Communication of scientific uncertainty : international case studies on the development of folate and vitamin D Dietary Reference Values.

Transparent evidence-based decision making has been promoted worldwide to engender trust in science and policy making. Yet, little attention has been given to transparency implementation. The degree of transparency (focused on how uncertain evidence was handled) during the development of folate and vitamin D Dietary Reference Values was explored in three a priori defined areas: (i) value request; (ii) evidence evaluation; and (iii) final values.

Communication of scientific uncertainty: International case studies on the development of folate and vitamin D Dietary Reference Values

Objective Transparent evidence-based decision making has been promoted worldwide to engender trust in science and policy making. Yet, little attention has been given to transparency implementation. The degree of transparency (focused on how uncertain evidence was handled) during the development of folate and vitamin D Dietary Reference Values was explored in three a priori defined areas: (i) value request; (ii) evidence evaluation; and (iii) final values. Design Qualitative case studies (semi-structured interviews and desk research). A common protocol was used for data collection, interview thematic analysis and reporting. Results were coordinated via cross-case synthesis. Setting Australia and New Zealand, Netherlands, Nordic countries, Poland, Spain and UK. Subjects Twenty-one interviews were conducted in six case studies. Results Transparency of process was not universally observed across countries or areas of the recommendation setting process. Transparency practices were most commonly seen surrounding the request to develop reference values (e.g. access to risk manager/assessor problem formulation discussions) and evidence evaluation (e.g. disclosure of risk assessor data sourcing/evaluation protocols). Fewer transparency practices were observed to assist with handling uncertainty in the evidence base during the development of quantitative reference values. Conclusions Implementation of transparency policies may be limited by a lack of dedicated resources and best practice procedures, particularly to assist with the latter stages of reference value development. Challenges remain regarding the best practice for transparently communicating the influence of uncertain evidence on the final reference values. Resolving this issue may assist the evolution of nutrition risk assessment and better inform the recommendation setting process.

Navigating scientific uncertainty in wildfire and flood risk mitigation: a qualitative review

Natural hazards are complex events whose mitigation has generated a diverse field of specialised natural science expertise that is drawn upon by a wide range of practitioners and decision-makers. In this paper, the authors bring natural science research, risk studies and science and technology studies together in aid of clarifying the role scientific uncertainties play in the mitigation of natural hazards and their associated risks. Given that uncertainty is a necessary part of scientific practise and method, those engaged in risk mitigation must manage these scientific uncertainties in their decision-making just as, equally, social science researchers, stakeholders and others hoping to understand risk mitigation must understand their character and influence. To this end, the authors present the results of an extensive literature review of scientific uncertainties as they emerge in relation to wildfire and flood risk mitigation in Australia. The results are both a survey of these major uncertainties and a novel categorisation within which a variety of expert and non-expert audiences might discuss and translate the scientific uncertainties that are encountered and managed in risk mitigation.

Challenges in translating scientific evidence into mandatory food fortification policy: an antipodean case study of the folate- neural tube defect relationship

Objective: To identify challenges in translating scientific evidence of a  nutrient and health relationship into mandatory food fortification policy.
Design: A case study approach was used in which available evidence  associated with the folate–neural tube defect relationship was reviewed against the Australia New Zealand Food Regulation Ministerial Council's Policy Guideline for mandatory food fortification. Results: Three particular challenges were identified. The first is knowing when and how to act in the face of scientific uncertainty. The second is knowing how to address the special needs of at-risk individuals without compromising the health and safety of the population as a whole. The third is to ensure that a policy is sufficiently monitored and evaluated. Conclusions: Despite the availability of compelling evidence of a relationship between a particular nutrient and a health outcome, a definitive policy response may not be apparent.  Judgement and interpretation inevitably play significant roles in influencing whether and how authorities translate scientific evidence into mandatory food fortification policy. In relation to the case study, it would be prudent to undertake a risk–benefit analysis of policy alternatives and to implement nutrition education activities to promote folic acid supplement use among the target group. Should mandatory folate fortification be implemented,  comprehensive monitoring and evaluation of this policy will be essential to know that it is implemented as planned and does more good than harm. In relation to mandatory food fortification policy-making around the world,  ongoing national nutrition surveys are required to complement national policy guidelines.

Conceptual framework of the precautionary principle approach in the decision-making process

This article reviews the precautionary principle as an approach in addressing decisions with far reaching environmental consequences under scientific uncertainty. The precautionary principle is intended to assist with structuring environmentally risky decisions toward sustainable development. It responds to the lack of scientific evidence of a potential environmental problem. There is currently no framework to assist with the process indicating the areas of importance and stages of decisionmaking. This paper suggests a framework to assist with the process of decision-making for complex environmental problems. The main areas of concern are the issues relating to the costs, risks, and benefits assessments. The main stages of the framework includes; definition of the problem, analysis of the potential environmental risks, assessments of specific anticipated legal, social, economic, political, and technological impacts, review of the key players (social, organisation and government) obligations, comparison of alternatives available, determination of accountability, implementation, decision making, monitoring and control processes.

Knowing wildfire risk: scientific interactions with risk mitigation policy and practice in Victoria, Australia

Over the past decade, major landscape wildfires (or ‘bushfires’ in Australia) in fire-prone countries have illustrated the seriousness of this global environmental problem. This natural hazard presents a complex mesh of dynamic factors for those seeking to reduce or manage its costs, as ignitions, hazard behaviour, and the reactions of different human and ecological communities during and after hazard events are all extremely uncertain. But while those at risk of wildfire have been subject to significant research, the social dimensions of its management, including the role of science, have received little attention. This paper reports on a case study of the Barwon-Otway area of Victoria in Australia, a high wildfire risk area that has recently been a pilot site for a new risk mitigation strategy utilising the wildfire simulation model PHOENIX RapidFire. Against simple equations between ‘more science’ and ‘less uncertainty,’ this paper presents results from interviews and a workshop with practitioners to investigate how scientific research interacts with and informs both wildfire policy and practice. We suggest that attending to cultural and social specificities of the application of any technical innovation—such as next generation modelling—raises questions for future research about the roles of narrative, performance, and other knowledges in the sedimentation of science.

The making of modern scientific personae: the scientist as a moral person? Emil Du Bois-Reymond and his friends

This article examines the notion of the 'scientist as a moral person' in the light of the early stages of the commodification of science and the transformation of research into a big enterprise, operating on the principle of the division of labour. These processes were set in train at the end of the 19th century. The article focuses on the concomitant changes in the public persona and the habitus of scientific entrepreneurs. I begin by showing the significance of the professional networks that were built up and maintained to further a group's research ideas and the careers of its members, thus demonstrating one condition on which depended their practice of science and their ability to earn a living. This leads to a characterization of the changing styles of work, thought and life, and to a consideration of public perceptions and of the ways in which a new self-image of scholarship and science was fashioned. A critical discussion of the public role of these mandarin scientists follows in order to highlight the strains created by the commodification of science at a time of international tensions and conflicts, when shared beliefs in scholarly cosmopolitanism were subverted by appeals to science and scholarship to work in the service of one's own nation as its 'courtiers'. Various considerations of peculiar analogies between national styles of research and the style of social organization are then noted. In the final section, the article queries the long-term impact of these developments on the ideal of the scientist as a 'moral person'. Taking a cue from Max Weber and pursuing reflections by Zygmunt Bauman on 'science moralized', I argue that the emergence of a type of 'specialists without spirit' was an unintended but fatal consequence of the changes in research practices promoted by scientific entrepreneurs such as Du Bois-Reymond. I conclude that the temptation to sever the ties to a general ethos of civil virtues lay in the rationalization, specialization and potential de-humanization of the objectifying scientific outlook once advocated for its efficiency.

Tracing young children's scientific reasoning

This paper explores the scientific reasoning of 14 children across their first two years of primary school. Children's view of experimentation, their approach to exploration, and their negotiation of competing knowledge claims, are interpreted in terms of categories of epistemological reasoning. Children's epistemological reasoning is distinguished from their ability to control variables. While individual children differ substantially, they show a relatively steady growth in their reasoning, with some contextual variation. A number of these children are reasoning at a level well in advance of curriculum expectations, and it is argued that current recommended practice in primary science needs to be rethought. The data is used to explore the relationship between reasoning and knowledge, and to argue that the generation and exploration of ideas must be the key driver of scientific activity in the primary school.

From "try it and see" to strategic exploration: characterizing young children's scientific reasoning

This article explores ways of characterizing different dimensions and levels of scientific reasoning in early elementary school children, in the context of open explorations. The article focuses on children's performance on three probes which involve using evidence to generate and evaluate knowledge claims. A number of dimensions have been used to characterize children's approaches to exploration and knowledge construction, which demonstrate the interrelationship between conceptual knowledge and scientific reasoning. Children differed markedly across these dimensions, yet individual children were relatively consistent in their approach to the tasks. The major differences in performance are linked to fundamental distinctions in the way ideas are viewed in relation to evidence.

Linking environmental uncertainty to non-financial performance measures and performance : a research note

Several previous research studies have reported mixed results concerning the direct association between non-financial performance measures and  performance. The presence of environmental uncertainty on this relationship has not been established. This paper makes a contribution to this area by proposing that it is in conditions of environmental uncertainty that non-financial measures are most useful in improving organizational performance. It analyses empirical data from a sample of New Zealand manufacturing organizations to test the hypothesis that non-financial measures of performance would lead to improved organizational performance under conditions of increased environmental uncertainty. Multiple regression analysis of the data suggests that performance should be a declining function of the size of the ‘mismatch’ between an organization's environment and use of the different combinations of non-financial performance measures. Further, the paper concludes that prior mixed results may be attributed to the omission of environmental uncertainty.

Assessing the case for mandatory folate fortification : policy-making in the face of scientific uncertainties

This paper presents the view that policymakers face scientific uncertainties in assessing the case for mandatory folate fortification as a policy response to epidemiological evidence of the relationship between folate and neural tube defects. Moreover, the resolution of these uncertainties is confounded by the under-resourced state of nutrition information systems in Australia and New Zealand. The uncertainties relate to potential risks and benefits associated with the intervention for the target group and the population in general. These risks and benefits reflect the mismatch between evidence and policy that arises when addressing a presumed genetic abnormality in at-risk individuals with an intervention that is population-wide in its scope. There is an urgent need to conduct ongoing national nutrition surveys and monitor and evaluate policy interventions to strengthen the capacity of nutrition information systems to inform decision-making for this current, and future, public health nutrition policy.

Scientific proof that humans enjoy punishing wrongdoers: The implications for punishment and sentencing

Recent developments in brain science confirm that as a race we are in fact a punitive lot. Human beings actually derive pleasure from inflicting punishment on wrongdoers. We are wired in such a way that the part of our brain that reports pleasure is activated when we punish norm violators. This is even when punishment has no tangible or demonstrable benefits. However, we are not slaves lo our emotions. Another region of our brain 'kicks-in' if punishment becomes self-defeating, in that it conflicts with our other interests. The implications of this research for punishment theory and the practice of sentencing are discussed in this paper. The findings give qualified support to the theory known as intrinsic retributivism, but do not suggest it is the soundest theory of punishment. This is because we stop punishing when it comes at a cost to us. The good feeling that punishment invokes in punishers is another consequential consideration in favour of the utilitarian theory of punishment. However, it is not clear that the utilitarian calculus is necessarily affected by the findings. The main implication of the research findings relates to the relevance of public opinion to sentencing practice. The findings support the view that public sentiment, which seems to support increasingly tougher sanctions, can be curtailed of the public are informed that punishment comes of a cost to community.