Rating downgrade and the price impact of CDS spread on stock return

We investigate the time-varying informativeness of credit default swap (CDS) trading on stock returns for 302 US firms from July 2004 to August 2010. Using the Acharya and Johnson (2007) measure, we find that CDS trading becomes informative for an increasing number of firms as we approach the global financial crisis (GFC). Firm numbers gradually decline post-GFC, but remain high compared to the pre-GFC period. furthermore, CDS trading imposes the largest conditional price impact on firms that are recently downgraded, regardless of rating levels. Interestingly, this holds during and after the GFC, but not before. We offer two implications. First, despite post-GFC outcry against the CDS market, our results suggest it exhibits enhanced price discovery during the GFC. Second, our findings support criticism that, in the lead-up to the GFC, rating agencies are slow in downgrading firms. However, if downgrade decisions made during and after the GFC induce informed trading in the CDS market, this necessarily implies that during the midst of the GFC, rating agencies have got their act together.

Stress, inflammation, and cellular vulnerability during early stages of affective disorders: biomarker strategies and opportunities for prevention and intervention

The mood disorder prodrome is conceptualized as a symptomatic, but not yet clinically diagnosable stage of an affective disorder. Although a growing area, more focused research is needed in the pediatric population to better characterize psychopathological symptoms and biological markers that can reliably identify this very early stage in the evolution of mood disorder pathology. Such information will facilitate early prevention and intervention, which has the potential to affect a person’s disease course.This review focuses on the prodromal characteristics, risk factors, and neurobiological mechanisms of mood disorders. In particular, we consider the influence of early-life stress, inflammation, and allostatic load in mediating neural mechanisms of neuroprogression. These inherently modifiable factors have known neuroadaptive and neurodegenerative implications, and consequently may provide useful biomarker targets. Identification of these factors early in the course of the disease will accordingly allow for the introduction of early interventions which augment an individual’s capacity for psychological resilience through maintenance of synaptic integrity and cellular resilience. A targeted and complementary approach to boosting both psychological and physiological resilience simultaneously during the prodromal stage of mood disorder pathology has the greatest promise for optimizing the neurodevelopmental potential of those individuals at risk of disabling mood disorders.

Medicating mood with maintenance in mind : bipolar depression pharmacotherapy

Objectives:  Bipolar depression is a core feature of bipolar disorder, a phase in which many patients spend the majority of time and one that confers a significant degree of burden and risk. The purpose of this paper is to briefly review the evidence base for the pharmacotherapy of bipolar depression and to discuss the recommendations for its optimal management.Methods:  A detailed literature review was undertaken with a particular emphasis on pharmacological treatment strategies for bipolar depression across the acute and maintenance phases of the illness. Electronic library and Web-based searches were performed using recognised tools (MEDLINE, PubMED, EMBASE and PsychINFO) to identify the pertinent literature. A summary of the evidence base is outlined and then distilled into broad clinical recommendations to guide the pharmacological management of bipolar depression.Results:  Partitioning treatment into acute and maintenance therapy is difficult based on the paucity of current evidence. The evidence from treatment trials favours the use of lithium and lamotrigine as first-line treatment in preference to valproate, and indicates that, for acute episodes, quetiapine and olanzapine have perhaps achieved equivalence at least in terms of efficacy. However, the effectiveness of the atypical antipsychotics in maintenance therapy is constrained by the potential for significant side effects of individual agents and the lack of both long-term research data and clinical experience in treating bipolar disorder as compared to other agents. Conversely, lithium and the anticonvulsants are generally slower to effect symptomatic change, and this limits their usefulness.Conclusions:  There has been a tendency for research trials of bipolar depression to differentiate the illness cross-sectionally into the acute and maintenance phases of bipolar depression; however, in clinical terms, bipolar depression invariably follows a longitudinal course in which the phases of illness are inextricably linked, and useful acute treatments are typically continued in maintenance. Therefore, when medicating mood in acute bipolar depression it is imperative to keep maintenance in mind as it is this aspect of treatment that determines long-term success.

Influence of energy and polymer-escapsulated methionine supplements on mohair growth and fibre diameter of Angora goats fed at maintenance

We studied the fleece production of Angora wether goats provided with energy, to maintain liveweight, and polymer-encapsulated methionine while they were fed on poor quality roughage rations in early summer. Forty goats (mean fleece-free liveweight 28.5 kg) were randomly allotted to 5 treatments and housed individually for 12 weeks. The treatments were: control, fed to lose 5 kg liveweight; M, fed to maintain liveweight; and 3 maintenance rations with either 0.5, 1 or 2 g day-1 of polymer-encapsulated methionine. The basal ration was oaten chaff (56.8% digestible dry matter) and all maintenance- fed goats received a supplement of 150 g day- 1 gristed barley. Goats required an estimated 267 kJ ME kg-0.75 day-1 to maintain liveweight. Goats fed the control diet grew less mohair (P<0.05) with reduced mean fibre diameter (P< 0.05) than maintenance-fed goats (4.9 g day-1, 30.0 pm compared with 5.8 g day-1, 31.9 pm). For maintenance-fed animals, the addition of 1 g day- methionine (0.15% of dry matter intake) increased mohair growth by 0.8g day-1 (P<0.075). Feeding barley to prevent liveweight loss and feeding polymer-encapsulated methionine at maintenance is unlikely to result in economic responses in mohair production of goats grazing low quality summer pastures

Price dynamics, foreign exchange and anticipated shocks in a tourism economy

Using a dynamic model of an open monetary economy, this paper examines the effects of tourism-related anticipated shocks on goods prices and foreign exchange reserves. Foreign tourists consume mainly non-traded goods in holiday destinations, converting them into exportable goods. This gives rise to a tourism terms-of-trade effect that affects the accumulation of foreign exchange. Announcements of anticipated events bring tourist visits forward, resulting in an initial underadjustment or an over-adjustment in the prices of the non-traded goods when the tourism termsof-trade effect is positive or negative. This leads to an increase or a decrease in foreign reserves in the long run.