BMI and healthcare cost impact of eliminating tax subsidy for advertising unhealthy food to youth

INTRODUCTION: Food and beverage TV advertising contributes to childhood obesity. The current tax treatment of advertising as an ordinary business expense in the U.S. subsidizes marketing of nutritionally poor foods and beverages to children. This study models the effect of a national intervention that eliminates the tax subsidy of advertising nutritionally poor foods and beverages on TV to children aged 2-19 years. METHODS: We adapted and modified the Assessing Cost Effectiveness framework and methods to create the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study model to simulate the impact of the intervention over the 2015-2025 period for the U.S. population, including short-term effects on BMI and 10-year healthcare expenditures. We simulated uncertainty intervals (UIs) using probabilistic sensitivity analysis and discounted outcomes at 3% annually. Data were analyzed in 2014. RESULTS: We estimated the intervention would reduce an aggregate 2.13 million (95% UI=0.83 million, 3.52 million) BMI units in the population and would cost $1.16 per BMI unit reduced (95% UI=$0.51, $2.63). From 2015 to 2025, the intervention would result in $352 million (95% UI=$138 million, $581 million) in healthcare cost savings and gain 4,538 (95% UI=1,752, 7,489) quality-adjusted life-years. CONCLUSIONS: Eliminating the tax subsidy of TV advertising costs for nutritionally poor foods and beverages advertised to children and adolescents would likely be a cost-saving strategy to reduce childhood obesity and related healthcare expenditures.

Cost effectiveness of a sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax in the U.S.

INTRODUCTION: Reducing sugar-sweetened beverage consumption through taxation is a promising public health response to the obesity epidemic in the U.S. This study quantifies the expected health and economic benefits of a national sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax of $0.01/ounce over 10 years. METHODS: A cohort model was used to simulate the impact of the tax on BMI. Assuming ongoing implementation and effect maintenance, quality-adjusted life-years gained and disability-adjusted life-years and healthcare costs averted were estimated over the 2015-2025 period for the 2015 U.S. POPULATION: Costs and health gains were discounted at 3% annually. Data were analyzed in 2014. RESULTS: Implementing the tax nationally would cost $51 million in the first year. The tax would reduce sugar-sweetened beverage consumption by 20% and mean BMI by 0.16 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]=0.06, 0.37) units among youth and 0.08 (95% UI=0.03, 0.20) units among adults in the second year for a cost of $3.16 (95% UI=$1.24, $8.14) per BMI unit reduced. From 2015 to 2025, the policy would avert 101,000 disability-adjusted life-years (95% UI=34,800, 249,000); gain 871,000 quality-adjusted life-years (95% UI=342,000, 2,030,000); and result in $23.6 billion (95% UI=$9.33 billion, $54.9 billion) in healthcare cost savings. The tax would generate $12.5 billion in annual revenue (95% UI=$8.92, billion, $14.1 billion). CONCLUSIONS: The proposed tax could substantially reduce BMI and healthcare expenditures and increase healthy life expectancy. Concerns regarding the potentially regressive tax may be addressed by reduced obesity disparities and progressive earmarking of tax revenue for health promotion.

Testing for stock return predictability in a large Chinese panel

This paper proposes a simple panel data test for stock return predictability that is flexible enough to accommodate three key salient features of the data, namely, predictor persistency and endogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence. Using a large panel of Chinese stock market data comprising more than one million observations, we show that most financial and macroeconomic predictors are in fact able to predict returns. We also show how the extent of the predictability varies across industries and firm sizes.

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No news is not good news: evidence from the intra-day return volatility–volume relationship in Shanghai Stock Exchange

Through this research, we find that the asymmetric volatility phenomenon is reversed in the Shanghai Stock Exchange during bull markets. That is, volatility increases more with good news than with bad news. This evidence is inconsistent with the US markets. Further examination of this phenomenon reveals that the positive impact of good news on volatility is driven by the return-chasing behaviour of investors during bull markets. We also find that volatility increases after stock price declines in bear markets. After controlling for liquidity shifts, we observe similar patterns in volatility in both bull and bear markets. We posit that institutional and behavioural factors are the major driving forces of observed volatility patterns in the Chinese stock market.

Camus, philosophe: to return to our beginnings

Camus, Philosophe: To Return to our Beginnings is the first book on Camus to read Camus in light of, and critical dialogue with, subsequent French and European philosophy. It argues that, while not an academic philosopher, Albert Camus was a philosophe in more profound senses looking back to classical precedents, and the engaged French lumières of the 18th century. Aiming his essays and literary writings at the wider reading public, Camus’ criticism of the forms of ‘political theology’ enshrined in fascist and Stalinist regimes singles him out markedly from more recent theological and messianic turns in French thought. His defense of classical thought, turning around the notions of natural beauty, a limit, and mesure makes him a singularly relevant figure given today’s continuing debates about climate change, as well as the way forward for the post-Marxian Left.

Inflation tax in the lab: a theoretical and experimental study of competitive search equilibrium with inflation

In this paper we measure the effect of the inflation tax on economic activity and welfare within a controlled setting.To do so,we develop a model of price posting and monetary exchange with inflation and finite populations.The model,which provides a game–theoreticfoundation to Rocheteau and Wright(2005)'s competitive search monetary equilibrium, is used to derive theoretical propositions regarding the effects of inflation in thisenvironment, which we test with a laboratory experiment that closely implements the theoretical framework.We find that the inflation tax is harmful – with cash holdings, production and welfare all falling as inflation rises – and that its effect is relatively larger at low inflation rates than at higher rates.For instance,for inflation rates between 0%and5%, welfare in the two markets we consider (2[seller] 2[buyer] and 3 2) falls by roughly 1 percent for each percentage–point rise in inflation, compared with 0.4 percent over the range from 5% to 30%.Our findings lead us to conclude that the impact of the inflation tax should not be underestimated, even under low inflation.

Book-to-market ratio, default risk and return implications: from a negative perspective

A paradox is created by the common practice in stock evaluation models of excluding stocks with a negative book equity (BE). If we interpret the book-to-market ratio as a proxy for distress risk, it makes no sense to exclude these negative BE stocks since they are, prima facie, most prone to distress risk. This paper reassesses the relationship between default risk, return and the book-to-market ratio by incorporating negative BE stocks into the study. We find that negative BE stocks carry higher default risks than their positive BE counterparts and that these risks are not totally offset by higher returns. This suggests that a default risk filter can be used in the investment universe selection process through which the portfolio return can be enhanced.

Rebound or resignation: developing a predictive model of return to subjective wellbeing set-point

Though subjective wellbeing (SWB) is generally stable and consistent over time, it can fall below its set-point in response to adverse life events. However, deviations from set-point levels are usually only temporary, as homeostatic processes operate to return SWB to its normal state. Given that income and close interpersonal relationships have been proposed as powerful external resources that are coincident with higher SWB, access to these resources may be an important predictor of whether or not a person is likely to recover their SWB following a departure from their set-point. Under the guiding framework of SWB Homeostasis Theory, this study considers whether access to a higher income and a committed partner can predict whether people who score lower than normal for SWB at baseline will return to normal set-point levels of SWB (rebound) or remain below the normal range (resigned) at follow-up. Participants were 733 people (53.3 % female) from the Australian Unity Longitudinal Wellbeing Study who ranged in age from 20 to 92 years (M = 59.65 years; SD = 13.15). Logistic regression analyses revealed that participants’ demographic characteristics were poor predictors of whether they rebounded or resigned. Consistent with homeostasis theory, the extent of departure from the proposed normal SWB set-point at baseline was significantly associated with rebound or resignation at time 2. These findings have implications for the way that SWB measures can be used in professional practice to identify people who are particularly vulnerable to depression and to guide the provision of appropriate and effective therapeutic interventions.

Do military peacekeepers want to talk about their experiences? Perceived psychological support of UK military peacekeepers on return from deployment

Background: Little is known about what support the United Kingdom (UK) armed forces require when they return from operations. Aims: To investigate the perceived psychological support requirements for service personnel on peacekeeping deployments when they return home from operations and examine their views on the requirement for formal psychological debriefings. Methods: A retrospective cohort study examined the perceived psychological needs of 1202 UK peacekeepers on return from deployment. Participants were sent a questionnaire asking about their perceived needs relating to peacekeeping deployments from April 1991 to October 2000. Results: Results indicate that about two-thirds of peacekeepers spoke about their experiences. Most turned to informal networks, such as peers and family members, for support. Those who were highly distressed reported talking to medical and welfare services. Overall, speaking about experiences was associated with less psychological distress. Additionally, two thirds of the sample was in favour of a formalised psychological debriefing on return to the UK. Conclusions: This study suggests that most peacekeepers do not require formalised interventions on homecoming and that more distressed personnel are already accessing formalised support mechanisms. Additionally social support from peers and family appears useful and the UK military should foster all appropriate possibilities for such support. Declaration of Interest: The Stage 1 study was funded by the US Department of Defence (DoD) and the follow up study by the Medical Research Counsel (MRC). Neither the DoD nor MRC had any input into the design, conduct, analysis or reporting of the study. The views expressed are not those of any US or UK governmental organisation. We thank Mr Nick Blatchley of MOD for help in identifying the cohorts.

Association between perception of fault for the crash and function, return to work and health status 1 year after road traffic injury: a registry-based cohort study

Objectives To establish the association between the patient's perception of fault for the crash and 12-month outcomes after non-fatal road traffic injury.Setting Two adult major trauma centres, one regional trauma centre and one metropolitan trauma centre in Victoria, Australia.Participants 2605 adult, orthopaedic trauma patients covered by the state's no-fault third party insurer for road traffic injury, injured between September 2010 and February 2014.Outcome measures EQ-5D-3L, return to work and functional recovery (Glasgow Outcome Scale—Extended score of upper good recovery) at 12 months postinjury.Results After adjusting for key confounders, the adjusted relative risk (ARR) of a functional recovery (0.57, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.69) and return to work (0.92, 95% CI 0.86 to 0.99) were lower for the not at fault compared to the at fault group. The ARR of reporting problems on EQ-5D items was 1.20–1.35 times higher in the not at fault group. Conclusions Patients who were not at fault, or denied being at fault despite a police report of fault, experienced poorer outcomes than the at fault group. Attributing fault to others was associated with poorer outcomes. Interventions to improve coping, or to resolve negative feelings from the crash, could facilitate better outcomes in the future.

Asymmetric risk and return: evidence from the Australian Stock Exchange

This paper examines volatility asymmetry in a financial market using a stochastic volatility framework. We use the MCMC method for model estimations. There is evidence of volatility asymmetry in the data. Our asymmetric stochastic volatility in mean model, which nests both asymmetric stochastic volatility (ASV) and stochastic volatility in mean models (SVM), indicates ASV sufficiently captures the risk-return relationship; therefore, augmenting it with volatility in mean does not improve its performance. ASV fits the data better and yields more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than alternatives. We also demonstrate that asymmetry mainly emanates from the systematic parts of returns. As a result, it is more pronounced at the market level and the volatility feedback effect dominates the leverage effect.