Passive crosslaminated timber buildings : Final report Cerbof-project no. 76

In this project, Stora Enso’s newly developed building system has been further developed to allow building to the Swedish passive house standard for the Swedish climate. The building system is based on a building framework of CLT (Cross laminated timber) boards. The concept has been tested on a small test building. The experience gained from this test building has also been used for planning a larger building (two storeys with the option of a third storey) with passive house standard with this building system. The main conclusions from the project are:  It is possible to build airtight buildings with this technique without using traditional vapour barriers. Initial measurements show that this can be done without reaching critical humidity levels in the walls and roof, at least where wood fibre insulation is used, as this has a greater capacity for storing and evening out the moisture than mineral wool. However, the test building has so far not been exposed to internal generation of moisture (added moisture from showers, food preparation etc.). This needs to be investigated and this will be done during the winter 2013-14.  A new fixing method for doors and windows has been tested without traditional fibre filling between them and the CLT panel. The door or window is pressed directly on to the CLT panel instead, with an expandable sealing strip between them. This has been proved to be successful.  The air tightness between the CLT panels is achieved with expandable sealing strips between the panels. The position of the sealing strips is important, both for the air tightness itself and to allow rational assembly.  Recurrent air tightness measurements show that the air tightness decreased somewhat during the first six months, but not to such an extent that the passive house criteria were not fulfilled. The reason for the decreased air tightness is not clear, but can be due to small movements in the CLT construction and also to the sealing strips being affected by changing outdoor temperatures.  Long term measurements (at least two years) have to be carried out before more reliable conclusions can be drawn regarding the long term effect of the construction on air tightness and humidity in the walls.  An economic analysis comparing using a concrete frame or the studied CLT frame for a three storey building shows that it is probably more expensive to build with CLT. For buildings higher than three floors, the CLT frame has economic advantages, mainly because of the shorter building time compared to using concrete for the frame. In this analysis, no considerations have been taken to differences in the influence on the environment or the global climate between the two construction methods.

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassifi cation. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5–2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6–40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7–1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1–1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued eff orts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.