Asset price bubbles and economic welfare

In this paper, we provide the first empirical evidence on whether or not asset price bubbles predict economic welfare. Using a time-series model, we show that asset price bubbles both positively and negatively predict economic welfare, although the evidence that asset price bubbles are welfare-enhancing is much stronger. These results are also robust to out-of-sample forecasting as well as to a predictive regression model augmented by structural break dates.

Determinants of stock price bubbles

In this paper we propose a cross-sectional model of the determinants of asset price bubbles. Using 589 firms listed on the NYSE, we find conclusive evidence that trading volume and share price volatility have statistically significant effects on asset price bubbles. However, evidence from sector-based stocks is mixed. We find that for firms belonging to electricity, energy, financial, and banking sectors, and for the smallest size firms, trading volume has a statistically significant and positive effect on bubbles. We do not discover any robust evidence of a statistically significant effect of share price volatility on bubbles at the sector-level.

Has the structural break slowed down growth rates of stock markets?

In this paper, we use the common structural break test suggested by Bai et al. (1998) to test for a common structural break in the stock prices of the US, the UK, and Japan. On the basis of the structural break, we divide each country's stock price series into sub-samples and investigate whether or not the structural break had slowed down the growth of stock markets. Our main findings are that when stock markets are modelled in a trivariate sense the common structural break turns out to be 1990:02, with the confidence interval including several episodes, such as the asset price bubble when housing prices and stock prices in Japan reached a peak in 1988/1989, the early 1990s recession in the UK, the business cycle peak of July 1990, the August 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the March 1991 business cycle trough. Annual average growth rates suggest that the structural break has slowed down the growth rate of the US, the UK and Japanese stock markets.

Price discovery and asset pricing

This paper tests the hypothesis that price discovery influences asset pricing. Our innovations are twofold. First, we estimate time-varying price discovery for a large number (21) of Islamic stock portfolios. Second, we test using a predictive regression model whether or not price discovery predicts stock excess returns. We find from both in-sample and out-of-sample tests that all 21 portfolio excess returns are predictable. We show that a mean-variance investor by tracking price discovery is able to devise profitable trading strategies.

A switching model of dynamic asset selling problem

This paper proposes an asset selling problem with a new selling strategy called the switching strategy where multiple homogeneous assets on hand must be sold up to a specified deadline. At each point in time the seller is permitted to decide between 1) proposing a selling price up front to an appearing buyer and 2) concealing the price and letting the buyer come up with an offer. Our analysis indicates that under certain conditions there emerges a time threshold after which the seller switches from concealing his idea for the selling price to proposing this price, and vice versa.

An empirical study of the world price of sustainability

The core goal of this study is to empirically investigate whether there is a “world price” of corporate sustainability. This is assessed in the context of standard asset pricing models—in particular, by asking whether a risk premium attaches to a sustainability factor after controlling for the Fama–French factors. Both time-series and cross-sectional tests are formulated and applied. The results show that (1) global Fama–French factors have strong power to explain global equity returns and (2) sustainability investments have no significant impact on global equity returns. The absence of a significant relationship between sustainability and returns implies that large institutional investors are free to implement sustainability mandates without fear of breaching their fiduciary duties from realising negative returns due to incorporating a sustainability investment process.

Resale price maintenance - in need of further reform

The Competition Policy Reform Act extended the resale price maintenance provisions of the Trade Practices Act 1974 to include services and provide for authorisation where the conduct can be shown to benefit the public such that it should be allowed. This article explores the scope of these changes and their shortcomings. It also seeks to provide some guidance as to their likely application and makes recommendations for further reform.

Price exhaustion and number preference : time and price confluence in Australian stock prices

Confluence occurs when different trading filters generate signals that point to the same directional move. Using regression analysis, this paper investigates confluence trading signals associated with number preference and price exhaustion, for a sample of Australian stocks. The results show that certain price levels tend to act as psychological barriers, and that price exhaustion signals are a real phenomenon in the Australian stock market. It is shown also that confluence exists in the Australian stock market. Importantly, confluence is associated with price retracements that are of economic and statistical significance, offering profitable trading opportunities. The results suggest that Australian stocks do not follow a random walk.

Mortgages and bonds: the asset management practices of Australian life insurers to 1960

Recent studies of the experience of the British life insurance industry indicate that a period of transition, and the development of more diversified investment strategies, began in the interwar period. Australian life insurers lagged behind their British counterparts in the introduction of such strategies. This paper investigates why this was the case. It argues that in the Australian market there was both a lack of opportunity and incentive to broaden asset portfolios. However, this did not mean that asset management practices did not advance. Australian life offices became progressively more sophisticated in their approach to portfolio management during this period. Developments in the interwar period provided a grounding for post-war expansion into the equity market.

If the price is right : vagueness and values clarification in contingent valuation

The use of willingness to pay to value the benefits of health care is increasing. Much of this work assumes that health preferences are well formed or complete and readily revealed if the right question is asked in the right way. We examined this assumption, seeking evidence in a mixed-methods study that explored the meaning and implications of vague responses to a payment-scale based willingness to pay exercise.

One-half of the sample said that their vagueness meant that their maximum willingness to pay was actually greater than the amount that they had previously said it was. Thirty percent agreed that they would probably pay £10 more than a sum that they had previously said they would most definitely not pay, if they found this to be the cost of the vaccine. Interview data supported the view that the payment scale had failed to elicit the maximum willingness to pay and that some participants used the information on cost to help clarify their values, in contrast to the theory underpinning willingness to pay. The results suggest a need to consider values-clarification in health economic evaluations. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Examination of environmental beliefs and its impact on the influence of price, quality and demographic characteristics with respect to green intention

Research indicates that the environment has had a definite impact on consumer behaviour whereby suggesting to target consumers according to their environmental beliefs. This study investigated the consumers' green purchase behaviour using price and quality attributes as contributors to the formation of purchase intention. It attempts to construct a model that may facilitate the better understanding of green consumers' market segments through the use of an intelligent soft computing model. The model is designed to incorporate knowledge, beliefs, demographic profiles and situational variables. This potentially provides a more direct method for companies to gauge consumers' intention to purchase green products. The results showed strong preference for companies to place higher priority on reducing pollution than on increasing profitability. It highlighted different clusters that demonstrate various levels of the strength of intention to purchase and market segment profiles.

Granger causality among house price and macroeconomic variables in Victoria

This study analyses the dynamic causality of four macroeconomic variables on house prices. The four macroeconomic variables have interrelationships with house prices in certain lagged terms, but these relationships are not always the same as the notions put forward in prior research. The relationships are detected to be unstable in the three observation periods. The instability of these relationships would cause difficulty in predicting house prices in the market, especially for policy makers and market participants.

Housing price diffusion pattern of Australia's state capital cities

The ripple effect of house prices within metropolitan areas has recently been recognised by researchers. However, it is very difficult to formulate and measure this effect using conventional house price theories particularly in consideration of the spatial locations of cities. Based on econometrics principles of the cointegration test and the error correction model, this research develops an innovative approach to quantitatively examine the diffusion patterns of house prices in mega-cities of a country. Taking Australia's eight capital cities as an example, the proposed approach is validated in terms of an empirical study. The results show that a 1-1-2-4 diffusion pattern exists within these cities. Sydney is on the top tier with Melbourne in the second; Perth and Adelaide are in the third level and the other four cities lie on the bottom. This research may be applied to predict the regional housing market behavior in a country.

Modelling oil price volatility

In this paper, we examine the volatility of crude oil price using daily data for the period 1991–2006. Our main innovation is that we examine volatility in various sub-samples in order to judge the robustness of our results. Our main findings can be summarised as follows: (1) across the various sub-samples, there is inconsistent evidence of asymmetry and persistence of shocks; and (2) over the full sample period, evidence suggests that shocks have permanent effects, and asymmetric effects, on volatility. These findings imply that the behaviour of oil prices tends to change over short periods of time.