Financial fraud and the use of ratios in corporate collapse prediction models

This paper highlights the prevalence and extent of financial fraud amongst collapsed corporations. In doing so, it examines the recent spectacular corporate collapses of Parmalat in Europe, Enron and WoridCom in the USA and HIH in Australia. A new methodology that provides empirical evidence to the financial fraud claims found in the literature, is then put forward. The proposed methodology argues that if financial fraud was a possibility amongst collapsed corporations, then two premises ought to be observed in the literature on ratio based multivariate modelling for predicting corporate collapse. First, in the absence of financial fraud, we expect the models to consistently predict corporate collapse with a high degree of accuracy; particularly, as one approaches the incident of collapse. Second, if financial fraud takes place and statement figures are distorted, then we expect the financial ratios, which are the predictor variables in these models, to lose relevance and therefore their use in models will be short-lived. Empirical support from Hossari and Rahman (2004) and Hossari and Rahman (2005) is presented as evidence to the two premises.

Financial, family, and social factors impacting on cardiac rehabilitation attendance

Background
Attendance in phase 2 cardiac rehabilitation program after acute myocardial infarction is poor.

Objective
To identify and explore the demographic factors that influence peoples’ decisions to attend cardiac rehabilitation programs.

Methods
A descriptive-interpretive design was used. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 10 people post infarction in Victoria, Australia after their first scheduled appointment to attend outpatient cardiac rehabilitation. The interview transcripts were thematically analysed.

Results
The perceived relevance of cardiac rehabilitation related to the context of people’s lives, namely their financial, family and social situation, and how important program outcomes were seen to be relevant to this context.

Conclusion
The findings of this study suggest that there are a proportion of people unlikely to attend outpatient cardiac rehabilitation programs following an AMI despite encouragement to attend. It may be unrealistic to aim for 100% referral and uptake into cardiac rehabilitation programs and therefore an inappropriate endpoint by which to evaluate such programs.

Monitoring and motivating outworkers : the case of the AMP and the sale of industrial life insurance 1905-1940

The development of labor management practices in the financial services sector provides an interesting insight into how problems associated with agency issues were overcome. Within financial institutions and other white collar occupations, the use of internal labor markets emerged as an effective means of both controlling and motivating employees. However such management techniques were only effective in cases where work tasks could be internalized. The business of some types of organizations necessitated a division of work tasks between those undertaken within the office and those undertaken outside the office. The management and sale of insurance products is a case in point. This paper explores the development of processes implemented to resolve a specific type of labor management issue, namely the control of workers under conditions of uncertainty. Using the example of the Australian Mutual Provident (Australia's largest life insurer), it analyses how and why particular work relations procedures were developed.

The global financial crisis and the centro properties group earnings revision and refinancing announcements : an event study

This study analyses the impact of the global financial crisis using Centro Properties Group's earnings revision and refinancing announcements on December 17th 2007 as the event date to investigate the change in risk profile for A-REITs that were included in the S&P/ASX 300. The study finds that nine of the 25 A-REIT constituents on the S&P/ASX 300 recorded statistically significant negative abnormal returns on 17th December 2007 and that the systematic risk for many A-REITs moved significantly higher after this date. This increased systematic risk has major implications for the cost of capital to the sector.

Connection between commonly used financial ratios and misrepresentation of financial statements of collapsed corporations

This paper unravels dynamic and intriguing shifts in the use of financial ratios in signaling corporate collapse. An empirical examination of the anecdotal evidences from notable recent corporate collapses coupled with the short-lived usefulness of financial ratios in various prediction models suggest that companies(1) that deliberately misrepresent their financial statements may have taken cues from the ratios that are commonly investigated. This proposition is supported by an extensive examination of over 50 studies conducted between 1968 and 2002. The erosion in the reliability of numbers in financial statements has led to significant distortions in the predictive power of financial ratios when used in signaling corporate collapse. Recent collapses such as Parmalat in Europe, Enron and WorldCom in the U.S. and HIH in Australia, present yet another reminder that financial statement items are being misrepresented. These are all large corporations with well-established household names, and are for sure closely monitored by financial communities around the globe. Nevertheless, a common thread seems to link the collapse of these companies: none of these collapses were foreseen by credit rating agencies or foretold by the widely accepted bankruptcy prediction models. Why? This paper attempts to use some anecdotal evidence in order to provide logical explanations to the existence of such a common thread. It argues that there appears to be anecdotal evidence to suggest that directors of publicly listed companies that have collapsed may have deliberately misrepresented financial statement items.

Financial crisis and central bank independence and governance (CBIG)

This study examines the impact of Asian financial crisis on central bank independence and governance in the Asia Pacific. It applies a unique CBIG index-model for 36 countries for the period 1991 to 2005. This paper examines changes in the CBIG in the Asia Pacific before and after the Asian financial crisis in 1997. It applies a panel data pooled regression model and finds that the Asian financial crisis dummy is significantly different in the post-crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. As a result the improved CBIG in the post-crisis period has contributed to lower the inflation in the entire region.

Vulnerability, trade, financial flows and state failure in small island developing states

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are very different to other developing countries. Relative to GDP they have the highest levels of foreign trade and aid receipts of all developing countries. Remittances from abroad are a far more important source of income for SIDS, and some depend very heavily on export revenues. The quality of governance varies tremendously among SIDS, they are over-represented among countries classified as fragile states and many are prone to state failure. These and other factors combine to make SIDS highly vulnerable to external economic shocks. Achieving development in SIDS is as a consequence an especially complex task that requires an understanding of the roles played by aid, trade, remittances and governance in these countries. This paper looks at these issues, along with providing various stylised facts about SIDS. In so doing it serves as a background and broad contextual setting for the papers that follow in this Special Issue on 'Fragility and Development in Small Island Developing States'.

Foundation evidence of the relationship between entrepreneurs, financial issues and financial advisers

In this study financial advisers’ relative influence on entrepreneurs’ decisions have been investigated. Financial advisers are advisers, included in entrepreneurs’ discussion networks, with whom entrepreneurs discuss financial issues. The concept of financial adviser includes a range of different people with different functions, irrespective of whether these people provide the entrepreneur with finance or not. It may include people such as venture capitalists, business angels, bankers, accountants, advocates or management advisers. Based on follow-up surveys completed in relation to the Danish participation in Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), it was found that financial advisers only play a minor role in the two early phases of the entrepreneurial process before the venture is actually started. Entrepreneurs might have relationships with financial advisers in these stages, but only few of them are included in the discussion network. It was further revealed that the ties between financial advisers and entrepreneurs often are weaker than the ties entrepreneurs have with others in their discussion network. Two practical implications for financial advisers emerged from the study. First, they need to re-consider their role in the early phases of the entrepreneurial process in order to increase their influence and benefit from the co-operation. Second, they need to find a way to create a closer relationship with the entrepreneurs they advise.

Are firms hedging or speculating? The relationship between financial derivatives and firm risk

The focus of this article is an investigation of the relationship between the use of financial derivatives and firm risk using a sample of Australian firms. Our results suggest that this relationship is nonlinear in nature. Specifically, the use of financial derivatives is associated with a risk reduction for moderate derivative users. Derivative usage among extensive derivative users, on the other hand, appears to lead to an increase in firm risk. Nevertheless, compared to firms that do not make use of derivatives, there is no evidence that extensive derivative users are exposed to a risk level in excess of that of nonderivative users. The results are, therefore, indicative of a hedging motive behind the use of financial derivatives.