Improving prediction interval quality : a genetic algorithm-based method applied to neural networks

The delta technique has been proposed in literature for constructing
prediction intervals for targets estimated by neural networks. Quality of constructed prediction intervals using this technique highly depends on neural network characteristics. Unfortunately, literature is void of information about how these dependences can be managed in order to optimize prediction intervals. This study attempts to optimize length and coverage probability of prediction intervals through modifying structure and parameters of the underlying neural networks. In an evolutionary optimization, genetic algorithm is applied for finding the optimal values of network size and training hyper-parameters. The applicability and efficiency of the proposed optimization technique is examined and demonstrated using a real case study. It is shown that application of the proposed optimization technique significantly improves quality of constructed prediction intervals in term of length and coverage probability.

Mixed transfer function neural networks for knowledge acquistition

Modeling helps to understand and predict the outcome of complex systems. Inductive modeling methodologies are beneficial for modeling the systems where the uncertainties involved in the system do not permit to obtain an accurate physical model. However inductive models, like artificial neural networks (ANNs), may suffer from a few drawbacks involving over-fitting and the difficulty to easily understand the model itself. This can result in user reluctance to accept the model or even complete rejection of the modeling results. Thus, it becomes highly desirable to make such inductive models more comprehensible and to automatically determine the model complexity to avoid over-fitting. In this paper, we propose a novel type of ANN, a mixed transfer function artificial neural network (MTFANN), which aims to improve the complexity fitting and comprehensibility of the most popular type of ANN (MLP - a Multilayer Perceptron).

Load forecasting and neural networks : a prediction interval-based perspective

Successfully determining competitive optimal schedules for electricity generation intimately hinges on the forecasts of loads. The nonstationarity and high volatility of loads make their accurate prediction somewhat problematic. Presence of uncertainty in data also significantly degrades accuracy of point predictions produced by deterministic load forecasting models. Therefore, operation planning utilizing these predictions will be unreliable. This paper aims at developing prediction intervals rather than producing exact point prediction. Prediction intervals are theatrically more reliable and practical than predicted values. The delta and Bayesian techniques for constructing prediction intervals for forecasted loads are implemented here. To objectively and comprehensively assess quality of constructed prediction intervals, a new index based on length and coverage probability of prediction intervals is developed. In experiments with real data, and through calculation of global statistics, it is shown that neural network point prediction performance is unreliable. In contrast, prediction intervals developed using the delta and Bayesian techniques are satisfactorily narrow, with a high coverage probability.

Application of neural networks in modelling serviceability deterioration of concrete stormwater pipes

Stormwater pipe systems in Australia are designed to convey water from rainfall and surface runoff only and do not transport sewage. Any blockage can cause flooding events with the probability of subsequent property damage. Proactive maintenance plans that can enhance their serviceability need to be developed based on a sound deterioration model. This paper uses a neural network (NN) approach to model deterioration in serviceability of concrete stormwater pipes, which make up the bulk of the stormwater network in Australia. System condition data was collected using CCTV images. The outcomes of model are the identification of the significant factors influencing the serviceability deterioration and the forecasting of the change of serviceability condition over time for individual pipes based on the pipe attributes. The proposed method is validated and compared with multiple discriminant analysis, a traditionally statistical method. The results show that the NN model can be applied to forecasting serviceability deterioration. However, further improvements in data collection and condition grading schemes should be carried out to increase the prediction accuracy of the NN model.

Neural net device for IED gas identification

Most of the embedded systems that detect gases today are for specific types and indicate the levels of the gas present with their standard sensors. We introduce here an adaptable system that can detect and distinguish the type of gas in a volatile environment such as searching for Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs). This is achieved with a small device mounted on a mobile robot through the use of an algorithm that is an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The input layer to the ANN is an array of environmental and gas sensors. The small device, comprising of a multilayer circuit board with sensors in a rugged lightweight case, mounts on the mobile robot and communicates the gaseous data to the robot.

The ANN is implemented in the hardware of a FPGA with the control of the ANN being achieved through the configurable processor and memory. Calibration and testing of the device involves the training of device and the ANN with specific target gases. The Accuracy of the device is validated through lab testing against high-end gas test instruments with known concentrations of gases.

Modelling optimal risk allocation in PPP projects using artificial neural networks

This paper aims to establish, train, validate, and test artificial neural network (ANN) models for modelling risk allocation decision-making process in public-private partnership (PPP) projects, mainly drawing upon transaction cost economics. An industry-wide questionnaire survey was conducted to examine the risk allocation practice in PPP projects and collect the data for training the ANN models. The training and evaluation results, when compared with those of using traditional MLR modelling technique, show that the ANN models are satisfactory for modelling risk allocation decision-making process. The empirical evidence further verifies that it is appropriate to utilize transaction cost economics to interpret risk allocation decision-making process. It is recommended that, in addition to partners' risk management mechanism maturity level, decision-makers, both from public and private sectors, should also seriously consider influential factors including partner's risk management routines, partners' cooperation history, partners' risk management commitment, and risk management environmental uncertainty. All these factors influence the formation of optimal risk allocation strategies, either by their individual or interacting effects.

Hybrid neural-evolutionary model for electricity price forecasting

Evolving artificial neural networks has attracted much attention among researchers recently, especially in the fields where plenty of data exist but explanatory theories and models are lacking or based upon too many simplifying assumptions. Financial time series forecasting is one of them. A hybrid model is used to forecast the hourly electricity price from the California Power Exchange. A collaborative approach is adopted to combine ANN and evolutionary algorithm. The main contributions of this thesis include: Investigated the effect of changing values of several important parameters on the performance of the model, and selected the best combination of these parameters; good forecasting results have been obtained with the implemented hybrid model when the best combination of parameters is used. The lowest MAPE through a single run is 5. 28134%. And the lowest averaged MAPE over 10 runs is 6.088%, over 30 runs is 6.786%; through the investigation of the parameter period, it is found that by including future values of the homogenous moments of the instant being forecasted into the input vector, forecasting accuracy is greatly enhanced. A comparison of results with other works reported in the literature shows that the proposed model gives superior performance on the same data set.

A hybrid neural classifier for dimensionality reduction and data visualization and its application to fault detection and classification of induction motors

In this paper, a hybrid neural classifier combining the auto-encoder neural network and the Lattice Vector Quantization (LVQ) model is described. The auto-encoder network is used for dimensionality reduction by projecting high dimensional data into the 2D space. The LVQ model is used for data visualization by forming and adapting the granularity of a data map. The mapped data are employed to predict the target classes of new data samples. To improve classification accuracy, a majority voting scheme is adopted by the hybrid classifier. To demonstrate the applicability of the hybrid classifier, a series of experiments using simulated and real fault data from induction motors is conducted. The results show that the hybrid classifier is able to outperform the Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network, and to produce very good classification accuracy rates for various fault conditions of induction motors.

An online pruning strategy for supervised ARTMAP-based neural networks

Identifying an appropriate architecture of an artificial neural network (ANN) for a given task is important because learning and generalisation of an ANN is affected by its structure. In this paper, an online pruning strategy is proposed to participate in the learning process of two constructive networks, i.e. fuzzy ARTMAP (FAM) and fuzzy ARTMAP with dynamic decay adjustment (FAMDDA), and the resulting hybrid networks are called FAM/FAMDDA with temporary nodes (i.e. FAM-T and FAMDDA-T, respectively). FAM-T and FAMDDA-T possess a capability of reducing the network complexity online by removing unrepresentative neurons. The performances of FAM-T and FAMDDA-T are evaluated and compared with those of FAM and FAMDDA using a total of 13 benchmark data sets. To demonstrate the applicability of FAM-T and FAMDDA-T, a real fault detection and diagnosis task in a power plant is tested. The results from both benchmark studies and real-world application show that FAMDDA-T and FAM-T are able to yield satisfactory classification performances, with the advantage of having parsimonious network structures.

An experimental study of original and ordered fuzzy ARTMAP neural networks in pattern classification tasks

This paper investigates the effectiveness of an ordering algorithm applied to the supervised Fuzzy ARTMAP (FAM) neural network in pattern classification tasks. Before presenting the input patterns to the FAM network (known as ordered FAM), a fixed order of input patterns is first identified using the ordering algorithm. An experimental study is conducted to compare the results from ordered FAM with the average and voting results from original FAM. In the study, a pool of the original FAM networks is trained using different sequences of input patterns, and the results are averaged. Outputs from various original FAM networks can also be combined using a majority voting strategy to reach a final result. A database comprising various symptoms and measurements of patients suffering from heart attack is used to evaluate the various schemes of the FAM network in medical pattern classification tasks. The results are compared, analyzed, and discussed.

Integration of supervised ART-based neural networks with a hybrid genetic algorithm

In this paper, two evolutionary artificial neural network (EANN) models that are based on integration of two supervised adaptive resonance theory (ART)-based artificial neural networks with a hybrid genetic algorithm (HGA) are proposed. The search process of the proposed EANN models is guided by a knowledge base established by ART with respect to the training data samples. The EANN models explore the search space for “coarse” solutions, and such solutions are then refined using the local search process of the HGA. The performances of the proposed EANN models are evaluated and compared with those from other classifiers using more than ten benchmark data sets. The applicability of the EANN models to a real medical classification task is also demonstrated. The results from the experimental studies demonstrate the effectiveness and usefulness of the proposed EANN models in undertaking pattern classification problems.

Text-dependent speaker recognition using wavelets and neural networks

An intelligent system for text-dependent speaker recognition is proposed in this paper. The system consists of a wavelet-based module as the feature extractor of speech signals and a neural-network-based module as the signal classifier. The Daubechies wavelet is employed to filter and compress the speech signals. The fuzzy ARTMAP (FAM) neural network is used to classify the processed signals. A series of experiments on text-dependent gender and speaker recognition are conducted to assess the effectiveness of the proposed system using a collection of vowel signals from 100 speakers. A variety of operating strategies for improving the FAM performance are examined and compared. The experimental results are analyzed and discussed.

Accurate modeling of low actuation voltage RFMEMS switches using artificial neural networks

This paper presents a fast and accurate method for extracting the scattering parameters of a RF MEMS switch by using its essential parameters. A neural network is developed for parametric modeling of the switch. The essential parameters of the switch are analyzed in terms of its return loss and isolation with variation of its geometrical component values. Simulation results show that the proposed approach can be used to accurately model the RF characteristics of RF-MEMS switches. The results show good agreement between the neural network prediction and electromagnetic simulations.