A hybrid weighted aggregation method based on consistency and consensus in group decision making

A recent study in Science indicated that the confidence of a decision maker played an essential role in group decision making problems. In order to make use of the information of each individual's confidence of the current decision problem, a new hybrid weighted aggregation method to solve a group decision making peoblem is proposed in this paper. Specifically, the hybrid weight of each expert is generated by a convex combination of his/her subjective experience-based weight and objective problem-domain-based weight. The experience-based weight is derived from the expert's historical experiences and the problem-domain-based weight is characterized by the confidence degree and consensus degree of each expert's opinions in the current decision making process. Based on the hybrid weighted aggregation method, all the experts' opinions which are expressed in the form of fuzzy preference relations are consequently aggregated to obtain a collective group opinion. Some valuable properities of the proposed method are discussed. A nurse manager hiring problem in a hospital is employed to illustrate that the proposed method provides a rational and valid solution for the group decision making problem when the experts are not willing to change their initial preferences, or the cost of change is high due to time limitation.

Development of a valid and reliable video-based decision-making test for Australian football umpires

To develop a valid and reliable video-based decision-making test to examine and monitor the decision-making performance of Australian football umpires.

‘Moral luck’ and the question of autonomy, choice, and control in end-of-life decision making

It is commonly assumed that, in the realm of ethical decision making at the end-of-life, ‘luck’ and ‘risk’ do not intrude. Nonetheless ‘moral luck’ (where happenstance makes a moral difference) does intrude and can have an unanticipated impact on the ultimate moral outcomes of end-of-life care. In the interests of upholding the ethical standards of end-of-life care, healthcare providers have increasingly relied on ethical principlism as a rational decision-guiding frame in the sincere belief that such an approach will enable patient selfdetermination and control over treatment decisions when needing end-of-life care. Due to contextual variables and associated uncertainties in end-of-life care, however, the intended moral outcomes of appeals to commonly accepted ethical principles (in particular the principle of autonomy) are not always realized. What is not always appreciated is that whether ‘good’ or ‘bad’ moral outcomes are achieved can be as much a matter of chance as of choice. This essay explores the relevance and possible implications of moral luck in end-of-life decision making and care. A key conclusion of the paper is that the notion of moral luck needs to be taken seriously in end-of-life care contexts since it can have an unanticipated impact on the outcomes of the decisions that are made and thereby on the moral interests of patients facing the end of their lives.

Critically impaired infants and end of life decision making : resource allocation and difficult decisions

Decisions to withdraw or withhold life-sustaining treatment are contentious, and offer difficult moral dilemmas to both medical practitioners and the judiciary. This issue is exacerbated when the patient is unable to exercise autonomy and is entirely dependent on the will of others.This book focuses on the legal and ethical complexities surrounding end of life decisions for critically impaired and extremely premature infants. Neera Bhatia explores decisions to withdraw or withhold life-sustaining treatment from critically impaired infants and addresses the controversial question, which lives are too expensive to treat? Bringing to bear such key issues as clinical guidance, public awareness, and resource allocation, the book provides a rational approach to end of life decision making, where decisions to withdraw or withhold treatment may trump other competing interests.The book will be of great interest and use to scholars and students of bioethics, medical law, and medical practitioners.

Decision-making on birth choices following a caesarean delivery in Taiwan

 A qualitative research aimed to explore decision-making on birth choices following a caesarean delivery in Taiwan. Safety and risk management were the major influences for both Taiwanese women’s and obstetricians’ decisions. Biased information provision regarding birth options and over-medicalisation of the birth environment contributed to women seeking repeat caesarean delivery.

The factors influencing the decision making of operative treatment for proximal humeral fractures

Background:
The factors influencing the decision making of operative treatment for fractures of the proximal humerus are debated. We hypothesized that there is no difference in treatment recommendations between surgeons shown radiographs alone and those shown radiographs and patient information. Secondarily, we addressed (1) factors associated with a recommendation for operative treatment, (2) factors associated with recommendation for arthroplasty, (3) concordance with the recommendations of the treating surgeons, and (4) factors affecting the inter-rater reliability of treatment recommendations.
Methods: A total of 238 surgeons of the Science of Variation Group rated 40 radiographs of patients with proximal humerus fractures. Participants were randomized to receive information about the patient and mechanism of injury. The response variables included the choice of treatment (operative vs nonoperative) and the percentage of matches with the actual treatment.
Results: Participants who received patient information recommended operative treatment less than those who received no information. The patient information that had the greatest influence on treatment recommendations included age (55%) and fracture me chanism (32%). The only other factor associated with a recommendation for operative treatment was region of practice. There was no significant difference between participants who were and were not provided with information regarding agreement with the actual treatment (operative vs nonoperative) provided by the treating surgeon.
Conclusion: Patient information - older age in particular - is associated with a higher likelihood of recommending nonoperative treatment than radiographs alone. Clinical information did not improve agreement of the Science of Variation Group with the actual treatment or the generally poor interobserver agreement on treatment recommendations

Decision making after 50 days of simulated weightlessness

By restricting physical activity levels, the bed rest simulation of weightlessness could be associated with changes in prefrontal cortex functioning that manifest as cognitive decrements, particularly for executive cognitive functions. We aimed to determine if performance on an executive function task was indeed affected by bed rest. The Iowa Gambling Task, a card game measuring real-life decision making processes, was administered to 25 healthy males (aged 21-45 years) selected to undergo 60 days of 6 degrees head-down tilt bed rest for the 2nd Berlin BedRest Study (BBR2-2). Testing was conducted either 6 days before beginning bed rest (n=13) or on the 51st day of bed rest (n=12). The task performance scores of subjects tested before bed rest were not significantly different from those tested during bed rest. However, subjects tested during bed rest failed to adapt their card selection strategy as the Iowa Gambling Task progressed. This was unlike the subjects tested before bed rest, who switched between decks on consecutive card selections less frequently in latter stages of the task. An influence of prolonged bed rest on decision making could have implications for the planning of human spaceflights to Mars, or for any circumstance in which adequate physical activity levels are not achieved.

Resolving future fire management conflicts using multicriteria decision making

Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire commonly involve burning native vegetation. However, planned burning can conflict with other societal objectives such as human health and biodiversity conservation. These conflicts are likely to intensify as fire regimes change under future climates and as growing human populations encroach farther into fire-prone ecosystems. Decisions about managing fire risks are therefore complex and warrant more sophisticated approaches than are typically used. We applied a multicriteria decision making approach (MCDA) with the potential to improve fire management outcomes to the case of a highly populated, biodiverse, and flammable wildland-urban interface. We considered the effects of 22 planned burning options on 8 objectives: house protection, maximizing water quality, minimizing carbon emissions and impacts on human health, and minimizing declines of 5 distinct species types. The MCDA identified a small number of management options (burning forest adjacent to houses) that performed well for most objectives, but not for one species type (arboreal mammal) or for water quality. Although MCDA made the conflict between objectives explicit, resolution of the problem depended on the weighting assigned to each objective. Additive weighting of criteria traded off the arboreal mammal and water quality objectives for other objectives. Multiplicative weighting identified scenarios that avoided poor outcomes for any objective, which is important for avoiding potentially irreversible biodiversity losses. To distinguish reliably among management options, future work should focus on reducing uncertainty in outcomes across a range of objectives. Considering management actions that have more predictable outcomes than landscape fuel management will be important. We found that, where data were adequate, an MCDA can support decision making in the complex and often conflicted area of fire management.

Brain substrates of social decision-making in dual diagnosis: cocaine dependence and personality disorders

Cocaine dependence frequently co-occurs with personality disorders, leading to increased interpersonal problems and greater burden of disease. Personality disorders are characterised by patterns of thinking and feeling that divert from social expectations. However, the comorbidity between cocaine dependence and personality disorders has not been substantiated by measures of brain activation during social decision-making. We applied functional magnetic resonance imaging to compare brain activations evoked by a social decision-making task-the Ultimatum Game-in 24 cocaine dependents with personality disorders (CDPD), 19 cocaine dependents without comorbidities and 19 healthy controls. In the Ultimatum Game participants had to accept or reject bids made by another player to split monetary stakes. Offers varied in fairness (in fair offers the proposer shares ~50 percent of the money; in unfair offers the proposer shares <30 percent of the money), and participants were told that if they accept both players get the money, and if they reject both players lose it. We contrasted brain activations during unfair versus fair offers and accept versus reject choices. During evaluation of unfair offers CDPD displayed lower activation in the insula and the anterior cingulate cortex and higher activation in the lateral orbitofrontal cortex and superior frontal and temporal gyri. Frontal activations negatively correlated with emotion recognition. During rejection of offers CDPD displayed lower activation in the anterior cingulate cortex, striatum and midbrain. Dual diagnosis is linked to hypo-activation of the insula and anterior cingulate cortex and hyper-activation of frontal-temporal regions during social decision-making, which associates with poorer emotion recognition.