Modeling and forecasting long-term natural gas (NG) consumption in Iran, using particle swarm optimization (PSO)

The gradual changes in the world development have brought energy issues back into high profile. An ongoing challenge for countries around the world is to balance the development gains against its effects on the environment. The energy management is the key factor of any sustainable development program. All the aspects of development in agriculture, power generation, social welfare and industry in Iran are crucially related to the energy and its revenue. Forecasting end-use natural gas consumption is an important Factor for efficient system operation and a basis for planning decisions. In this thesis, particle swarm optimization (PSO) used to forecast long run natural gas consumption in Iran. Gas consumption data in Iran for the previous 34 years is used to predict the consumption for the coming years. Four linear and nonlinear models proposed and six factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Population, National Income (NI), Temperature, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and yearly Natural Gas (NG) demand investigated.

The impact of foreign direct investment and openness on Vietnamese economy

This thesis examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on Vietnamese economy based on Partial Adjustment Model and time series data from 1976 to 2004. FDI is shown to have not only short run but also long run effect on gross domestic product (GDP) of Vietnam. However, elasticity of GDP with respect to FDI is small and it will take many years to fully manifest itself. The impact of trade openness on GDP has also been examined and it is shown to be stronger than that of FDI. The paper offers a number of explanations and discusses briefly suggestions in order to increase the contribution of FDI to Vietnam’s economic development.

Trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations: Evidence from Sweden

An overview of the theoretical literature for the last two decades suggests that there is no clear-cut relationship one can pin down between exchange rate volatility and trade flows. Analytical results are based on specific assumptions and only hold in certain cases. Especially, the impact of exchange rate volatility on export and import activity investigated separately leads also to dissimilar conclusions among countries studied. The general presumption is that an increase in exchange rate volatility will have an adverse effect on trade flows and consequently, the overall heath of the world economy. However, neither theoretical models nor empirical studies provide us with a definitive answer, leaving obtained results highly ambiguous and inconsistent (Baum and Caglayan, 2006). We purposed to empirically investigate trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations in Sweden from the perspective of export and import in this research. The data comprises period from January 1993 to December 2006, where export and import volumes are considered from the point of their determinants, including exchange rate volatility, which has been measured through EGARCH model. The results for the case of Sweden show that short run dynamics of volatility negatively associated with both export and import, whereas considered from the case of previous period volatility it exhibits positive relationship. These results are consistent with the most findings of prior studies, where the relationship remained ambiguous.

How to avoid Copenhagen : An experimental economic approach to climate negotiations

This study got its origin in the failed climate negotiations in the Copenhagen 2009 summit. By conducting a public good game, with participants from China and Sweden, my study indicates that previous studies on public good games can predict the outcome of the game to a quit large extent even though most of my statistical tests came out statistically insignificant. My study also indicates that by framing the game as climate negotiations there were no statistical significant difference on the level of contributions in comparison to the unframed versions of the game. The awareness of the issues with emissions, global warming and other environmental problems are pretty high but even so when push comes to shove gains in the short run are prioritized to gains in the long run. There are however hypothetical willingness to come to term with the environmental issues. The results of the study indicate that the outcome of the Copenhagen summit can be avoidable but would need additional experiments made on cultural differences and behavior.

Understanding Foreign Masters : the examples of Rabindranath Tagore and Fyodor Dostoyevskiy

The Indian author Rabindranath Tagore was received like royalty during his visits to the West after winning the Nobel Prize in 1913. Dreams of foreign cultures offered a retreat from a complicated age. In a time when the West appeared to be living under threat of disintegration and when industrialism seemed like a cul-de-sac, he appeared to offer the promise of a return to a lost paradise, a spiritual abode that is superior to the restless Western culture. However, Tagore’s popularity faded rapidly, most notably in England, the main target of his criticism. Soon after Tagore had won the Nobel Prize, the English became indignant at Tagore’s anti-colonial attitude.Tagore visited Sweden in 1921 and 1926 and was given a warm reception. His visits to Sweden can be seen as an episode in a longer chain of events. It brought to life old conceptions of India as the abode of spirituality on earth. Nevertheless, interest in him was a relatively short-lived phenomenon in Sweden. Only a few of his admirers in Sweden appreciated the complexity of Tagore’s achievements. His “anathema of mammonism”, as a Swedish newspaper called it, was not properly received. After a steady stream of translations his popularity flagged towards the end of the 1920s and then almost disappeared entirely. Tagores visits in Sweden gave an indication that India was on the way to liberate itself from its colonial legacy, which consequently contributed to the waning of his popularity in the West. In the long run, his criticism of the drawbacks in the western world became too obvious to maintain permanent interest. The Russian author Fyodor Dostoyevskiy’s Crime and Punishment (1866) has enticed numerous interpretations such as the purely biographical approach. In the nervous main character of the novel, the young student Raskolnikov, one easily recognizes Dostoyevskiy himself. The novel can also be seen as a masterpiece of realistic fiction. It gives a broad picture of Saint Petersburg, a metropolis in decay. Crime and Punishment can also be seen as one of the first examples of a modern psychological novel, since it is focused on the inner drama of its main character, the young student Raskolnikov. His actions seem to be governed by mere coincidences, dreams and the spur of the moment. it seems fruitful to study the novel from a psychoanalytical approach. In his book Raskolnikov: the way of the divided towards unity in Crime and Punishment (1982), a Swedish scholar, Owe Wikström, has followed this line of interpretation all the way to Freud’s disciple C G Jung. In addition to this, the novel functions as an exciting crime story. To a large extent it is Viktor Sjklovskij and other Russian formalists from the 1920s and onwards who have taught the western audience to understand the specific nature of the crime story. The novel could be seen as a story about religious conversion. Like Lasarus in the Bible (whose story attracts a lot of attention in the novel) Raskolnikov is awakened from the dead, and together with Sonja he starts a completely new life. The theme of conversion has a special meaning for Dostoyevskiy. For him the conversion meant an acknowledgement of the specific nature of Russia itself. Crime and punishment mirrors the conflict between traditional Russian values and western influences that has been obvious in Russia throughout the history of the country. The novel reflects a dialogue that still continues in Russian society. The Russian literary historian Mikhail Bakhtin, who is probably the most famous interpreter of the works of Dostoyevskiy, has become famous precisely by emphasizing the importance of dialogues in novels like Crime and Punishment. According to Bakhtin, this novel is characterized by its multitude of voices. Various ideas are confronted with each other, and each one of them is personified by one of the characters in the novel. The author has resigned from his position as the superior monitor of the text, and he leaves it to the reader to decide what interpretation is the correct one..The aim of the present study is thus to analyze the complex reactions in the west to Tagore’s visits in Sweden and to Fyodor Dostoyevskiys novel Crime and Punishment.. This leads to more general conclusions on communication between cultures.

Conceptual Product Development in Small Corporations

The main objective of the thesis “Conceptual Product Development in Small Corporations” is by the use of a case study test the MFD™-method (Erixon G. , 1998) combined with PMM in a product development project. (Henceforth called MFD™/PMM-method). The MFD™/PMM-method used for documenting and controlling a product development project has since it was introduced been used in several industries and projects. The method has been proved to be a good way of working with the early stages of product development, however, there are almost only projects carried out on large industries which means that there are very few references to how the MFD™/PMM-method works in a small corporation. Therefore, was the case study in the thesis “Conceptual Product Development in Small Corporations” carried out in a small corporation to find out whether the MFD™/PMM-method also can be applied and used in such a corporation.The PMM was proposed in a paper presented at Delft University of Technology in Holland 1998 by the author and Gunnar Erixon. (See appended paper C: The chart of modular function deployment.) The title “The chart of modular function deployment” was later renamed as PMM, Product Management Map. (Sweden PreCAD AB, 2000). The PMM consists of a QFD-matrix linked to MIM (Module Indication Matrix) via a coupling matrix which makes it possible to make an unbroken chain from the customer domain to the designed product/modules. The PMM makes it easy to correct omissions made in creating new products and modules.In the thesis “Conceptual Product Development in Small Corporations” the universal MFD™/PMM-method has been adapted by the author to three models of product development; original-, evolutionary- and incremental development.The evolutionary adapted MFD™/PMM-method was tested as a case study at Atlings AB in the community Ockelbo. Atlings AB is a small corporation with a total number of 50 employees and an annual turnover of 9 million €. The product studied at the corporation was a steady rest for supporting long shafts in turning. The project team consisted of management director, a sales promoter, a production engineer, a design engineer and a workshop technician, the author as team leader and a colleague from Dalarna University as discussion partner. The project team has had six meetings.The project team managed to use MFD™ and to make a complete PMM of the studied product. There were no real problems occurring in the project work, on the contrary the team members worked very well in the group, having ideas how to improve the product. Instead, the challenge for a small company is how to work with the MFD™/PMM-method in the long run! If the MFD™/PMM-method is to be a useful tool for the company it needs to be used continuously and that requires financial and personnel resources. One way for the company to overcome the probable lack of recourses regarding capital and personnel is to establish a good cooperation with a regional university or a development centre.

Price elasticity of demand for cigarettes : The Case of Sweden

Due to health problems and the negative externalities associated with cigarette consumption, many governments try to discourage cigarette consumption by increasing its price through taxation. However, cigarette, like the other addictive goods, is viewed as that it is not sensitive to demand rules and the market forces. This study analyses the effect of price increase on cigarette consumption. We used Swedish time series data from 1970 to 2010. Our results reveal that though cigarette is addictive substance its demand is sensitive to changes in the price. Estimates from this study indicate short-run price-elasticity of -0.29 and the long run price elasticity of -0.47.

Factors influencing tourism sustainability : The case of the World Heritage Falun Great Copper Mountain

This thesis focuses on identifying hindrances of achieving a sustainable tourism development on a base of a World Heritage Site. Using a case study of the World Heritage Site Falun Great Copper Mountain, the thesis assesses the situational context by using qualitative methods. Five semi- structured interviews with influential stakeholders were conducted to get an inside view of the current situation and to identify site-specific issues. The thesis identifies a number of factors that determine the successful implementation of measures leading towards sustainable tourism in the long-run; the most important being the lack of clear guidelines for the whole destination and no holistic planning approach within the municipality. The thesis concludes that despite the increased pressures towards establishment of sustainable tourism, the concept remains challenging to operationalize for the World Heritage Site without frameworks and tools from UNESCO.

An analysis of linkage between foreign direct investment and GDP per Capita in Pakistan : A time series analysis

This study aims to investigate the relation between foreign direct investment (FDI) and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in Pakistan. The study is based on a basic Cobb-Douglas production function. Population over age 15 to 64 is used as a proxy for labor in the investigation. The other variables used are gross capital formation, technological gap and a dummy variable measuring among other things political stability. We find positive correlation between GDP per capita in Pakistan and two variables, FDI and population over age 15 to 64. The GDP gap (gap between GDP of USA and GDP of Pakistan) is negatively correlated with GDP per capita as expected. Political instability, economic crisis, wars and polarization in the society have no significant impact on GDP per capita in the long run.

Arbetslöshet som en icke önskvärd konsekvens av socialbidrag : Resultat från en tidsserieanalys på befolkningsnivå i Sverige 1946–1990

Unemployment as an unintended consequence of social assistance recipiency: results from a time-series analysis of aggregated population data Does the frequency of unemployment have a tendency to increase the number of social assistance recipients, or does the relationship work the other way around? This article utilizes Swedish annual data on aggregated unemployment and means-tested social assistance recipiency in the period 1946–1990 and proposes a multiple time-series approach based on vector error-correction modelling to establish the direction of influence. First, we show that rates of unemployment and receipt of social assistance is co-integrated. Second, we demonstrate that adjustments to the long-run equilibrium are made through adjustments of the unemployment. This indicates that the level of unemployment reacts to changes in rates of social assistance recipiency rather than vice versa. It is also shown that lagged changes in the level of unemployment do not predict changes in rates of social assistance recipients in short-term. Together these findings demonstrate that the number of social assistance recipients does increase the number of unemployed in a period characterized by low unemployment and high employment.