmented Fama–French model versus a conditional Fama–French model in the Australian stock market

We extend Vassalou (2003) by conditioning the Fama–French model with the same macroeconomic variables used to construct a GDP factor. The motivation for doing so is to ascertain whether the ability of the GDP-augmented model to explain equity returns is actually due to news about future GDP growth or whether it is due to the macroeconomic conditioning variables used to construct the GDP factor. We compare the performance of a GDP-enhanced Fama–French model with the conditional Fama–French model using non-nested testing techniques. We find that the GDP-augmented model considerably underperforms the conditional version of the model.

Institutional Ownership, Audit Committee and Risk Disclosure – Evidence from Australian Stock Market

This study investigates the influence of institutional ownership and audit committees corporate risk disclosures. Focusing on analysing firms’ risk disclosures make in their 2009 annual reports, our sample constitutes a sample of 66 Australian listed firms. We divide institutional shareholders into dedicated-type institutional block shareholders and transient-type institutional block shareholders. We find that while there is no significant relationship between dedicated-type institutional block shareholders and risk disclosure, there is a positive relationship between transient-type institutional block shareholders and risk disclosures. Our result is consistent with a principal that wields limited monitoring resources while achieving high resource dependency over management. We also find a significant and positive relationship between audit committee independence and risk disclosures, showing the positive role played by audit committee in improving the information transparency and reducing information asymmetry in capital market.