What factors affect the destination choice of Jordanian tourists?A panel data analysis

This paper investigates what factors affect the destination choice for Jordanian to 8 countries (Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt, Lebanon and Bahrain) using panel data analysis. Number of outbound tourists is represented as dependent variable, which is regressed over five explanatory variables using fixed effect model. The finding of this paper is that tourists from Jordan have weak demand for outbound tourism; Jordanian decision of traveling abroad is determined by the cost of traveling to different places and choosing the cheapest alternative.

Big Data Analysis in Social Networks : Extracting Food Preferences of Vegans from Twitter

Market research is often conducted through conventional methods such as surveys, focus groups and interviews. But the drawbacks of these methods are that they can be costly and timeconsuming. This study develops a new method, based on a combination of standard techniques like sentiment analysis and normalisation, to conduct market research in a manner that is free and quick. The method can be used in many application-areas, but this study focuses mainly on the veganism market to identify vegan food preferences in the form of a profile. Several food words are identified, along with their distribution between positive and negative sentiments in the profile. Surprisingly, non-vegan foods such as cheese, cake, milk, pizza and chicken dominate the profile, indicating that there is a significant market for vegan-suitable alternatives for such foods. Meanwhile, vegan-suitable foods such as coconut, potato, blueberries, kale and tofu also make strong appearances in the profile. Validation is performed by using the method on Volkswagen vehicle data to identify positive and negative sentiment across five car models. Some results were found to be consistent with sales figures and expert reviews, while others were inconsistent. The reliability of the method is therefore questionable, so the results should be used with caution.

Increasing the power of genome wide association studies in natural populations using repeated measures : evaluation and implementation

1. Genomewide association studies (GWAS) enable detailed dissections of the genetic basis for organisms' ability to adapt to a changing environment. In long-term studies of natural populations, individuals are often marked at one point in their life and then repeatedly recaptured. It is therefore essential that a method for GWAS includes the process of repeated sampling. In a GWAS, the effects of thousands of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) need to be fitted and any model development is constrained by the computational requirements. A method is therefore required that can fit a highly hierarchical model and at the same time is computationally fast enough to be useful. 2. Our method fits fixed SNP effects in a linear mixed model that can include both random polygenic effects and permanent environmental effects. In this way, the model can correct for population structure and model repeated measures. The covariance structure of the linear mixed model is first estimated and subsequently used in a generalized least squares setting to fit the SNP effects. The method was evaluated in a simulation study based on observed genotypes from a long-term study of collared flycatchers in Sweden. 3. The method we present here was successful in estimating permanent environmental effects from simulated repeated measures data. Additionally, we found that especially for variable phenotypes having large variation between years, the repeated measurements model has a substantial increase in power compared to a model using average phenotypes as a response. 4. The method is available in the R package RepeatABEL. It increases the power in GWAS having repeated measures, especially for long-term studies of natural populations, and the R implementation is expected to facilitate modelling of longitudinal data for studies of both animal and human populations.

Financial time series analysis : Chaos and neurodynamics approach

This work aims at combining the Chaos theory postulates and Artificial Neural Networks classification and predictive capability, in the field of financial time series prediction. Chaos theory, provides valuable qualitative and quantitative tools to decide on the predictability of a chaotic system. Quantitative measurements based on Chaos theory, are used, to decide a-priori whether a time series, or a portion of a time series is predictable, while Chaos theory based qualitative tools are used to provide further observations and analysis on the predictability, in cases where measurements provide negative answers. Phase space reconstruction is achieved by time delay embedding resulting in multiple embedded vectors. The cognitive approach suggested, is inspired by the capability of some chartists to predict the direction of an index by looking at the price time series. Thus, in this work, the calculation of the embedding dimension and the separation, in Takens‘ embedding theorem for phase space reconstruction, is not limited to False Nearest Neighbor, Differential Entropy or other specific method, rather, this work is interested in all embedding dimensions and separations that are regarded as different ways of looking at a time series by different chartists, based on their expectations. Prior to the prediction, the embedded vectors of the phase space are classified with Fuzzy-ART, then, for each class a back propagation Neural Network is trained to predict the last element of each vector, whereas all previous elements of a vector are used as features.

Discrepancies in solar irradiation data for Stockholm and Athens

The aim of this study is to evaluate the variation of solar radiation data between different data sources that will be free and available at the Solar Energy Research Center (SERC). The comparison between data sources will be carried out for two locations: Stockholm, Sweden and Athens, Greece. For the desired locations, data is gathered for different tilt angles: 0°, 30°, 45°, 60° facing south. The full dataset is available in two excel files: “Stockholm annual irradiation” and “Athens annual irradiation”. The World Radiation Data Center (WRDC) is defined as a reference for the comparison with other dtaasets, because it has the highest time span recorded for Stockholm (1964–2010) and Athens (1964–1986), in form of average monthly irradiation, expressed in kWh/m2. The indicator defined for the data comparison is the estimated standard deviation. The mean biased error (MBE) and the root mean square error (RMSE) were also used as statistical indicators for the horizontal solar irradiation data. The variation in solar irradiation data is categorized in two categories: natural or inter-annual variability, due to different data sources and lastly due to different calculation models. The inter-annual variation for Stockholm is 140.4kWh/m2 or 14.4% and 124.3kWh/m2 or 8.0% for Athens. The estimated deviation for horizontal solar irradiation is 3.7% for Stockholm and 4.4% Athens. This estimated deviation is respectively equal to 4.5% and 3.6% for Stockholm and Athens at 30° tilt, 5.2% and 4.5% at 45° tilt, 5.9% and 7.0% at 60°. NASA’s SSE, SAM and RETScreen (respectively Satel-light) exhibited the highest deviation from WRDC’s data for Stockholm (respectively Athens). The essential source for variation is notably the difference in horizontal solar irradiation. The variation increases by 1-2% per degree of tilt, using different calculation models, as used in PVSYST and Meteonorm. The location and altitude of the data source did not directly influence the variation with the WRDC data. Further examination is suggested in order to improve the methodology of selecting the location; Examining the functional dependence of ground reflected radiation with ambient temperature; variation of ambient temperature and its impact on different solar energy systems; Im pact of variation in solar irradiation and ambient temperature on system output.

Health system context and implementation of evidence-based practices-development and validation of the Context Assessment for Community Health (COACH) tool for low- and middle-income settings

Background: The gap between what is known and what is practiced results in health service users not benefitting from advances in healthcare, and in unnecessary costs. A supportive context is considered a key element for successful implementation of evidence-based practices (EBP). There were no tools available for the systematic mapping of aspects of organizational context influencing the implementation of EBPs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Thus, this project aimed to develop and psychometrically validate a tool for this purpose. Methods: The development of the Context Assessment for Community Health (COACH) tool was premised on the context dimension in the Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services framework, and is a derivative product of the Alberta Context Tool. Its development was undertaken in Bangladesh, Vietnam, Uganda, South Africa and Nicaragua in six phases: (1) defining dimensions and draft tool development, (2) content validity amongst in-country expert panels, (3) content validity amongst international experts, (4) response process validity, (5) translation and (6) evaluation of psychometric properties amongst 690 health workers in the five countries. Results: The tool was validated for use amongst physicians, nurse/midwives and community health workers. The six phases of development resulted in a good fit between the theoretical dimensions of the COACH tool and its psychometric properties. The tool has 49 items measuring eight aspects of context: Resources, Community engagement, Commitment to work, Informal payment, Leadership, Work culture, Monitoring services for action and Sources of knowledge. Conclusions: Aspects of organizational context that were identified as influencing the implementation of EBPs in high-income settings were also found to be relevant in LMICs. However, there were additional aspects of context of relevance in LMICs specifically Resources, Community engagement, Commitment to work and Informal payment. Use of the COACH tool will allow for systematic description of the local healthcare context prior implementing healthcare interventions to allow for tailoring implementation strategies or as part of the evaluation of implementing healthcare interventions and thus allow for deeper insights into the process of implementing EBPs in LMICs.