Tourism, taxes and immiserization: A trade theoretic analysis

Many countries promote tourism as a device for earning foreign exchange and promoting domestic welfare and growth. In all these countries the non-traded goods (internationally not traded) are consumed by both domestic residents and tourists. It is well known that the relative price of non-traded goods and services is determined in the local market – hence the tourist demand results in monopoly power in trade for the host country. We use a very simple two-country model to demonstrate the specific nature of the offer curve and the trade equilibrium and the difficulties of taxation.

Forecasting inflation, industrial output and exchange rates : a template study for India

This paper reports results from a forecasting study for inflation, industrial output and exchange rates for India. We cannot reject the null hypothesis for linearity for all series used except for the growth rate of the foreign exchange series and our analysis is based on linear models, ARIMA and bivariate transfer functions and restricted VAR. Forecasting performance is evaluated using the models’ root mean-squared error differences and Theil’s inequality coefficients from recursive origin static, fixed origin dynamic and rolling origin dynamic forecasts. For models based on weekly data, based on RMSEs, we find that the bivariate models improve upon the forecasts of the ARIMA model while for models based on monthly data the ARIMA model has almost always better performance. In choosing between the two bivariate models on the basis of RMSEs, our overall results tend to support the use of a restricted VAR, as this model had the best forecasting performance more frequently than the transfer function model.

An intelligent forex monitoring system

The need for intelligent monitoring systems has become a necessity to keep track of the complex forex market. The vast currency market is a foreign concept to the average individual. However, once it is broken down into simple terms, the average individual can begin to understand the foreign exchange market and use it as a financial instrument for future investing. We attempt to compare the performance of a Takagi-Sugeno, type neuro-fuzzy system and a feedforward neural network trained using the scaled conjugate gradient algorithm to predict the average monthly forex rates. We considered the exchange values of Australian dollar with respect to US dollar, Singapore dollar, New Zealand dollar, Japanese yen and United Kingdom pounds. The connectionist models were trained using 70% of the data and remaining was used for testing and validation purposes. It is observed that the proposed connectionist models were able to predict the average forex rates one month ahead accurately. Experiment results also reveal that the neuro-fuzzy technique performed better than the neural network

The relationship between the real exchange rate and balance of payments: empirical evidence for China from cointegration and causality testing

This article examines the relationship between the renminbi real exchange rate and China's foreign exchange reserves using cointegration and Granger causality testing. The main findings are that in the long run foreign exchange reserves Granger cause the real exchange rate. Meanwhile, in the short run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from foreign exchange reserves to the real exchange rate.

An examination of Australian gold mining firms' exposure over the collapse of gold price in the late 1990s

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the exposures of Australian gold mining firms in the highly volatile period from 1995 to 2000. This period has been characterized by significant changes in gold price due to bulk sale of gold by collective central banks. Specifically, the paper aims to investigate several firm-specific factors that are hypothesized to carry substantial influence on gold beta.

Design/methodology/approach – To estimate gold beta, we use the following multifactor model: R_g,_t = a+ß_gGPR_t + ß_xFXR_t + ß_mR_m,_t + _Et , where R_g,_t is the return on the gold stock Index at time t, GPR_t is the gold price return denominated in US dollar at time t, FXR_t is the foreign exchange return of Australian dollar in terms of US dollar at time t, R_m,t is the market return at time t, and _Et is the random error term at time t.

Findings – The paper finds that the values of gold beta are consistently greater than one, implying the sensitive nature of firms’ stock returns to gold price changes. This also suggests that investors holding gold mining stock would receive higher percentage increases in stock returns from a percentage increase in gold price returns, as opposed to investors holding gold bullion. Furthermore, these values have changed substantially over time with significant changes in gold price volatility. The most important and consistent relationship that we find is the impact of firms’ hedging behavior on their respective gold betas. This is consistent with Tufano’s study. It implies that firms, which hedge a greater proportion of their gold reserves, are less sensitive to movements in gold prices. The finding therefore supports the risk management theory that hedging increases shareholder’s wealth. However, cash operating costs, cash reserves and the level of gold production seem to influence very little on the firms’ exposure to gold price changes.

Originality/value – This study is of interest and important to the stock mining companies and investors because the extent of the effect of gold price movements on the stock returns of gold mining companies has significant impacts on returns for both firms and investors especially in their risk management and investment decisions, respectively.

Credit cycle dependent spread determinants in emerging sovereign debt markets

We address credit cycle dependent sovereign credit risk determinants. In our model, the spread determinants' magnitude is conditional on an unobservable endogenous sovereign credit cycle as represented by the underlying state of a Markov regime switching process. Our explanatory variables are motivated in the tradition of structural credit risk models and include changes in asset prices, interest rates, implied market volatility, gold price changes and foreign exchange rates. We examine daily frequency variations of U.S. dollar denominated Eurobond credit spreads of four major Latin American sovereign bond issuers (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela) with liquid bond markets during March 2000 to June 2011. We find that spread determinants are statistically significant and consistent with theory, while their magnitude remarkably varies with the state of the credit cycle. Crisis states are characterized by high spread change uncertainty and high sensitivities with respect to the spread change determinants. We further document that not only changes of local currencies, but also changes of the Euro with respect to the U.S. dollar are significant spread drivers and argue that this is consistent with the sovereigns' ability to pay.

Interday and intraday volatility: additional evidence from the Shanghai Stock Exchange

After examining both the interday and intraday return volatility of the Shanghai Composite Stock Index, it was found that the open-to-open return variance is consistently greater than the close-to-close variance. Examining the volatility of interday returns and variance ratio tests with five-minute intervals reveals an L-shaped pattern, or more precisely, two L-shaped patterns, starting with a small hump during both the morning and the afternoon sessions, with the morning session having a much higher interday volatility than the afternoon session. This L -shaped interday volatility is supported by the similarly shaped intraday volatility pattern. This result suggests that the high volatility of intraday returns for the market open is not entirely due to the trading mechanisms (call auction in the market opening) but also due to both the accumulated overnight information and the trading halt effect. The five-minute breaks after the auction and blind auction procedures are the two major driving forces which exaggerate the high intraday volatility observed at the market open.

Migration, unemployment and trade

Migration, Unemployment and Trade focuses on the issues of migration, welfare and unemployment in a trade and development framework. Several chapters of the book analyze the implications of internal labor mobility in a model designed to highlight its implications for regional welfare, urban unemployment, rural-urban dichotomy and structural adjustment. An important innovation in this work is the disaggregation of the economy and the use of separate utility functions to highlight non-homogeneity of preferences. The book also deals with international mobility of factors in different frameworks. In particular it concentrates on the highly emotive issue of legal and illegal migration. Thus this work incorporates interesting and important features of labor economics and factor mobility into trade and distortion theory.

Corporate governance failure and its impact on National Australia Bank's performance

The National Australia Bank (NAB) is the largest financial services institution listed on the Australian stock exchange and is within the 30 most profitable financial services organisation in the world. In January 2004, the bank disclosed to the public that it had identified losses relating to unauthorised trading in foreign currency options amounting to AUD360 million. This foreign exchange debacle was classified as operational risk, the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed processes, people, or systems and reiterated the importance of corporate governance for banks. Concurrent issues of National Australia Bank’s AUD4.1 billion loss on US HomeSide loans in 2001, the degree of strength of their risk management practices and lack of auditor independence, were raised by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in 2004, reinforcing the view that corporate governance had not been given the priority it deserved over a number of years. This paper will assess and critically analyse the impact of corporate governance failure by management and Board of Directors on NAB’s performance over the years 2001-2005.

Building agent-based hybrid intelligent systems

Many complex problems including financial investment planning, foreign exchange trading, knowledge discovery from large/multiple databases require hybrid intelligent systems that integrate many intelligent techniques including expert systems, fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms. However, hybrid intelligent systems are difficult to develop because they have a large number of parts or components that have many interactions. On the other hand, agents offer a new and often more appropriate route to the development of complex systems, especially in open and dynamic environments. In this paper, it is argued that agent technology is well snited for constructing hybrid intelligent systems (especially loosely coupled hybrid intelligent systems) through a successful case study. A great number of heterogeneous computing techniques/packages are easily integlated into the experimental system under a unifying agent framework, which implies that agent technology can greatly facilitate the construction of hybrid intelligent systems.

Accountability and board functionality: National Australia Bank's experience

The National Australia Bank’s (NAB) experience of corporate governance has been contrary to current standards of good corporate governance, accountability and risk management. Over the last few years NAB’s misadventures have brought it under intensive media scrutiny with the HomeSide losses and the investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission in the USA for breaches of auditor independence. More recently the unauthorised trading by its foreign exchange dealers violated NABs risk management practices and the subsequent board crisis resulted in significant downgrading of the share price on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). This paper briefly reviews the international history of corporate accountability and its growth in Australia. The increasing shareholder and legislative pressure to improve sustainability, accountability and board functionality have driven these issues to the forefront of Governing Boards’ agendas worldwide. The board remains ultimately responsible for all actions of the company and this is highlighted by APRA’s recent release of the new governance standard APG510 for implementation by October 2006. The impact of NAB’s board dysfunction on its overall performance is compared with the other major banks in Australia. Cost efficiency ratios, share price and total shareholder return are used as measures of performance and profitability. It is clear, from NAB’s recent experience, as the worst performer of all the majors, with a 19.7% fall in net profit and a cost to income ratio of 57.4% in 2004, that the NAB board needs to improve its performance and accountability to meet a sustainable increase in profitability and higher return for investors.

Tourism, trade and domestic welfare

Tourism has been regarded as a major source of economic growth and a source of foreign exchange. It has also been viewed as an activity that imposes costs on the host country. Such costs include increased pollution, congestion and despoliation of fragile environments, and intra-generational inequity aggravation. One aspect that has been ignored is the general equilibrium effects of tourism on other sectors in the economy. This paper presents a model that captures the interdependence between tourism and the rest of the economy, in particular agriculture and manufacturing. An important result obtained is that the tourist boom may 'immiserize' the residents.

Building agent-based hybrid intelligent systems : a case study

Many complex problems (e.g., financial investment planning, foreign exchange trading, data mining from large/multiple databases) require hybrid intelligent systems that integrate many intelligent techniques (e.g., fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms). However, hybrid intelligent systems are difficult to develop because they have a large number of parts or components that have many interactions. On the other hand, agents offer a new and often more appropriate route to the development of complex systems, especially in open and dynamic environments. Thus, this paper discusses the development of an agent-based hybrid intelligent system for financial investment planning, in which a great number of heterogeneous computing techniques/packages are easily integrated into a unifying agent framework. This shows that agent technology can indeed facilitate the development of hybrid intelligent systems.