Learning Bayesian networks in Semi-deterministic systems

In current constraint-based (Pearl-style) systems for discovering Bayesian networks, inputs with deterministic relations are prohibited. This restricts the applicability of these systems. In this paper, we formalize a sufficient condition under which Bayesian networks can be recovered even with deterministic relations. The sufficient condition leads to an improvement to Pearl’s IC algorithm; other constraint-based algorithms can be similarly improved. The new algorithm, assuming the sufficient condition proposed, is able to recover Bayesian networks with deterministic relations, and moreover suffers no loss of performance when applied to nondeterministic Bayesian networks.

Bayesian networks and decision trees in the diagnosis of female urinary incontinence

This study compares the effectiveness of Bayesian networks versus Decision Trees in modeling the Integral Theory of Female Urinary Incontinence diagnostic algorithm. Bayesian networks and Decision Trees were developed and trained using data from 58 adult women presenting with urinary incontinence symptoms. A Bayesian Network was developed in collaboration with an expert specialist who regularly utilizes a non-automated diagnostic algorithm in clinical practice. The original Bayesian network was later refined using a more connected approach. Diagnoses determined from all automated approaches were compared with the diagnoses of a single human expert. In most cases, Bayesian networks were found to be at least as accurate as the Decision Tree approach. The refined Connected Bayesian Network was found to be more accurate than the Original Bayesian Network accurately discriminated between diagnoses despite the small sample size. In contrast, the Connected and Decision Tree approaches were less able to discriminate between diagnoses. The Original Bayesian Network was found to provide an excellent basis for graphically communicating the correlation between symptoms and laxity defects in a given anatomical zone. Performance measures in both networks indicate that Bayesian networks could provide a potentially useful tool in the management of female pelvic floor dysfunction. Before the technique can be utilized in practice, well-established learning algorithms should be applied to improve network structure. A larger training data set should also improve network accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

Learning in networks of knowledge

 A conference on teaching and learning in tertiary education

An improved approach for the discovery of causal models via MML

Discovering a precise causal structure accurately reflecting the given data is one of the most essential tasks in the area of data mining and machine learning. One of the successful causal discovery approaches is the information-theoretic approach using the Minimum Message Length Principle[19]. This paper presents an improved and further experimental results of the MML discovery algorithm. We introduced a new encoding scheme for measuring the cost of describing the causal structure. Stiring function is also applied to further simplify the computational complexity and thus works more efficiently. The experimental results of the current version of the discovery system show that: (1) the current version is capable of discovering what discovered by previous system; (2) current system is capable of discovering more complicated causal models with large number of variables; (3) the new version works more efficiently compared with the previous version in terms of time complexity.

An examination on the performance of MML causal induction

This paper presents an examination report on the performance of the improved MML based causal model discovery algorithm. In this paper, We firstly describe our improvement to the causal discovery algorithm which introduces a new encoding scheme for measuring the cost of describing the causal structure. Stiring function is also applied to further simplify the computational complexity and thus works more efficiently. It is followed by a detailed examination report on the performance of our improved discovery algorithm. The experimental results of the current version of the discovery system show that: (l) the current version is capable of discovering what discovered by previous system; (2) current system is capable of discovering more complicated causal networks with large number of variables; (3) the new version works more efficiently compared with the previous version in terms of time complexity.

Evolutionary structure learning algorithm for Bayesian network and penalized mutual information metric

This paper formulates the problem of learning Bayesian network structures from data as determining the structure that best approximates the probability distribution indicated by the data. A new metric, Penalized Mutual Information metric, is proposed, and a evolutionary algorithm is designed to search for the best structure among alternatives. The experimental results show that this approach is reliable and promising.

Learning dependency model for AMP-activated protein kinase regulation

The AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) acts as a metabolic master switch regulating several intracellular systems. The effect of AMPK on muscle cellular energy status makes this protein a promising pharmacological target for disease treatment. With increasingly available AMPK regulation data, it is critical to develop an efficient way to analyze the data since this assists in further understanding AMPK pathways. Bayesian networks can play an important role in expressing the dependency and causality in the data. This paper aims to analyse the regulation data using B-Course, a powerful analysis tool to exploit several theoretically elaborate results in the fields of Bayesian and causal modelling, and discover a certain type of multivariate probabilistic dependencies. The identified dependency models are easier to understand in comparison with the traditional frequent patterns.

Case study of e-learning experts in Malaysia : impact of social capital and social networks

This paper examines the experiences of selected academics pioneering e-learning in Malaysian tertiary institutions. It begins with an overview of the broad factors shaping the Malaysian educational environment and then proceeds to examine the experience of individual teachers and e-learning programs. It takes an in-depth qualitative approach to engaging with this case study material drawing heavily on semi-structured interviews with key actors.
Conversations with several respondents suggested that the social networks of mentor relations found in the Malaysian case studies might be aptly described as ‘bamboo networks’. Bamboo, which happens to be plentiful in the Malaysian peninsula where these case studies are based, spreads from clump to clump through a series of underground connections involving a mature clump of bamboo sending out a subterranean runner, often over very long distances that then emerge into the open as a new bamboo clump.
All of those interviewed reported that they have found it difficult to find a support base in their first years of pioneering online developments. Consequently, they tended to fall back on their peer networks linked to the institutions at which they had studied. Prominent individuals championing e-learning in the institutions where they teach tend to form small groups for information sharing and networking. They do look to their management for tacit ‘permission’ rather than direct encouragement. Consequently, the active promotion of e-learning in Malaysia can be described as being ‘middle-down’ rather than ‘top-down’ in nature. That is to say, it is mid-level teachers that inspire those below them to join in the development of e-learning programs. They are internally driven and strongly motivated. In time, their activity should produce new generations of locally developed e-learning experts but this has yet to take place in a substantial fashion. This study shows that both men and women ‘academic guanxi’, or peer networks, play a key role in the adoption of online technologies. Key early adopters become change-agents by inspiring a small network of their peers and via their guanxi networks. It was also discovered that motivation is not simply an individual matter but is also about groups and peer networks or communities of exchange and encouragement. In the development of e-learning in Malaysia, there is very little activity that is not linked to small clusters of developers who are tied into wider networks through personal contacts.
Like clumping bamboo, whilst the local clusters tend to be easily seen, the longer-range ‘subterranean’ personal connections are generally not nearly so immediately obvious. These connections are often the product of previous mentoring relationships, including the relationships between influential teachers and their former postgraduate students. These relationships tend to work like bamboo runners: they run off in multiple directions, subterranean and unseen and then throw up new clumps that then send out fresh runners of their own.

A model for compressing probabilities in belief networks

Probabilistic reasoning with belief (Bayesian) networks is based on conditional probability matrices. Thus it suffers from NP-hard implementations. In particular, the amount of probabilistic information necessary for the computations is often overwhelming. So, compressing the conditional probability table is one of the most important issues faced by the probabilistic reasoning community. Santos suggested an approach (called linear potential functions) for compressing the information from a combinatorial amount to roughly linear in the number of random variable assignments. However, much of the information in Bayesian networks, in which there are no linear potential functions, would be fitted by polynomial approximating functions rather than by reluctantly linear functions. For this reason, we construct a polynomial method to compress the conditional probability table in this paper. We evaluated the proposed technique, and our experimental results demonstrate that the approach is efficient and promising.

Preference networks : probabilistic models for recommendation systems

Recommender systems are important to help users select relevant and personalised information over massive amounts of data available. We propose an unified framework called Preference Network (PN) that jointly models various types of domain knowledge for the task of recommendation. The PN is a probabilistic model that systematically combines both content-based filtering and collaborative filtering into a single conditional Markov random field. Once estimated, it serves as a probabilistic database that supports various useful queries such as rating prediction and top-N recommendation. To handle the challenging problem of learning large networks of users and items, we employ a simple but effective pseudo-likelihood with regularisation. Experiments on the movie rating data demonstrate the merits of the PN.

Supporting athlete selection and strategic planning in track cycling omnium: A statistical and machine learning approach

This article describes the implementation of machine learning techniques that assist cycling experts in the crucial decision-making processes for athlete selection and strategic planning in the track cycling omnium. The omnium is a multi-event competition that was included in the Olympic Games for the first time in 2012. Presently, selectors and cycling coaches make decisions based on experience and opinion. They rarely have access to knowledge that helps predict athletic performances. The omnium presents a unique and complex decision-making challenge as it is not clear what type of athlete is best suited to the omnium (e.g., sprint or endurance specialist) and tactical decisions made by the coach and athlete during the event will have significant effects on the overall performance of the athlete. In the present work, a variety of machine learning techniques were used to analyze omnium competition data from the World Championships since 2007. The analysis indicates that sprint events have slightly more influence in determining the medalists, than endurance-based events. Using a probabilistic analysis, we created a model of performance prediction that provides an unprecedented level of supporting information that assists coaches with strategic and tactical decisions during the omnium.

Preference Networks: probabilistic models for recommendation systems

Abstract
Recommender systems are important to help users select relevant and personalised information over massive amounts of data available. We propose an unified framework called Preference Network (PN) that jointly models various types of domain knowledge for the task of recommendation. The PN is a probabilistic model that systematically combines both content-based filtering and collaborative filtering into a single conditional
Markov random field. Once estimated, it serves as a probabilistic database that supports various useful queries such as rating prediction and top-N recommendation. To handle the challenging problem of learning large networks of users and items, we employ a simple but effective pseudo-likelihood with regularisation. Experiments on the movie rating data demonstrate the merits of the PN.