Financial time series analysis : Chaos and neurodynamics approach

This work aims at combining the Chaos theory postulates and Artificial Neural Networks classification and predictive capability, in the field of financial time series prediction. Chaos theory, provides valuable qualitative and quantitative tools to decide on the predictability of a chaotic system. Quantitative measurements based on Chaos theory, are used, to decide a-priori whether a time series, or a portion of a time series is predictable, while Chaos theory based qualitative tools are used to provide further observations and analysis on the predictability, in cases where measurements provide negative answers. Phase space reconstruction is achieved by time delay embedding resulting in multiple embedded vectors. The cognitive approach suggested, is inspired by the capability of some chartists to predict the direction of an index by looking at the price time series. Thus, in this work, the calculation of the embedding dimension and the separation, in Takens‘ embedding theorem for phase space reconstruction, is not limited to False Nearest Neighbor, Differential Entropy or other specific method, rather, this work is interested in all embedding dimensions and separations that are regarded as different ways of looking at a time series by different chartists, based on their expectations. Prior to the prediction, the embedded vectors of the phase space are classified with Fuzzy-ART, then, for each class a back propagation Neural Network is trained to predict the last element of each vector, whereas all previous elements of a vector are used as features.

Essays on growth and environment

This thesis consists of a summary and four self-contained papers. Paper [I] Following the 1987 report by The World Commission on Environment and Development, the genuine saving has come to play a key role in the context of sustainable development, and the World Bank regularly publishes numbers for genuine saving on a national basis. However, these numbers are typically calculated as if the tax system is non-distortionary. This paper presents an analogue to genuine saving in a second best economy, where the government raises revenue by means of distortionary taxation. We show how the social cost of public debt, which depends on the marginal excess burden, ought to be reflected in the genuine saving. We also illustrate by presenting calculations for Greece, Japan, Portugal, U.K., U.S. and OECD average, showing that the numbers published by the World Bank are likely to be biased and may even give incorrect information as to whether the economy is locally sustainable. Paper [II] This paper examines the relationships among per capita CO2 emissions, per capita GDP and international trade based on panel data spanning the period 1960-2008 for 150 countries. A distinction is also made between OECD and Non-OECD countries to capture the differences of this relationship between developed and developing economies. We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests, and estimate a panel error correction model. The results from the error correction model suggest that there are long-term relationships between the variables for the whole sample and for Non-OECD countries. Finally, Granger causality tests show that there is bi-directional short-term causality between per capita GDP and international trade for the whole sample and between per capita GDP and CO2 emissions for OECD countries. Paper [III] Fundamental questions in economics are why some regions are richer than others, why their growth rates differ, whether their growth rates tend to converge, and what key factors contribute to explain economic growth. This paper deals with the average income growth, net migration, and changes in unemployment rates at the municipal level in Sweden. The aim is to explore in depth the effects of possible underlying determinants with a particular focus on local policy variables. The analysis is based on a three-equation model. Our results show, among other things, that increases in the local public expenditure and income taxe rate have negative effects on subsequent income income growth. In addition, the results show conditional convergence, i.e. that the average income among the municipal residents tends to grow more rapidly in relatively poor local jurisdictions than in initially “richer” jurisdictions, conditional on the other explanatory variables. Paper [IV] This paper explores the relationship between income growth and income inequality using data at the municipal level in Sweden for the period 1992-2007. We estimate a fixed effects panel data growth model, where the within-municipality income inequality is one of the explanatory variables. Different inequality measures (Gini coefficient, top income shares, and measures of inequality in the lower and upper part of the income distribution) are examined. We find a positive and significant relationship between income growth and income inequality measured as the Gini coefficient and top income shares, respectively. In addition, while inequality in the upper part of the income distribution is positively associated with the income growth rate, inequality in the lower part of the income distribution seems to be negatively related to the income growth. Our findings also suggest that increased income inequality enhances growth more in municipalities with a high level of average income than in municipalities with a low level of average income.

Gender Equality a case study of Sweden : Gender Equality Gender Equity and policies of combating inequality at workplace to make the society equal.

The paper analyses Gender Equality, Gender Equity and policies of combating inequality at workplace to make the society equal as a case study of Sweden. The aim of paper is see the gender equality, gender equity, discrimination against women at workplace and to describe the policies combating inequality in the welfare state of Sweden. This work highlights the gender equality in terms of institutionalizing gender equality, gender equity, gender and pay gap, parental leave, gender and the pension system and sexual behavior directed towards women and policies combating inequality to bring equality in society. For my research I used the secondary data the fact sheets, scientific literature, statistics from eurostate of Sweden and case studies about Swedish society and the theoretical explanation to explain the phenomena. To achieve my aim I used the combination of both qualitative and quantitative methods of research. I showed the empirical evidences of these phenomena from the Swedish society and theoretical analysis about equality and equity of gender in different wakes of life. I found an interesting conclusion that there are good policies and legislation to combat inequality to bring society but there are no policies to change the perception of society about male and female role.

Patient participation : what it is and what it is not

In general, patient participation is regarded as being informed and partaking in decision making regarding one’s care and treatment. This interpretation is common in legislation throughout the Western world and corresponding documents guiding health care professionals, as well as in scientific studies. Even though this understanding of the word participation can be traced to a growing emphasis on individuals’ autonomy in society and to certain dictionary defi nitions, there are other ways of understanding participation from a semantic point of view, and no trace of patients’ descriptions of what it is to participate can be found in these definitions. Hence, the aim of this dissertation was to understand patients’ experience of the phenomenon of patient participation. An additional aim was to understand patients’ experience of non-participation and to describe the conditions for patient participation and non-participation, in order to understand the prerequisites for patient participation. The dissertation comprises four papers. The philosophical ideas of Ricoeur provided a basis for the studies: how communication can present ways to understand and explain experiences of phenomena through phenomenological hermeneutics. The first and second studies involved a group of patients living with chronic heart failure. For the fi rst study, 10 patients were interviewed, with a narrative approach, about their experience of participation and non-participation, as defi ned by the participants. For the second study, 11 visits by three patients at a nurse-led outpatient clinic were observed, and consecutive interviews were performed with the patients and the nurses, investigating what they experience as patient participation and non-participation. A triangulation of data was performed to analyse the occurrence of the phenomena in the observed visits. For paper 3 and 4, a questionnaire was developed and distributed among a diverse group of people who had recent experience of being patients. The questionnaire comprised respondent’s description of what patient participation is, using items based on findings in Study 1, along with open-ended questions for additional aspects and general issues regarding situations in which the respondent had experienced patient participation and/or non-participation. The findings show additional aspects to patient participation: patient participation is being provided with information and knowledge in order for one to comprehend one’s body, disease, and treatment and to be able to take self-care actions based on the context and one’s values. Participation was also found to include providing the information and knowledge one has about the experience of illness and symptoms and of one’s situation. Participation occurs when being listened to and being recognised as an individual and a partner in the health care team. Non-participation, on the other hand, occurs when one is regarded as a symptom, a problem to be solved. To avoid non-participation, the information provided needs to be based on the individual’s need and with recognition of the patient’s knowledge and context. In conclusion, patient participation needs to be reconsidered in health care regulations and in clinical settings: patients’ defi nitions of participation, found to be close to the dictionaries’ description of sharing, should be recognised and opportunities provided for sharing knowledge and experience in two-way-communication.

Movies and meaning : studying audience, fiction film and existential matters

In what ways and under what circumstances can a movie be a resource for individuals and their thoughts about existential matters? This central research question has been investigated using a both quantitative and qualitative approach. First, a questionnaire was distributed amongst 179 Swedish students to provide a preliminary overview of film habits. The questionnaire was also used as a tool for selecting respondents to individual interviews. Second, focus group and individual interviews were conducted, with viewers choosing their favourite movie of all time. In the study socio-cognitive theory and a schema-based theoretical tool is adopted to analyze how different viewers make use of movies as cultural products in an interplay between culture and cognition in three contexts; a socio-historic process, a socio-cultural interaction with the world and inner psychological processes. The viewers in the study seem to be inspired by movies as a mediated cultural resource, promoting the development of a personal moral framework with references to values deeply fostered by a humanistic tradition. It is argued that these findings support theories discussing individualised meaning making, developing ‘self-expression values’ and ‘altruistic individualism’ in contemporary western society.