Predictive models for chronic renal disease using decision trees, naïve bayes and case-based methods

Data mining can be used in healthcare industry to “mine” clinical data to discover hidden information for intelligent and affective decision making. Discovery of hidden patterns and relationships often goes intact, yet advanced data mining techniques can be helpful as remedy to this scenario. This thesis mainly deals with Intelligent Prediction of Chronic Renal Disease (IPCRD). Data covers blood, urine test, and external symptoms applied to predict chronic renal disease. Data from the database is initially transformed to Weka (3.6) and Chi-Square method is used for features section. After normalizing data, three classifiers were applied and efficiency of output is evaluated. Mainly, three classifiers are analyzed: Decision Tree, Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbour algorithm. Results show that each technique has its unique strength in realizing the objectives of the defined mining goals. Efficiency of Decision Tree and KNN was almost same but Naïve Bayes proved a comparative edge over others. Further sensitivity and specificity tests are used as statistical measures to examine the performance of a binary classification. Sensitivity (also called recall rate in some fields) measures the proportion of actual positives which are correctly identified while Specificity measures the proportion of negatives which are correctly identified. CRISP-DM methodology is applied to build the mining models. It consists of six major phases: business understanding, data understanding, data preparation, modeling, evaluation, and deployment.

Likelihood prediction for generalized linear mixed models under covariate uncertainty

This paper presents the techniques of likelihood prediction for the generalized linear mixed models. Methods of likelihood prediction is explained through a series of examples; from a classical one to more complicated ones. The examples show, in simple cases, that the likelihood prediction (LP) coincides with already known best frequentist practice such as the best linear unbiased predictor. The paper outlines a way to deal with the covariate uncertainty while producing predictive inference. Using a Poisson error-in-variable generalized linear model, it has been shown that in complicated cases LP produces better results than already know methods.