Is demography destiny? Application of machine learning techniques to accurately predict population health outcomes from a minimal demographic dataset

For years, we have relied on population surveys to keep track of regional public health statistics, including the prevalence of non-communicable diseases. Because of the cost and limitations of such surveys, we often do not have the up-to-date data on health outcomes of a region. In this paper, we examined the feasibility of inferring regional health outcomes from socio-demographic data that are widely available and timely updated through national censuses and community surveys. Using data for 50 American states (excluding Washington DC) from 2007 to 2012, we constructed a machine-learning model to predict the prevalence of six non-communicable disease (NCD) outcomes (four NCDs and two major clinical risk factors), based on population socio-demographic characteristics from the American Community Survey. We found that regional prevalence estimates for non-communicable diseases can be reasonably predicted. The predictions were highly correlated with the observed data, in both the states included in the derivation model (median correlation 0.88) and those excluded from the development for use as a completely separated validation sample (median correlation 0.85), demonstrating that the model had sufficient external validity to make good predictions, based on demographics alone, for areas not included in the model development. This highlights both the utility of this sophisticated approach to model development, and the vital importance of simple socio-demographic characteristics as both indicators and determinants of chronic disease.

Student reflections in a first year public health and health promotion unit

While reflective practice has been used extensively in nursing and teaching education over many years, the introduction of reflective practice into other disciplines is more recent. This paper provides an overview of the use of reflective practice as an assessment task in a first year, first trimester, undergraduate health promotion and public health unit. Reflective practice is included in this unit as a way for students to deal with challenges that arise during learning. This study used a coding scheme to determine the level of reflection of student journals, as well as a qualitative approach of thematic analysis to investigate themes within the student’s reflective journals. Findings of this study suggest a low level of student reflection, however; thematic analysis results in rich data that describe student aspirations for future careers.

The essential role of social theory in qualitative public health research

OBJECTIVE: To define the role of social theory and examine how research studies using qualitative methods can use social theory to generalize their results beyond the setting of the study or to other social groups. APPROACH: The assumptions underlying public health research using qualitative methods derive from a range of social theories that include conflict theory, structural functionalism, symbolic interactionism, the sociology of knowledge and feminism. Depending on the research problem, these and other social theories provide conceptual tools and models for constructing a suitable research framework, and for collecting and analysing data. In combination with the substantive health literature, the theoretical literature provides the conceptual bridge that links the conclusions of the study to other social groups and settings. CONCLUSION: While descriptive studies using qualitative research methods can generate important insights into social experience, the use of social theory in the construction and conduct of research enables researchers to extrapolate their findings to settings and groups broader than the ones in which the research was conducted.

Translating research for evidence-based public health: key concepts and future directions

Applying research to guide evidence-based practice is an ongoing and significant challenge for public health. Developments in the emerging field of ‘translation’ have focused on different aspects of the problem, resulting in competing frameworks and terminology. In this paper the scope of ‘translation’ in public health is defined, and four related but conceptually different ‘translation processes’ that support evidence-based practice are outlined: (1) reviewing the transferability of evidence to new settings, (2) translation research, (3) knowledge translation, and (4) knowledge translation research. Finally, an integrated framework is presented to illustrate the relationship between these domains, and priority areas for further development and empirical research are identified.