Rebound or resignation: developing a predictive model of return to subjective wellbeing set-point

Though subjective wellbeing (SWB) is generally stable and consistent over time, it can fall below its set-point in response to adverse life events. However, deviations from set-point levels are usually only temporary, as homeostatic processes operate to return SWB to its normal state. Given that income and close interpersonal relationships have been proposed as powerful external resources that are coincident with higher SWB, access to these resources may be an important predictor of whether or not a person is likely to recover their SWB following a departure from their set-point. Under the guiding framework of SWB Homeostasis Theory, this study considers whether access to a higher income and a committed partner can predict whether people who score lower than normal for SWB at baseline will return to normal set-point levels of SWB (rebound) or remain below the normal range (resigned) at follow-up. Participants were 733 people (53.3 % female) from the Australian Unity Longitudinal Wellbeing Study who ranged in age from 20 to 92 years (M = 59.65 years; SD = 13.15). Logistic regression analyses revealed that participants’ demographic characteristics were poor predictors of whether they rebounded or resigned. Consistent with homeostasis theory, the extent of departure from the proposed normal SWB set-point at baseline was significantly associated with rebound or resignation at time 2. These findings have implications for the way that SWB measures can be used in professional practice to identify people who are particularly vulnerable to depression and to guide the provision of appropriate and effective therapeutic interventions.

Prediction interval-based modelling and control of nonlinear processes

 Novel computational intelligence-based methods have been investigated to quantify uncertainties prevalent in the operation of chemical plants. A new family of predication interval-based controlling algorithms is proposed and successfully applied to chemical reactors in order to minimise energy consumption and operational cost.

Do military peacekeepers want to talk about their experiences? Perceived psychological support of UK military peacekeepers on return from deployment

Background: Little is known about what support the United Kingdom (UK) armed forces require when they return from operations. Aims: To investigate the perceived psychological support requirements for service personnel on peacekeeping deployments when they return home from operations and examine their views on the requirement for formal psychological debriefings. Methods: A retrospective cohort study examined the perceived psychological needs of 1202 UK peacekeepers on return from deployment. Participants were sent a questionnaire asking about their perceived needs relating to peacekeeping deployments from April 1991 to October 2000. Results: Results indicate that about two-thirds of peacekeepers spoke about their experiences. Most turned to informal networks, such as peers and family members, for support. Those who were highly distressed reported talking to medical and welfare services. Overall, speaking about experiences was associated with less psychological distress. Additionally, two thirds of the sample was in favour of a formalised psychological debriefing on return to the UK. Conclusions: This study suggests that most peacekeepers do not require formalised interventions on homecoming and that more distressed personnel are already accessing formalised support mechanisms. Additionally social support from peers and family appears useful and the UK military should foster all appropriate possibilities for such support. Declaration of Interest: The Stage 1 study was funded by the US Department of Defence (DoD) and the follow up study by the Medical Research Counsel (MRC). Neither the DoD nor MRC had any input into the design, conduct, analysis or reporting of the study. The views expressed are not those of any US or UK governmental organisation. We thank Mr Nick Blatchley of MOD for help in identifying the cohorts.

Association between perception of fault for the crash and function, return to work and health status 1 year after road traffic injury: a registry-based cohort study

Objectives To establish the association between the patient's perception of fault for the crash and 12-month outcomes after non-fatal road traffic injury.Setting Two adult major trauma centres, one regional trauma centre and one metropolitan trauma centre in Victoria, Australia.Participants 2605 adult, orthopaedic trauma patients covered by the state's no-fault third party insurer for road traffic injury, injured between September 2010 and February 2014.Outcome measures EQ-5D-3L, return to work and functional recovery (Glasgow Outcome Scale—Extended score of upper good recovery) at 12 months postinjury.Results After adjusting for key confounders, the adjusted relative risk (ARR) of a functional recovery (0.57, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.69) and return to work (0.92, 95% CI 0.86 to 0.99) were lower for the not at fault compared to the at fault group. The ARR of reporting problems on EQ-5D items was 1.20–1.35 times higher in the not at fault group. Conclusions Patients who were not at fault, or denied being at fault despite a police report of fault, experienced poorer outcomes than the at fault group. Attributing fault to others was associated with poorer outcomes. Interventions to improve coping, or to resolve negative feelings from the crash, could facilitate better outcomes in the future.

Resolving future fire management conflicts using multicriteria decision making

Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire commonly involve burning native vegetation. However, planned burning can conflict with other societal objectives such as human health and biodiversity conservation. These conflicts are likely to intensify as fire regimes change under future climates and as growing human populations encroach farther into fire-prone ecosystems. Decisions about managing fire risks are therefore complex and warrant more sophisticated approaches than are typically used. We applied a multicriteria decision making approach (MCDA) with the potential to improve fire management outcomes to the case of a highly populated, biodiverse, and flammable wildland-urban interface. We considered the effects of 22 planned burning options on 8 objectives: house protection, maximizing water quality, minimizing carbon emissions and impacts on human health, and minimizing declines of 5 distinct species types. The MCDA identified a small number of management options (burning forest adjacent to houses) that performed well for most objectives, but not for one species type (arboreal mammal) or for water quality. Although MCDA made the conflict between objectives explicit, resolution of the problem depended on the weighting assigned to each objective. Additive weighting of criteria traded off the arboreal mammal and water quality objectives for other objectives. Multiplicative weighting identified scenarios that avoided poor outcomes for any objective, which is important for avoiding potentially irreversible biodiversity losses. To distinguish reliably among management options, future work should focus on reducing uncertainty in outcomes across a range of objectives. Considering management actions that have more predictable outcomes than landscape fuel management will be important. We found that, where data were adequate, an MCDA can support decision making in the complex and often conflicted area of fire management.

Asymmetric risk and return: evidence from the Australian Stock Exchange

This paper examines volatility asymmetry in a financial market using a stochastic volatility framework. We use the MCMC method for model estimations. There is evidence of volatility asymmetry in the data. Our asymmetric stochastic volatility in mean model, which nests both asymmetric stochastic volatility (ASV) and stochastic volatility in mean models (SVM), indicates ASV sufficiently captures the risk-return relationship; therefore, augmenting it with volatility in mean does not improve its performance. ASV fits the data better and yields more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than alternatives. We also demonstrate that asymmetry mainly emanates from the systematic parts of returns. As a result, it is more pronounced at the market level and the volatility feedback effect dominates the leverage effect.

Multi-output interval type-2 fuzzy logic system for protein secondary structure prediction

A new multi-output interval type-2 fuzzy logic system (MOIT2FLS) is introduced for protein secondary structure prediction in this paper. Three outputs of the MOIT2FLS correspond to three structure classes including helix, strand (sheet) and coil. Quantitative properties of amino acids are employed to characterize twenty amino acids rather than the widely used computationally expensive binary encoding scheme. Three clustering tasks are performed using the adaptive vector quantization method to construct an equal number of initial rules for each type of secondary structure. Genetic algorithm is applied to optimally adjust parameters of the MOIT2FLS. The genetic fitness function is designed based on the Q3 measure. Experimental results demonstrate the dominance of the proposed approach against the traditional methods that are Chou-Fasman method, Garnier-Osguthorpe-Robson method, and artificial neural network models.

A landscape-scale, applied fire management experiment promotes recovery of a population of the threatened Gouldian Finch, Erythrura gouldiae, in Australia's tropical savannas

Fire is an integral part of savanna ecology and changes in fire patterns are linked to biodiversity loss in savannas worldwide. In Australia, changed fire regimes are implicated in the contemporary declines of small mammals, riparian species, obligate-seeding plants and grass seed-eating birds. Translating this knowledge into management to recover threatened species has proved elusive. We report here on a landscape-scale experiment carried out by the Australian Wildlife Conservancy (AWC) on Mornington Wildlife Sanctuary in northwest Australia. The experiment was designed to understand the response of a key savanna bird guild to fire, and to use that information to manage fire with the aim of recovering a threatened species population. We compared condition indices among three seed-eating bird species-one endangered (Gouldian finch) and two non-threatened (long-tailed finch and double-barred finch)-from two large areas (> 2,830 km2) with initial contrasting fire regimes ('extreme': frequent, extensive, intense fire; versus 'benign': less frequent, smaller, lower intensity fires). Populations of all three species living with the extreme fire regime had condition indices that differed from their counterparts living with the benign fire regime, including higher haematocrit levels in some seasons (suggesting higher levels of activity required to find food), different seasonal haematocrit profiles, higher fat scores in the early wet season (suggesting greater food uncertainty), and then lower muscle scores later in the wet season (suggesting prolonged food deprivation). Gouldian finches also showed seasonally increasing stress hormone concentrations with the extreme fire regime. Cumulatively, these patterns indicated greater nutritional stress over many months for seed-eating birds exposed to extreme fire regimes. We tested these relationships by monitoring finch condition over the following years, as AWC implemented fire management to produce the 'benign' fire regime throughout the property. The condition indices of finch populations originally living with the extreme fire regime shifted to resemble those of their counterparts living with the benign fire regime. This research supports the hypothesis that fire regimes affect food resources for savanna seed-eating birds, with this impact mediated through a range of grass species utilised by the birds over different seasons, and that fire management can effectively moderate that impact. This work provides a rare example of applied research supporting the recovery of a population of a threatened species.

Fire severity and fire-induced landscape heterogeneity affect arboreal mammals in fire-prone forests

In fire-prone regions, wildfire influences spatial and temporal patterns of landscape heterogeneity. The likely impacts of climate change on the frequency and intensity of wildfire highlights the importance of understanding how fire-induced heterogeneity may affect different components of the biota. Here, we examine the influence of wildfire, as an agent of landscape heterogeneity, on the distribution of arboreal mammals in fire-prone forests in south-eastern Australia. First, we used a stratified design to examine the role of topography, and the relative influence of fire severity and fire history, on the occurrence of arboreal mammals 2-3 years after wildfire. Second, we investigated the influence of landscape context on the occurrence of arboreal mammals at severely burnt sites. Forested gullies supported a higher abundance of arboreal mammals than slopes. Fire severity was the strongest influence, with abundance lower at severely burnt than unburnt sites. The occurrence of mammals at severely burned sites was influenced by landscape context: abundance increased with increasing amount of unburnt and understorey-only burnt forest within a 1 km radius. These results support the hypothesis that unburnt forest and moist gullies can serve as refuges for fauna in the post-fire environment and assist recolonization of severely burned forest. They highlight the importance of spatial heterogeneity created by wildfire and the need to incorporate spatial aspects of fire regimes (e.g., creation and protection of refuges) for fire management in fire-prone landscapes.

Fighting fire and fatigue: sleep quantity and quality during multi-day wildfire suppression

This study examined firefighters' sleep quantity and quality throughout multi-day wildfire suppression, and assessed the impact of sleep location, shift length, shift start time and incident severity on these variables. For 4 weeks, 40 volunteer firefighters' sleep was assessed using wrist actigraphy. Analyses revealed that the quantity of sleep obtained on fire days was restricted, and pre- and post-sleep fatigue ratings were higher, compared to non-fire days. On fire days, total sleep time was less when: (i) sleep location was in a tent or vehicle, (ii) shifts were greater than 14 h and (iii) shifts started between 05:00 and 06:00 h. This is the first empirical investigation providing objective evidence that firefighters' sleep is restricted during wildfire suppression. Furthermore, sleep location, shift length and shift start time should be targeted when designing appropriate controls to manage fatigue-related risk and preserve firefighters' health and safety during wildfire events. Practitioner Summary: During multi-day wildfire suppression, firefighters' sleep quantity was restricted, and pre- and post-sleep fatigue ratings were higher, compared to non-fire days. Furthermore, total sleep time was less when: (i) sleep occurred in a tent/vehicle, (ii) shifts were >14 h and (iii) shifts started between 05:00 and 06:00 h.

Low-volume high-intensity interval training in a gym setting improves cardio-metabolic and psychological health

Background Within a controlled laboratory environment, high-intensity interval training (HIT) elicits similar cardiovascular and metabolic benefits as traditional moderate-intensity continuous training (MICT). It is currently unclear how HIT can be applied effectively in a real-world environment. Purpose To investigate the hypothesis that 10 weeks of HIT, performed in an instructor-led, groupbased gym setting, elicits improvements in aerobic capacity (VO2max), cardio-metabolic risk and psychological health which are comparable to MICT. Methods Ninety physically inactive volunteers (42±11 y, 27.7±4.8 kg.m-2) were randomly assigned to HIT or MICT group exercise classes. HIT consisted of repeated sprints (15-60 seconds, >90% HRmax) interspersed with periods of recovery cycling (≥25 min.session-1, 3 sessions. week-1). MICT participants performed continuous cycling (70%HRmax, 30-45 min.session-1, 5 sessions.week-1). VO2max, markers of cardio-metabolic risk, and psychological health were assessed pre and post-intervention. Results Mean weekly training time was 55±10 (HIT) and 128±44 min (MICT) (p<0.05), with greater adherence to HIT (83±14% vs. 61±15% prescribed sessions attended, respectively; p<0.05). HIT improved VO2max, insulin sensitivity, reduced abdominal fat mass, and induced favourable changes in blood lipids (p<0.05). HIT also induced beneficial effects on health perceptions, positive and negative affect, and subjective vitality (p<0.05). No difference between HIT and MICT was seen for any of these variables. Conclusions HIT performed in a real-world gym setting improves cardio-metabolic risk factors and psychological health in physically inactive adults. With a reduced time commitment and greater adherence than MICT, HIT offers a viable and effective exercise strategy to target the growing incidence of metabolic disease and psychological ill-being associated with physical inactivity.

A new color space based on K-medoids clustering for fire detection

Pixel color has proven to be a useful and robust cue for detection of most objects of interest like fire. In this paper, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is proposed to detect fire pixels in the background of an image. The proposed algorithm is introduced by the combination of a computational search method based on a swarm intelligence technique and the Kemdoids clustering method in order to form a Fire-based Color Space (FCS), in fact, the new technique converts RGB color system to FCS through a 3*3 matrix. This algorithm consists of five main stages:(1) extracting fire and non-fire pixels manually from the original image. (2) using K-medoids clustering to find a Cost function to minimize the error value. (3) applying Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to search and find the best W components in order to minimize the fitness function. (4) reporting the best matrix including feature weights, and utilizing this matrix to convert the all original images in the database to the new color space. (5) using Otsu threshold technique to binarize the final images. As compared with some state-of-the-art techniques, the experimental results show the ability and efficiency of the new method to detect fire pixels in color images.

Evaluating the role of fire disturbance in structuring small reptile communities in temperate forests

Fire is an integral disturbance shaping forest community dynamics over large scales. However, understanding the relationship between fire induced habitat disturbance and biodiversity remain equivocal. Ecological theories including the intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH) and the habitat accommodation model (HAM) offer predictive frameworks that could explain faunal responses to fire disturbances. We used an 80 year post-fire chronosequence to investigate small reptile community responses to fires in temperate forests across 74 sites. First, we evaluated if changes in species richness, abundance and evenness post-fire followed trends of prior predictions, including the IDH. Second, using competing models of fine scale habitat elements we evaluated the specific ways which fire influenced small reptiles. Third, we evaluated support for the HAM by examining compositional changes of reptile community post-fire. Relative abundance was positively correlated to age post-fire while richness and evenness showed no associations. The abundance trend was as expected based on the prior prediction of sustained population increase post-disturbance, but the trend for richness contradicted the prediction of highest diversity at intermediate levels of disturbance (according to IDH). Abundance changes were driven mainly by changes in overstorey, ground layer, and shelter, while richness and evenness did not associate with any vegetation parameter. Community composition was not strongly correlated to age since fire, thus support for the HAM was weak. Overall, in this ecosystem, frequent fire disturbances can be detrimental to small reptiles. Future studies utilizing approaches based on species traits could enhance our understanding of biodiversity patterns post-disturbance.

Effects of the fire regime on mammal occurrence after wildfire: site effects vs landscape context in fire-prone forests

Wildfires have major impacts on ecosystems globally. Fire regimes (including fire frequency, intensity, season and type of fire) influence the status of species by altering habitat suitability at the site scale, and by creating heterogeneity at the landscape scale. The relative effects of site and landscape-scale fire attributes on animal species are rarely examined together. Such knowledge is important, given that fire regimes are sensitive to changing land management practices; and that fires are predicted to become larger and more frequent in some regions as a result of climate change. Here, we tested the relative influence of elements of the fire regime (fire severity, fire history) at the site-scale, and the landscape context (extent of surrounding unburnt forest, fire heterogeneity) on the occurrence of native terrestrial mammals after severe wildfire in south-eastern Australia. We conducted surveys by using automatically triggered, infrared cameras at 80 sites in fire-prone eucalypt forests, 2-3. years post-wildfire. Thirteen native mammal species were recorded, eight of which were detected with sufficient frequency for analysis. Most species were widespread (35-90% of sites) and recorded in all fire severity classes. Fire effects at the site-level were more influential than landscape context effects arising from heterogeneity in the fire regime (e.g. extent of surrounding unburnt forest). Fire severity was the most influential of the fire-regime elements investigated, but it affected different species in different ways. This study highlights three main points relevant to conservation of terrestrial mammals after wildfire. First, spatial variation in fire severity associated with wildfire (ranging from unburned to severely burned stands) is an important contributor to the post-fire status of species. Second, post-fire environmental conditions are significant: here, rapid regeneration of vegetation following drought-breaking rains greatly influenced the suitability of post-fire habitats. Third, it is valuable to consider the effects of the fire regime at multiple scales, including both the site (forest stand) and its landscape context. Insights from short-term surveys, such as this, will be enhanced by complementary longitudinal studies, especially where they encompass environmental variation through the post-fire succession.

Fire affects microhabitat selection, movement patterns, and body condition of an Australian rodent (Rattus fuscipes)

Resource selection by animals influences individual fitness, the abundance of local populations, and the distribution of species. Further, the degree to which individuals select particular resources can be altered by numerous factors including competition, predation, and both natural- and human-induced environmental change. Understanding the influence of such factors on the way animals use resources can guide species conservation and management in changing environments. In this study, we investigated the effects of a prescribed fire on small-scale (microhabitat) resource selection, abundance, body condition, and movement pathways of a native Australian rodent, the bush rat (Rattus fuscipes). Using a before-after, control-impact design, we gathered data from 60 individuals fitted with spool and line tracking devices. In unburnt forest, selection of resources by bush rats was positively related to rushes, logs and complex habitat, and negatively related to ferns and litter. Fire caused selection for spreading grass, rushes, and complex habitat to increase relative to an unburnt control location. At the burnt location after the fire, rats selected patches of unburnt vegetation, and no rats were caught at a trapping site where most of the understory had been burnt. The fire also reduced bush rat abundance and body condition and caused movement pathways to become more convoluted. After the fire, some individuals moved through burnt areas but the majority of movements occurred within unburnt patches. The effects of fire on bush rat resource selection, movement, body condition, and abundance were likely driven by several linked factors including limited access to shelter and food due to the loss of understory vegetation and heightened levels of perceived predation risk. Our findings suggest the influence of prescribed fire on small mammals will depend on the resulting mosaic of burnt and unburnt patches and how well this corresponds to the resource requirements of particular species.