Regime dependent causality : equity and credit markets

We apply a Markov switching model to investigate the possibility of an asymmetric causal relationship between the volatility process inferred from the iTraxx CDS options market and the implied volatility from the stock index options market. We find strong evidence that the stock market leads the CDS market and the effect of the implied stock market volatility is more significant during the volatile regime. We also find that a large jump in the stock return, up or down, may indeed be followed by a regime shift.

Market failure, policy failure and other distortions in chronic disease markets

Background: The increasing prevalence of chronic disease represents a significant burden on most health systems. This paper explores the market failures and policy failures that exist in the management of chronic diseases.
Discussion: There are many sources of market failure in health care that undermine the efficiency of chronic disease management. These include incomplete information as well as information asymmetry between providers and consumers, the effect of externalities on consumer behaviour, and the divergence between social and private time preference rates. This has seen government and policy interventions to address both market failures and distributional issues resulting from the inability of private markets to reach an efficient and equitable distribution of resources. However, these have introduced a series of policy failures such as distorted re-imbursement arrangements across modalities and delivery settings.
Summary: The paper concludes that market failure resulting from a preference of individuals for 'immediate gratification' in the form of health care and disease management, rather than preventative services, where the benefits are delayed, has a major impact on achieving an efficient allocation of resources in markets for the management of chronic diseases. This distortion is compounded by government health policy that tends to favour medical and pharmaceutical interventions further contributing to distortions in the allocation of resources and inefficiencies in the management of chronic disease.

Gender wage discrimination in rural and urban labour markets of Bangladesh

Female wages in Bangladesh are significantly lower than male wages. This paper quantifies the extent to which discrimination can explain this gender wage gap across the rural and urban labour markets of Bangladesh, using unit record data from the 1999–2000 Labour Force Survey. The gender wage differential is decomposed into a component that can be explained by differences in productive characteristics and a component not explained by observable productive differences, which is attributed to discrimination. An attempt is also made to improve on the standard methodology by implementing a wage-gap decomposition method that accounts for selectivity bias, on top of the usual “explained” and “unexplained” components. Analytical results from this paper show that gender wage differentials are considerably larger in urban areas than in rural areas and a significant portion of this wage differential can be attributed to discrimination against women. The results also show that selectivity bias is an important component of total discrimination.

Does organisational heritage matter in the development of offshore markets? the case of Australian life insurers

The globalization of financial markets over the past decade has focused the spotlight on the responsiveness of financial firms to international pressures. Insurance markets have traditionally relied on global networks not only to expand the insurers' sphere of influence but also to support domestic business. Until relatively recently, Australian insurance companies have not played a significant role in the development of international markets. However, in the last decade of the twentieth century Australian insurers ventured overseas on a scale without precedence. This article presents an historical perspective on the internationalization of the Australian life-insurance market with a view to understanding why these firms have been classified "late starters" in the internationalization stakes. In a broader capacity it provides insights into the impediments to overseas expansion and the forces encouraging or discouraging the development of cross border networks.

Unchecked manipulations, price–volume relationship and market efficiency: evidence from emerging markets

This paper investigates how unchecked manipulations could cause frequent trade-induced manipulations and weak-form market inefficiency in South Asian stock markets [Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)]. Specifically, the paper analyses the price–volume relationship as one of the many cases of market inefficiency. By employing various econometric tests, this paper first provides conclusive evidence of market inefficiency in these markets. It then extracts evidence of manipulation periods from legal cases and analyses price–volume relationship during these periods. The paper finds that there exists market-wide trading-induced manipulations, where excessive buying and selling causes prices to inflate artificially before crashing down. The paper concludes that South-Asian markets are inefficient in the weak-form.

Has the structural break slowed down growth rates of stock markets?

In this paper, we use the common structural break test suggested by Bai et al. (1998) to test for a common structural break in the stock prices of the US, the UK, and Japan. On the basis of the structural break, we divide each country's stock price series into sub-samples and investigate whether or not the structural break had slowed down the growth of stock markets. Our main findings are that when stock markets are modelled in a trivariate sense the common structural break turns out to be 1990:02, with the confidence interval including several episodes, such as the asset price bubble when housing prices and stock prices in Japan reached a peak in 1988/1989, the early 1990s recession in the UK, the business cycle peak of July 1990, the August 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the March 1991 business cycle trough. Annual average growth rates suggest that the structural break has slowed down the growth rate of the US, the UK and Japanese stock markets.

Common trends and common cycles in stock markets

In this paper we examine the role of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in the S&P 500, Dow Jones and the NASDAQ. Our modeling technique involves imposing both common trend and common cycle restrictions in extracting the variance decomposition of shocks. We find that: (1) the three stock price indices are characterized by a common trend and common cycle relationship; and (2) permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in stock prices over short horizons.

Modelling urban growth futures within inner metropolitan Melbourne

In the light of the Victorian State Government's move towards the development of 'Plan Melbourne' - a new metropolitan planning strategy currently being prepared to take Melbourne forward to 2050 - the following paper attempts to address the issue of how an inner city target of 90,000 new dwellings (Inner Metropolitan Action Plan - IMAP Strategy 5) will impact on existing inner Melbourne activity centres. Working with the prospect of establishing a more compact city within the inner Melbourne region, the paper will focus on key suburbs within the Port Phillip area. Working with a 'Housing Variance Model' based on household structure and dwelling type, the paper will attempt to assess the impact on urban morphology as capacity is progressively altered through a range of built form permutations.

Mathematics: Launching Futures Proceedings of the 24th Biennial Conference of The Australian Association of Mathematics Teachers Inc.

‘Mathematics: Launching Futures’ was the theme for the 24th Biennial Conference of The Australian Association of Mathematics Teachers Inc.It was the first national conference on mathematics education since the introduction of the Australian Curriculum and so addresses the support educators will need to implement this curriculum. It also addressed concerns regarding  the low numbers of students studying higher level mathematics at school and university. A major aim of the conference was the sharing of knowledge to encourage  and support teachers at all
stages of their careers. This conference featured a joint day with the 36th Annual Conference of the Mathematics Education Research Group of Australasia (MERGA), aiming to enhance collaboations between researchers and teachers.

Credit cycle dependent spread determinants in emerging sovereign debt markets

We address credit cycle dependent sovereign credit risk determinants. In our model, the spread determinants' magnitude is conditional on an unobservable endogenous sovereign credit cycle as represented by the underlying state of a Markov regime switching process. Our explanatory variables are motivated in the tradition of structural credit risk models and include changes in asset prices, interest rates, implied market volatility, gold price changes and foreign exchange rates. We examine daily frequency variations of U.S. dollar denominated Eurobond credit spreads of four major Latin American sovereign bond issuers (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela) with liquid bond markets during March 2000 to June 2011. We find that spread determinants are statistically significant and consistent with theory, while their magnitude remarkably varies with the state of the credit cycle. Crisis states are characterized by high spread change uncertainty and high sensitivities with respect to the spread change determinants. We further document that not only changes of local currencies, but also changes of the Euro with respect to the U.S. dollar are significant spread drivers and argue that this is consistent with the sovereigns' ability to pay.