The end of economic growth? A contracting threshold hypothesis

This paper argues that GDP growth in both developed and developing countries has associated costs that can outweigh the benefits and thus reduce sustainable well-being. This conclusion is based upon the findings of empirical applications of the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) to a range of countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The studies conducted on seven Asia-Pacific countries indicate that, in the case of five of the seven nations, more recent GDP growth has reduced the sustainable well-being experienced by the average citizen residing within them. Moreover, the threshold point at which the costs of GDP growth outweigh the benefits appears to be contracting (i.e., occurring at a much lower per capita level of GDP). This paper therefore introduces a new contracting threshold hypothesis: as the economies of the Asia-Pacific region and the world collectively expand in a globalised economic environment, there is a contraction over time in the threshold level of per capita GDP. As a consequence, the threshold point confronting growth late-comers (i.e., developing countries) occurs at a much lower level of sustainable welfare than what wealthy nations currently enjoy. The consequences of this for developing countries are clearly significant and require a new approach to economic development.

Dopamine dysregulation syndrome : implications for a dopamine hypothesis of bipolar disorder

Objective: Rational therapeutic development in bipolar is hampered by a lack of pathophysiological model. However, there is a wealth of converging data on the role of dopamine in bipolar disorder. This paper therefore examines the possibility of a dopamine hypothesis for bipolar disorder.

Method: A literature search was conducted using standard search engines Embase, PyschLIT, PubMed and MEDLINE. In addition, papers and book chapters known to the authors were retrieved and examined for further relevant articles.

Results: Collectively, in excess of 100 articles were reviewed from which approximately 75% were relevant to the focus of this paper.

Conclusion: Pharmacological models suggest a role of increased dopaminergic drive in mania and the converse in depression. In Parkinson’s disease, administration of high-dose dopamine precursors can produce a ‘maniform’ picture, which switches into a depressive analogue on withdrawal. It is possible that in bipolar disorder there is a cyclical process, where increased dopaminergic transmission in mania leads to a secondary down regulation of dopaminergic receptor sensitivity over time. This may lead to a period of decreased dopaminergic transmission, corresponding with the depressive phase, and the repetition of the cycle. This model, if verified, may have implications for rational drug development.

The developmental stress hypothesis: A special case of the evolution of condition-dependent sexual traits

The idea that sexually selected traits might be condition dependent is far from novel (Zahavi 1975); however, the developmental stress hypothesis was proposed as a special case because of a highly plausible mechanism: the development of the neural circuits controlling song output coincides with a period of time during which developing birds are likely to be susceptible to stress. The elegant aspect of the hypothesis is that the mechanism is defined and effects can be readily tested (Nowicki et al. 1998; Buchanan et al. 2003). Compared with more general hypotheses about the evolution of condition-dependent sexual traits (Buchanan 2000), the second particularly interesting aspect of the developmental stress hypothesis is that, in some species, individuals may suffer historical markers of stress. This is because in species with a fixed period for neural growth and song learning, there is no possibility for compensation in later life for stress experienced during early development. Females using such a marker of stress may benefit by obtaining a partner whose other cognitive functions have not been impaired by stress.

Testing the expectations hypothesis for interest rate term structure : some Australian evidence

Many test results are found inconsistent with the expectations hypothesis of the term structure. The aim of this paper is to re-examine the expectations hypothesis of the term structure using the Australian interest rate data from 1969(7) to 1995(7). We start with the cointegration test on R_t, r_t, and S_t followed by the Granger causality test from S_t to ∇ r_t. Finally we carry out the VAR model of cross-equation restrictions test. Our findings show that there is no conclusive rejection of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure.

Hypothesis verification using parametric models and active vision strategies

This paper proposes a methodology for determining the shape and ultimately the functionality of objects from intensity images; 2D analytic functions are used to track 3D features during known camera motions. Three analytic functions are proposed that describe the relationship between pairs of points that are either stationary or moving depending on whether the points are on occluding boundaries or otherwise. Many of the problems of correspondence are reduced by using foveation, known camera motion, and active vision methods. The three analytic functions are shown to enable hypothesis refinement of the functionality of a number of 3D objects without full 3D information about the shape.

Emerging hypothesis verification using function-based geometric models and active vision strategies

This paper describes an investigation into the use of parametric 2D models describing the movement of edges for the determination of possible 3D shape and hence function of an object. An assumption of this research is that the camera can foveate and track particular features. It is argued that simple 2D analytic descriptions of the movement of edges can infer 3D shape while the camera is moved. This uses an advantage of foveation i.e. the problem becomes object centred. The problem of correspondence for numerous edge points is overcome by the use of a tree based representation for the competing hypotheses. Numerous hypothesis are maintained simultaneously and it does not rely on a single kinematic model which assumes constant velocity or acceleration. The numerous advantages of this strategy are described.

A nonlinear approach to testing the unit root null hypothesis : an application to international health expenditures

In this article, we examine the unit root null hypothesis for per capita total Health Expenditures (HEs), per capita private HEs and per capita public HEs for 29 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. The novelty of our work is that we use a new nonlinear unit root test that allows for one structural break in the data series. We find that for around 45% of the countries, we are able to reject the unit root hypothesis for each of the three HE series. Moreover, using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that our proposed unit root model has better size and power properties than the widely used Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) type tests.

Hypothesis generation and testing in event profiling for digital forensic investigations

The need for an automated approach to forensic digital investigation has been recognized for some years, and several authors have developed frameworks in this direction. The aim of this paper is to assist the forensic investigator with the generation and testing of hypotheses in the analysis phase. In doing so, the authors present a new architecture which facilitates the move to automation of the investigative process; this new architecture draws together several important components of the literature on question and answer methodologies including the concept of ‘pivot’ word and sentence ranking. Their architecture is supported by a detailed case study demonstrating its practicality.

An epidemiological analysis of the 'autism as mercury poisoning' hypothesis

Where direct experimental research into a causal hypothesis of a disease is impossible due to ethical and practical considerations, epidemiological inference is the accepted route to establishing cause. Therefore, to examine the autism as mercury poisoning hypothesis, this paper reviews the existing scientific literature within the context of established epidemiological criteria and finds that the evidence for a causal relationship is compelling. Exposure to mercury (via vaccines and maternal dental amalgam) in utero and during infant years is confirmed; mercury poisoning is known to cause symptoms consistent with autism; animal modeling supports the link and, critically, mercury levels are higher in both the urine and blood of autistic children than in non-autistic peers. Analogous to epidemiological evidence of the smoking–lung cancer relationship, a mercury–autism relationship is confirmed. The precautionary principle demands that health professionals not take an action if there is suspicion that the action may cause severe or lifelong health effects: it does not require certainty. Therefore, given the severity, devastating lifelong impact and extremely high prevalence of autism, it would be negligent to continue to expose pregnant and nursing mothers and infant children to any amount of avoidable mercury.

A modified LLC panel unit root test of the PPP hypothesis

In a recent study, Westerlund (Empir Econ 37:517–531, 2009) shows that the performance of the popular LLC (Levin et al., J Econ 108:1–24, 2002) panel unit root test depends critically on the choice of lag truncation used when correcting for serial correlation, and that it is only when this parameter is set as a function of time that the power raises above size. The purpose of the current paper is to propose a modified test that does not suffer from this drawback. The new test is not only simpler to compute but also superior in terms of small-sample performance, which is illustrated using an example purchasing power parity for less developed countries.

Re-examining the "twin deficits" hypothesis: evidence from Australia

This paper re-examines the relationship between fiscal imbalances and net foreign borrowing. A general analytical approach is first developed which suggests that, other things equal, a rise (fall) in any advanced economy’s fiscal deficit should be fully matched by a rise (fall) in its net foreign borrowing, in accordance with the so-called twin deficits hypothesis. In the case of Australia, one of the world’s largest foreign borrower economies for its size, empirical estimation yields the novel result that Australia’s consolidated budget imbalance and its foreign borrowing were approximately twinned on the basis of quarterly data for 1983–2009, when Australia’s exchange rate floated and international capital mobility was high. This result is consistent with the conceptual framework and suggests that fiscal policy is likely to be ineffective as an instrument for influencing the real economy.