The probability model of peer-to-peer botnet propagation

Active Peer-to-Peer worms are great threat to the network security since they can propagate in automated ways and flood the Internet within a very short duration. Modeling a propagation process can help us to devise effective strategies against a worm's spread. This paper presents a study on modeling a worm's propagation probability in a P2P overlay network and proposes an optimized patch strategy for defenders. Firstly, we present a probability matrix model to construct the propagation of P2P worms. Our model involves three indispensible aspects for propagation: infected state, vulnerability distribution and patch strategy. Based on a fully connected graph, our comprehensive model is highly suited for real world cases like Code Red II. Finally, by inspecting the propagation procedure, we propose four basic tactics for defense of P2P botnets. The rationale is exposed by our simulated experiments and the results show these tactics are of effective and have considerable worth in being applied in real-world networks.

Computing of high breakdown regression estimators without sorting on graphics processing units

We present an approach to computing high-breakdown regression estimators in parallel on graphics processing units (GPU).We show that sorting the residuals is not necessary, and it can be substituted by calculating the median. We present and compare various methods to calculate the median and order statistics on GPUs. We introduce an alternative method based on the optimization of a convex function, and showits numerical superiority when calculating the order statistics of very large arrays on GPUs.

Contests with the probability of a draw : a stochastic foundation

This article proposes a stochastic foundation for the contest success function (CSF for short) with a richer structure on the set of possible outcomes of the contest. Specifically, the analysis allows for the possibility of a draw, so that no contestant can claim a victory over all other players. Under plausible conditions, this article not only discovers new functional forms of CSFs, but also shows the newly derived CSFs have very different properties in equilibrium to those of conventional CSFs. For example, in contrast to the CSFs discussed in the contest literature, which always generate a unique pure strategy Nash equilibrium, the newly discovered CSFs admit the possibility of multiple equilibria.

Probability distributions of number of children and maternal age at various order births using age-specific fertility rates by birth order

In this study, a simple analytical framework to find the probability distributions of number of children and maternal age at various order births by making use of data on age-specific fertility rates by birth order was proposed. The proposed framework is applicable to both the period and cohort fertility schedules. The most appealing point of the proposed framework is that it does not require stringent assumptions. The proposed framework has been applied to the cohort birth order-specific fertility schedules of India and its different regions and period birth order-specific fertility schedules, including the United States of America, Russia, and the Netherlands, to demonstrate its usefulness.

Is there an interaction between socioeconomic status and FRAX 10-year fracture probability determined with and without bone density measures? Data from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study of female cohort.

FRAX(©) evaluates 10-year fracture probabilities and can be calculated with and without bone mineral density (BMD). Low socioeconomic status (SES) may affect BMD, and is associated with increased fracture risk. Clinical risk factors differ by SES; however, it is unknown whether aninteraction exists between SES and FRAX determined with and without the BMD. From the Geelong Osteoporosis Study, we drew 819 females aged ≥50 years. Clinical data were collected during 1993-1997. SES was determined by cross-referencing residential addresses with Australian Bureau of Statistics census data and categorized in quintiles. BMD was measured by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry at the same time as other clinical data were collected. Ten-year fracture probabilities were calculated using FRAX (Australia). Using multivariable regression analyses, we examined whether interactions existed between SES and 10-year probability for hip and any major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) defined by use of FRAX with and without BMD. We observed a trend for a SES * FRAX(no-BMD) interaction term for 10-year hip fracture probability (p = 0.09); however, not for MOF (p = 0.42). In women without prior fracture (n = 518), we observed a significant SES * FRAX(no-BMD) interaction term for hip fracture (p = 0.03) and MOF (p = 0.04). SES does not appear to have an interaction with 10-year fracture probabilities determined by FRAX with and without BMD in women with previous fracture; however, it does appear to exist for those without previous fracture.

Breakdown in central motor control can be attenuated by motor practice and neuro-modulation of the primary motor cortex

The performance of a repetitive index finger flexion–extension task at maximal voluntary rate (MVR) begins to decline just a few seconds into the task and we have previously postulated that this breakdown has a central origin. To test this hypothesis, we have combined two objectives; to determine whether motor practice can lessen the performance deterioration in an MVR task, and whether further gains can be achieved with a transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) protocol that increases corticomotor excitability (CME). Eleven right-handed subjects participated in a randomized crossover study design that consisted of a 15-min interventional TMS at I-wave periodicity (ITMS) and single-pulsed Sham intervention prior to six 10-s practice sets of a repetitive finger flexion–extension task at MVR. Motor-evoked potentials (MEPs) were recorded from the first dorsal interosseous muscle. The starting movement rate, and the percentage decline in rate by the end of the MVR were quantitated. Training of the MVR task improved the sustainability of the task by reducing the decline in movement rate. CME increased steadily after each training bout, and this increase was maintained up to 20 min after the last bout. ITMS further increased CME, and was associated with an increase in both the starting rate of the MVR task and its sustainability, when compared to Sham. The results implicate central motor processes in the performance and sustainability of the MVR task, and indicate that MVR kinematics can improve with short-term training and with non-invasive neuro-modulation.

High breakdown bundle adjustment

Identifying the parameters of a model such that it best fits an observed set of data points is fundamental to the majority of problems in computer vision. This task is particularly demanding when portions of the data has been corrupted by gross outliers, measurements that are not explained by the assumed distributions. In this paper we present a novel method that uses the Least Quantile of Squares (LQS) estimator, a well known but computationally demanding high-breakdown estimator with several appealing theoretical properties. The proposed method is a meta-algorithm, based on the well established principles of proximal splitting, that allows for the use of LQS estimators while still retaining computational efficiency. Implementing the method is straight-forward as the majority of the resulting sub-problems can be solved using existing standard bundle-adjustment packages. Preliminary experiments on synthetic and real image data demonstrate the impressive practical performance of our method as compared to existing robust estimators used in computer vision.

Default probability for the Jordanian companies: A test of cash flow theory

Abstract
This paper aims to investigate the effect of cash flow and free cash flow on corporate failure in the emerging market in particular Jordan using two samples; matched sample and a cross sectional time-series (panel data) sample representative of 167 Jordanian companies in 1989-2003. LOGIT models are used to outline the relationship between firms’ financial health and the probability of default. Our results show that there is firm’s free cash flow increases corporate failure. The result also shows that the firm’s cash flow decreases corporate failure. Firms’ capital structures are fund a mental in predicting default. Capital structure is seen as the main factor affecting the probability of default as it affects a firm’s ability to access external sources of funds. Jordanian firms depend on short-term debt for both short and long term financing.