Cost effectiveness of a sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax in the U.S.

INTRODUCTION: Reducing sugar-sweetened beverage consumption through taxation is a promising public health response to the obesity epidemic in the U.S. This study quantifies the expected health and economic benefits of a national sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax of $0.01/ounce over 10 years. METHODS: A cohort model was used to simulate the impact of the tax on BMI. Assuming ongoing implementation and effect maintenance, quality-adjusted life-years gained and disability-adjusted life-years and healthcare costs averted were estimated over the 2015-2025 period for the 2015 U.S. POPULATION: Costs and health gains were discounted at 3% annually. Data were analyzed in 2014. RESULTS: Implementing the tax nationally would cost $51 million in the first year. The tax would reduce sugar-sweetened beverage consumption by 20% and mean BMI by 0.16 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]=0.06, 0.37) units among youth and 0.08 (95% UI=0.03, 0.20) units among adults in the second year for a cost of $3.16 (95% UI=$1.24, $8.14) per BMI unit reduced. From 2015 to 2025, the policy would avert 101,000 disability-adjusted life-years (95% UI=34,800, 249,000); gain 871,000 quality-adjusted life-years (95% UI=342,000, 2,030,000); and result in $23.6 billion (95% UI=$9.33 billion, $54.9 billion) in healthcare cost savings. The tax would generate $12.5 billion in annual revenue (95% UI=$8.92, billion, $14.1 billion). CONCLUSIONS: The proposed tax could substantially reduce BMI and healthcare expenditures and increase healthy life expectancy. Concerns regarding the potentially regressive tax may be addressed by reduced obesity disparities and progressive earmarking of tax revenue for health promotion.

Cost effectiveness of an elementary school active physical education policy

INTRODUCTION: Many American children do not meet recommendations for moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Although school-based physical education (PE) provides children with opportunities for MVPA, less than half of PE minutes are typically active. The purpose of this study is to estimate the cost effectiveness of a state "active PE" policy implemented nationally requiring that at least 50% of elementary school PE time is spent in MVPA. METHODS: A cohort model was used to simulate the impact of an active PE policy on physical activity, BMI, and healthcare costs over 10 years for a simulated cohort of the 2015 U.S. population aged 6-11 years. Data were analyzed in 2014. RESULTS: An elementary school active PE policy would increase MVPA per 30-minute PE class by 1.87 minutes (95% uncertainty interval [UI]=1.23, 2.51) and cost $70.7 million (95% UI=$51.1, $95.9 million) in the first year to implement nationally. Physical activity gains would cost $0.34 per MET-hour/day (95% UI=$0.15, $2.15), and BMI could be reduced after 2 years at a cost of $401 per BMI unit (95% UI=$148, $3,100). From 2015 to 2025, the policy would cost $235 million (95% UI=$170 million, $319 million) and reduce healthcare costs by $60.5 million (95% UI=$7.93 million, $153 million). CONCLUSIONS: Implementing an active PE policy at the elementary school level could have a small impact on physical activity levels in the population and potentially lead to reductions in BMI and obesity-related healthcare expenditures over 10 years.

Cost effectiveness of childhood obesity interventions: Evidence and methods for CHOICES

INTRODUCTION: The childhood obesity epidemic continues in the U.S., and fiscal crises are leading policymakers to ask not only whether an intervention works but also whether it offers value for money. However, cost-effectiveness analyses have been limited. This paper discusses methods and outcomes of four childhood obesity interventions: (1) sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax (SSB); (2) eliminating tax subsidy of TV advertising to children (TV AD); (3) early care and education policy change (ECE); and (4) active physical education (Active PE). METHODS: Cost-effectiveness models of nationwide implementation of interventions were estimated for a simulated cohort representative of the 2015 U.S. population over 10 years (2015-2025). A societal perspective was used; future outcomes were discounted at 3%. Data were analyzed in 2014. Effectiveness, implementation, and equity issues were reviewed. RESULTS: Population reach varied widely, and cost per BMI change ranged from $1.16 (TV AD) to $401 (Active PE). At 10 years, assuming maintenance of the intervention effect, three interventions would save net costs, with SSB and TV AD saving $55 and $38 for every dollar spent. The SSB intervention would avert disability-adjusted life years, and both SSB and TV AD would increase quality-adjusted life years. Both SSB ($12.5 billion) and TV AD ($80 million) would produce yearly tax revenue. CONCLUSIONS: The cost effectiveness of these preventive interventions is greater than that seen for published clinical interventions to treat obesity. Cost-effectiveness evaluations of childhood obesity interventions can provide decision makers with information demonstrating best value for the money.

Modeling the cost effectiveness of child care policy changes in the U.S.

INTRODUCTION: Child care facilities influence diet and physical activity, making them ideal obesity prevention settings. The purpose of this study is to quantify the health and economic impacts of a multi-component regulatory obesity policy intervention in licensed U.S. child care facilities. METHODS: Two-year costs and BMI changes resulting from changes in beverage, physical activity, and screen time regulations affecting a cohort of up to 6.5 million preschool-aged children attending child care facilities were estimated in 2014 using published data. A Markov cohort model simulated the intervention's impact on changes in the U.S. population from 2015 to 2025, including short-term BMI effects and 10-year healthcare expenditures. Future outcomes were discounted at 3% annually. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses simulated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) around outcomes. RESULTS: Regulatory changes would lead children to watch less TV, get more minutes of moderate and vigorous physical activity, and consume fewer sugar-sweetened beverages. Within the 6.5 million eligible population, national implementation could reach 3.69 million children, cost $4.82 million in the first year, and result in 0.0186 fewer BMI units (95% UI=0.00592 kg/m(2), 0.0434 kg/m(2)) per eligible child at a cost of $57.80 per BMI unit avoided. Over 10 years, these effects would result in net healthcare cost savings of $51.6 (95% UI=$14.2, $134) million. The intervention is 94.7% likely to be cost saving by 2025. CONCLUSIONS: Changing child care regulations could have a small but meaningful impact on short-term BMI at low cost. If effects are maintained for 10 years, obesity-related healthcare cost savings are likely.

Leaning too far? PISA, policy and Australia's ‘top five’ ambitions

 Australia has declared its ambition to be within the ‘top five’ in the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) by 2025. So serious is it about this ambition, that the Australian Government has incorporated it into the Australian Education Act, 2013. Given this focus on PISA results and rankings, we go beyond average scores to take a close look at Australia’s performance in PISA, examining rankings by different geographical units, by item content and by test completion. Based on this analysis and using data from interviews with measurement and policy experts, we show how uninformative and even misleading the ‘average performance scores’, on which the rankings are based, can be. We explore how a more nuanced understanding would point to quite different policy actions. After considering the PISA data and Australia’s ‘top five’ ambition closely, we argue that neither the rankings nor such ambitions should be given much credence.

Salt reduction in Australia: from advocacy to action

BACKGROUND: As part of its endorsement of the World Health Organization's Global Action Plan to prevent non-communicable diseases, the Federal Government of Australia has committed to a 30% reduction in average population salt intake by 2025. Currently, mean daily salt intake levels are 8-9 g, varying by sex, region and population group. A number of salt reduction initiatives have been established over the last decade, but key elements for a co-ordinated population-level strategy are still missing. The objective of this review is to provide a comprehensive overview of existing population-level salt reduction activities in Australia and identify opportunities for further action.

METHODS: A review of the published literature and stakeholder activities was undertaken to identify and document current activities. The activities were then assessed against a pre-defined framework for salt reduction strategies.

RESULTS: A range of initiatives were identified from the review. The Australian Division of World Action on Salt and Health (AWASH) was established in 2005 and in 2007 launched its Drop the Salt! Campaign. This united non-governmental organisations (NGOs), health and medical and food industry organisations in a co-ordinated advocacy effort to encourage government to develop a national strategy to reduce salt. Subsequently, in 2010 the Federal Government launched its Food and Health Dialogue (FHD) with a remit to improve the health of the food supply in Australia through voluntary partnerships with food industry, government and non-government public health organisations. The focus of the FHD to date has been on voluntary reformulation of foods, primarily through salt reduction targets. More recently, in December 2014, the government's Health Star Rating system was launched. This front of pack labelling scheme uses stars to highlight the nutritional profile of packaged foods. Both government initiatives have clear targets or criteria for industry to meet, however, both are voluntary and the extent of industry uptake is not yet clear. There is also no parallel public awareness campaign to try and influence consumer behaviour relating to salt and no agreed mechanism for monitoring national changes in salt intake. The Victorian Health Promotion Foundation (VicHealth) has recently instigated a State-level partnership to advance action and will launch its strategy in 2015.

CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, salt reduction activities are currently being implemented through a variety of different programs but additional efforts and more robust national monitoring mechanisms are required to ensure that Australia is on track to achieve the proposed 30% reduction in salt intake within the next decade.

Progress on salt reduction in the Pacific Islands: from strategies to action

BACKGROUND: Most populations are consuming too much salt which is the main contributor of high blood pressure, a leading risk factor of cardiovascular disease and stroke. The South Pacific Office of the World Health Organization has been facilitating the development of salt reduction strategies in Pacific Island Countries and areas (PICs). The objective of this analysis was to review progress to date and identify regional actions needed to support PICs and ensure they achieve the global target to reduce population salt intake by 30% by 2025.
METHODS: Relevant available national food, health and non-communicable disease (NCD) plans from all 22 PICs were reviewed. NCD co-ordinators provided updates and relayed experiences through semi-structured interviews. All activities were systematically categorised according to an existing salt reduction framework for the development of salt reduction strategies.
RESULTS: Salt reduction consultations had been held in 14 countries and final strategies or action plans developed in nine of these, with drafts available in a further three. Three other countries had integrated salt reduction into NCD strategic plans. Baseline monitoring of salt intake had been undertaken in three countries, salt levels in foods in nine countries and salt knowledge, attitude and behaviour surveys in four countries. Most countries were at early stages of implementation and identified limited resources as a barrier to action. Planned salt reduction strategies included work with food industry or importers, implementing regional salt reduction targets, reducing salt levels in school and hospital meals, behaviour change campaigns, and monitoring and evaluation.
CONCLUSIONS: There had been good progress on salt reduction planning in PICs. The need for increased capacity to effectively implement agreed activities, supported by regional standards and the establishment of improved monitoring systems, were identified as important steps to ensure the potential cardiovascular health benefits of salt reduction could be fully realised in the region.

Prevalence of disability in Australian elderly: impact of trends in obesity and diabetes

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate the impact of past and future changes in obesity and diabetes prevalence in mid-life on disability prevalence for adult Australians. METHODS: We analysed data from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (AusDiab) including participants aged 45-64years, disability-free at baseline (1999/2000) with disability information at follow-up (2011/12) (n=2107). We used coefficients from multinomial logistic regression to predict 10-year probabilities of disability and death from baseline predictors (age, sex, obesity, smoking, diabetes and hypertension). We estimated the prevalence of disability attributable to past (1980) and expected future (2025) changes in obesity and diabetes prevalence using the life table approach. RESULTS: We estimated that the prevalence of disability for those aged between 55 and 74years would have been 1697 cases per 100,000 persons less in 2010 (10.3% less) if the rates of obesity and diabetes observed in 2000 had been as low as the levels observed in 1980. However, if instead the prevalence of obesity and diabetes had been as high as the levels expected in 2025, then the prevalence of disability would have been an additional 2173 per 100,000 persons (an additional 13.2%). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate, for the first time, a substantial potential impact of obesity and diabetes trends on disability amongst those aged 55-74years. In Australian adults by 2025 we estimate that around 26% of disability cases would have been avoidable if there had been no change in obesity and diabetes prevalence since 1980. A similar impact is likely around the world in developed countries.

Diabetes prevention and treatment strategies: are we doing enough?

OBJECTIVE: Effective interventions to prevent, delay, or remit diabetes are currently available. However, their impact on the prevalence of diabetes at the population level is unknown. This study aimed to estimate the impact of a range of diabetes interventions on the population prevalence of diabetes for Australian adults between 2010 and 2025. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used the Australian Diabetes Projection Model to estimate the impact of a population-wide strategy, high-risk prevention, surgical diabetes treatment, and a combination strategy on the future population prevalence of diabetes and to estimate the number of diabetes cases that could be potentially prevented in the year 2025. RESULTS: We estimate that a population-wide strategy would reduce the number of diabetes cases by 60,000-85,000 in 2025 from an estimated 2 million cases under the status quo scenario. A high-risk prevention strategy would result in 106,000 to 150,000 fewer cases of diabetes in 2025, and surgically induced weight loss would result in 3,000-6,000 fewer cases. No single intervention, or combination of interventions, reversed the increasing trend in diabetes prevalence over the next 15 years. CONCLUSIONS: To reverse upward trends in diabetes prevalence in future years, it is essential that current approaches to diabetes prevention and treatment are optimized and implemented and that alternative approaches to reduce the prevalence of diabetes at a population level are developed.

Projecting the burden of diabetes in Australia - what is the size of the matter?

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the implications of using different methods to predict diabetes prevalence for the future. APPROACH: Different methods used to predict diabetes were compared and recommendations are made. CONCLUSION: We recommend that all projections take a conservative approach to diabetes prevalence prediction and present a 'base case' using the most robust, contemporary data available. We also recommend that uncertainty analyses be included in all analyses. IMPLICATIONS: Despite variation in assumptions and methodology used, all the published predictions demonstrate that diabetes is an escalating problem for Australia. We can safely assume that unless trends in diabetes incidence are reversed there will be at least 2 million Australian adults with diabetes by 2025. If obesity and diabetes incidence trends, continue upwards, and mortality continues to decline, up to 3 million people will have diabetes by 2025, with the figure closer to 3.5 million by 2033. The impact of this for Australia has not been measured.

Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: With incidence rates for diabetes increasing rapidly worldwide, estimates of the magnitude of the impact on population health are required. We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes, the number of years lived free of, and the number of years lived with diabetes for the Australian adult population from the year 2000, and to project prevalence of diabetes to the year 2025. METHODS: Multi-state life-tables were constructed to simulate the progress of a cohort of 25-year-old Australians. National mortality rates were combined with incidence rates of diabetes and the RR of mortality in people with diabetes derived from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (a national, population-based study of 11,247 adults aged >or=25 years). RESULTS: If the rates of mortality and diabetes incidence observed over the period 2000-2005 continue, 38.0% (95% uncertainty interval 36.6-38.9) of 25-year-olds would be expected to develop diabetes at some time throughout their life. On average, a 25-year-old Australian will live a further 56 years, 48 of these free of diabetes. On average, a 45-year-old person with diabetes can expect to live 6 years less than a person free of diabetes. The prevalence of diabetes is projected to rise from 7.6% in 2000 to 11.4% by 2025. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: If we maintain current diabetes incidence rates, more than a third of individuals will develop diabetes within their lifetime and in Australia there will an additional 1 million cases of diabetes by the year 2025.

Continuous validation for data analytics systems

From a future history of 2025: Continuous development is common for build/test (continuous integration) and operations (devOps). This trend continues through the lifecycle, into what we call `devUsage': continuous usage validation. In addition to ensuring systems meet user needs, organisations continuously validate their legal and ethical use. The rise of end-user programming and multi-sided platforms exacerbate validation challenges. A separate trend isthe specialisation of software engineering for technical domains, including data analytics. This domain has specific validation challenges. We must validate the accuracy of sta-tistical models, but also whether they have illegal or unethical biases. Usage needs addressed by machine learning are sometimes not speci able in the traditional sense, and statistical models are often `black boxes'. We describe future research to investigate solutions to these devUsage challenges for data analytics systems. We will adapt risk management and governance frameworks previously used for soft-ware product qualities, use social network communities for input from aligned stakeholder groups, and perform cross-validation using autonomic experimentation, cyber-physical data streams, and online discursive feedback.

Progress achieved in restricting the marketing of high-fat, sugary and salty food and beverage products to children

In May 2010, 192 Member States endorsed Resolution WHA63.14 to restrict the marketing of food and non-alcoholic beverage products high in saturated fats, trans fatty acids, free sugars and/or salt to children and adolescents globally. We examined the actions taken between 2010 and early 2016 - by civil society groups, the World Health Organization (WHO) and its regional offices, other United Nations (UN) organizations, philanthropic institutions and transnational industries - to help decrease the prevalence of obesity and diet-related noncommunicable diseases among young people. By providing relevant technical and policy guidance and tools to Member States, WHO and other UN organizations have helped protect young people from the marketing of branded food and beverage products that are high in fat, sugar and/or salt. The progress achieved by the other actors we investigated appears variable and generally less robust. We suggest that the progress being made towards the full implementation of Resolution WHA63.14 would be accelerated by further restrictions on the marketing of unhealthy food and beverage products and by investing in the promotion of nutrient-dense products. This should help young people meet government-recommended dietary targets. Any effective strategies and actions should align with the goal of WHO to reduce premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases by 25% by 2025 and the aim of the UN to ensure healthy lives for all by 2030.