Potential applications of discrete-event simulation and fuzzy rule-based systems to structural reliability and availability

This chapter discusses and illustrates some potential applications of discrete-event simulation (DES) techniques in structural reliability and availability analysis, emphasizing the convenience of using probabilistic approaches in modern building and civil engineering practices. After reviewing existing literature on the topic, some advantages of probabilistic techniques over analytical ones are highlighted. Then, we introduce a general framework for performing structural reliability and availability analysis through DES. Our methodology proposes the use of statistical distributions and techniques – such as survival analysis – to model component-level reliability. Then, using failure- and repair-time distributions and information about the structural logical topology (which allows determination of the structural state from their components’ state), structural reliability, and availability information can be inferred. Two numerical examples illustrate some potential applications of the proposed methodology to achieving more reliable and structural designs. Finally, an alternative approach to model uncertainty at component level is also introduced as ongoing work. This new approach is based on the use of fuzzy rule-based systems and it allows the introduction of experts’ opinions and evaluations in our methodology.

A brief review of recent research trends on applications of computational and statistical techniques in financial and business intelligence

Artificial neural networks and statistical techniques like decision trees, discriminant analysis, logistic regression and survival analysis play a crucial role in Business Intelligence. These predictive analytical tools exploit patterns found in historical data to make predictions about future events. In this paper we have shown some recent developments of a few of these techniques in financial and business intelligence applications like fraud detection, bankruptcy prediction and credit rating scoring.

Post-traumatic stress disorder and quality of life in sexually abused Australian children

The study used publicly available data on post-traumatic stress disorder in a sample of the Australian population with a history of sexual abuse to demonstrate how this evidence can inform economic analyses. The 2007 Australian Mental Health Survey revealed that 8.3% of 993 adolescents experienced childhood sexual abuse, of which 40.2% were diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder. Post-traumatic stress disorder diagnosis corresponded to a significant loss of quality of life. Survival analysis was used to estimate the lifetime persistence of post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms. The average time between post-traumatic stress disorder onset and remission was 11.4 years. Results suggest that successful treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder will save 2.05 quality adjusted life years per child or adolescent with post-traumatic stress disorder.

A randomised controlled trial of the effectiveness of soft silicone multi-layered foam dressings in the prevention of sacral and heel pressure ulcers in trauma and critically ill patients: The border trial

The prevention of hospital acquired pressure ulcers in critically ill patients remains a significant clinical challenge. The aim of this trial was to investigate the effectiveness of multi-layered soft silicone foam dressings in preventing intensive care unit (ICU) pressure ulcers when applied in the emergency department to 440 trauma and critically ill patients. Intervention group patients (n = 219) had Mepilex^® Border Sacrum and Mepilex^® Heel dressings applied in the emergency department and maintained throughout their ICU stay. Results revealed that there were significantly fewer patients with pressure ulcers in the intervention group compared to the control group (5 versus 20, P = 0·001). This represented a 10% difference in incidence between the groups (3·1% versus 13·1%) and a number needed to treat of ten patients to prevent one pressure ulcer. Overall there were fewer sacral (2 versus 8, P = 0·05) and heel pressure ulcers (5 versus 19, P = 0·002) and pressure injuries overall (7 versus 27, P = 0·002) in interventions than in controls. The time to injury survival analysis indicated that intervention group patients had a hazard ratio of 0·19 (P = 0·002) compared to control group patients. We conclude that multi-layered soft silicone foam dressings are effective in preventing pressure ulcers in critically ill patients when applied in the emergency department prior to ICU transfer.

Age and productivity of academics: A case study of a public university in Malaysia

This study examines the relationship between age and productivity measured based on key performance indicators (KPI) amongst academic staff at Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM). Three models were used in the analysis: linear, quadratic and piece-wise spline. The linear model indicates that age is negatively related to KPI. The quadratic model shows an inverted-U shaped relationship where KPI peaks at age 41 years. The piece-wise spline model indicates academic staff reach the peak of their productivity between ages 46-50 years with another productive age interval between 36-40 years implying 10 golden years when KPI could be harvested fruitfully. There is a significant downtrend in the KPI after 50 years of age. Other factors that have significant influence on KPI are gender, academic rank and discipline. The sub-models show that the influence of age on KPI is more significant amongst academic staff in the arts compared to the science stream. Age influence on KPI is significant amongst female staff but not male staff. We conclude that assessing performance in the workplace with regard to age requires complex methodological engagement and also needs to be based on a wider lens which recognises and includes within the discussion, the intangible and social dimensions of performance.

Multiple states of financially distressed companies: Tests using a competing-risks model

This study examines the determinants of multiple states of financial distress by applying a competing-risks model. It investigates the effect of financial ratios, market-based variables and company-specific variables, including company age, size and squared size on three different states of corporate financial distress: active companies; distressed external administration companies; and distressed takeover, merger or acquisition companies. A sample of 1,081 publicly listed Australian non-financial companies over the period 1989 to 2005 using a competing-risks model is used to determine the possible differences in the factors of entering various states of financial distress. It is found that specifically, distressed external administration companies have a higher leverage, lower past excess returns and a larger size; while distressed takeover, merger or acquisition companies have a lower leverage, a higher capital utilisation efficiency and a larger size compared to active companies. Comparing the results from both the single-risk model and the competing-risks model reveals the need to distinguish between financial distress states.

Urbanization impacts on mammals across urban-forest edges and a predictive model of edge effects

With accelerating rates of urbanization worldwide, a better understanding of ecological processes at the wildland-urban interface is critical to conserve biodiversity. We explored the effects of high and low-density housing developments on forest-dwelling mammals. Based on habitat characteristics, we expected a gradual decline in species abundance across forest-urban edges and an increased decline rate in higher contrast edges. We surveyed arboreal mammals in sites of high and low housing density along 600 m transects that spanned urban areas and areas turn on adjacent native forest. We also surveyed forest controls to test whether edge effects extended beyond our edge transects. We fitted models describing richness, total abundance and individual species abundance. Low-density housing developments provided suitable habitat for most arboreal mammals. In contrast, high-density housing developments had lower species richness, total abundance and individual species abundance, but supported the highest abundances of an urban adapter (Trichosurus vulpecula). We did not find the predicted gradual decline in species abundance. Of four species analysed, three exhibited no response to the proximity of urban boundaries, but spilled over into adjacent urban habitat to differing extents. One species (Petaurus australis) had an extended negative response to urban boundaries, suggesting that urban development has impacts beyond 300 m into adjacent forest. Our empirical work demonstrates that high-density housing developments have negative effects on both community and species level responses, except for one urban adapter. We developed a new predictive model of edge effects based on our results and the literature. To predict animal responses across edges, our framework integrates for first time: (1) habitat quality/preference, (2) species response with the proximity to the adjacent habitat, and (3) spillover extent/sensitivity to adjacent habitat boundaries. This framework will allow scientists, managers and planners better understand and predict both species responses across edges and impacts of development in mosaic landscapes.

Retirement patterns of Australian doctors aged 65 years and older.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate retirements over a 4-year period among Australian general practitioners (UPs) and specialists aged 65 years and over, and factors influencing retirement. METHODS: Data from Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life (MABEL) for the years 2009-12 were analysed for 435 GPs and 643 specialists aged 65 years and over at the time of entry to the MABEL survey. Discrete time survival analysis was used. RESULTS: The retirement rates were 4.1% (2009), 5.1% (2010), 4.2% (2011) and 10.4% (2012). Retirement was associated with: (1) the intention to leave medical work in 2009 and 2010; (2) working fewer hours in private consulting rooms in 2010 and 2012; (3) having lower job satisfaction in 2009 and 2011; (4) being older in 2009; (5) working fewer hours in a public hospital in 2012; and (6) working fewer hours in a private hospital in 2010. Doctors who intended to reduce their working hours were less likely to retire in 2009. CONCLUSIONS: Strategies to support doctors at the late career stage to provide their valued contributions to the medical workforce for as long as possible may include increasing job satisfaction and addressing barriers to reducing work hours.

Determining the sensitivity of the Antarctic amphipod Orchomenella pinguides to metals using a joint model of survival response to exposure concentration and duration

Developing water quality guidelines for Antarctic marine environments requires understanding the sensitivity of local biota to contaminant exposure. Antarctic invertebrates have shown slower contaminant responses in previous experiments compared to temperate and tropical species in standard toxicity tests. Consequently, test methods which take into account environmental conditions and biological characteristics of cold climate species need to be developed. This study investigated the effects of five metals on the survival of a common Antarctic amphipod, Orchomenella pinguides. Multiple observations assessing mortality to metal exposure were made over the 30 days exposure period. Traditional toxicity tests with quantal data sets are analysed using methods such as maximum likelihood regression (probit analysis) and Spearman–Kärber which treat individual time period endpoints independently. A new statistical model was developed to integrate the time-series concentration–response data obtained in this study. Grouped survival data were modelled using a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) which incorporates all the data obtained from multiple observation times to derive time integrated point estimates. The sensitivity of the amphipod, O. pinguides, to metals increased with increasing exposure time. Response times varied for different metals with amphipods responding faster to copper than to cadmium, lead or zinc. As indicated by 30 days lethal concentration (LC50) estimates, copper was the most toxic metal (31 µg/L), followed by cadmium (168 µg/L), lead (256 µg/L) and zinc (822 µg/L). Nickel exposure (up to 1.12 mg/L) did not affect amphipod survival. Using longer exposure durations and utilising the GAMM model provides an improved methodology for assessing sensitivities of slow responding Antarctic marine invertebrates to contaminants.

Integrating acoustic telemetry into mark-recapture models to improve the precision of apparent survival and abundance estimates

Capture-mark-recapture models are useful tools for estimating demographic parameters but often result in low precision when recapture rates are low. Low recapture rates are typical in many study systems including fishing-based studies. Incorporating auxiliary data into the models can improve precision and in some cases enable parameter estimation. Here, we present a novel application of acoustic telemetry for the estimation of apparent survival and abundance within capture-mark-recapture analysis using open population models. Our case study is based on simultaneously collecting longline fishing and acoustic telemetry data for a large mobile apex predator, the broadnose sevengill shark (Notorhynchus cepedianus), at a coastal site in Tasmania, Australia. Cormack-Jolly-Seber models showed that longline data alone had very low recapture rates while acoustic telemetry data for the same time period resulted in at least tenfold higher recapture rates. The apparent survival estimates were similar for the two datasets but the acoustic telemetry data showed much greater precision and enabled apparent survival parameter estimation for one dataset, which was inestimable using fishing data alone. Combined acoustic telemetry and longline data were incorporated into Jolly-Seber models using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Abundance estimates were comparable to those with longline data only; however, the inclusion of acoustic telemetry data increased precision in the estimates. We conclude that acoustic telemetry is a useful tool for incorporating in capture-mark-recapture studies in the marine environment. Future studies should consider the application of acoustic telemetry within this framework when setting up the study design and sampling program.