Daily Calls Volume Forecasting

A massive amount has been written about forecasting but few articles are written about the development of time series models of call volumes for emergency services. In this study, we use different techniques for forecasting and make the comparison of the techniques for the call volume of the emergency service Rescue 1122 Lahore, Pakistan. For the purpose of this study data is taken from emergency calls of Rescue 1122 from 1st January 2008 to 31 December 2009 and 731 observations are used. Our goal is to develop a simple model that could be used for forecasting the daily call volume. Two different approaches are used for forecasting the daily call volume Box and Jenkins (ARIMA) methodology and Smoothing methodology. We generate the models for forecasting of call volume and present a comparison of the two different techniques.

Modeling precipitation and its effect on recrystallization during hot strip rolling of niobium steels

Using a physically based model, the microstructural evolution of Nb microalloyed steels during rolling in SSAB Tunnplåt’s hot strip mill was modeled. The model describes the evolution of dislocation density, the creation and diffusion of vacancies, dynamic and static recovery through climb and glide, subgrain formation and growth, dynamic and static recrystallization and grain growth. Also, the model describes the dissolution and precipitation of particles. The impeding effect on grain growth and recrystallization due to solute drag and particles is accounted for. During hot strip rolling of Nb steels, Nb in solid solution retards recrystallization due to solute drag and at lower temperatures strain-induced precipitation of Nb(C,N) may occur which effectively retard recrystallization. The flow stress behavior during hot rolling was calculated where the mean flow stress values were calculated using both the model and measured mill data. The model showed that solute drag has an essential effect on recrystallization during hot rolling of Nb steels.

A computer study of the improvement of PV panel monthly outputs when the panel azimuth is changed thrice daily

The purpose of the calculations was to estimate the most suitable slopes and azimuths for three different positions per day of a solar panel in order to obtain the most possible energy from the PV panel compared with a stationary PV panel. The calculations were made in the computer program PV F-CHART.

Homogenization of Precipitation Hardening Nickel Based Superalloys

Allvac 718 Plus and Haynes 282 are relatively new precipitation hardening nickel based superalloys with good high temperature mechanical properties. In addition, the weldability of these superalloys enhances easy fabrication. The combination of high temperature capabilities and superior weldability is unmatched by other precipitation hardening superalloys and linked to the amount of the γ’ hardening precipitates in the materials. Hence, it is these properties that make Allvac 718 Plus and Haynes 282 desirable in the manufacture of hot sections of aero engine components. Studies show that cast products are less weldable than wrought products. Segregation of elements in the cast results in inhomogeneous composition which consequently diminishes weldability. Segregation during solidification of the cast products results in dendritic microstructure with the segregating elements occupying interdendritic regions. These segregating elements are trapped in secondary phases present alongside γ matrix. Studies show that in Allvac 718Plus, the segregating phase is Laves while in Haynes 282 the segregating phase is not yet fully determined. Thus, the present study investigated the effects of homogenization heat treatments in eliminating segregation in cast Allvac 718 Plus and Haynes 282. Paramount to the study was the effect of different homogenization temperatures and dwell time in the removal of the segregating phases. Experimental methods used to both qualify and quantify the segregating phases included SEM, EDX analysis, manual point count and macro Vickers hardness tests. Main results show that there is a reduction in the segregating phases in both materials as homogenization proceeds hence a disappearance of the dendritic structure. In Allvac 718 Plus, plate like structures is observed to be closely associated with the Laves phase at low temperatures and dwell times. In addition, Nb is found to be segregating in the interdendritic areas. The expected trend of increase in Laves as a result of the dissolution of the plate like structures at the initial stage of homogenization is only detectable for few cases. In Haynes 282, white and grey phases are clearly distinguished and Mo is observed to be segregating in interdendritic areas.

Struggling with daily life and enduring pain : a qualitative study of women's experiences with pelvic girdle pain during pregnancy

Background. Few studies have investigated the experiences of living with pelvic girdle pain (PGP) and its impact on pregnant women’s lives. To address this gap in knowledge, this study investigates the experiences of women living with PGP during pregnancy. Methods. A purposive sample, of nine pregnant women with diagnosed PGP, were interviewed about their experiences. Interviews were recorded, transcribed to text and analysed using a Grounded Theory approach. Results. The core category that evolved from the analysis of experiences of living with PGP in pregnancy was “struggling with daily life and enduring pain”. Three properties addressing the actions caused by PGP were identified: i) grasping the incomprehensible; ii) balancing support and dependence and iii) managing the losses. These experiences expressed by the informants constitute a basis for the consequences of PGP: iv) enduring pain; v) being a burden; vi) calculating the risks and the experiences of the informants as vii) abdicating as a mother. Finally, the informants’ experiences of the consequences regarding the current pregnancy and any potential future pregnancies is presented in viii) paying the price and reconsidering the future. A conceptual model of the actions and consequences experienced by the pregnant informants living with PGP is presented. Conclusions. PGP during pregnancy greatly affects the informant’s experiences of her pregnancy, her roles in relationships, and her social context. For informants with young children, PGP negatively affects the role of being a mother, a situation that further strains the experience. As the constant pain disturbs most aspects of the lives of the informants, improvements in the treatment of PGP is of importance as to increase the quality of life. This pregnancy-related condition is prevalent and must be considered a major public health concern during pregnancy.

The discourses on induced abortion in Ugandan daily newspapers : a discourse analysis

Background: Ugandan law prohibits abortion under all circumstances except where there is a risk for the woman's life. However, it has been estimated that over 250 000 illegal abortions are being performed in the country yearly. Many of these abortions are carried out under unsafe conditions, being one of the most common reasons behind the nearly 5000 maternal deaths per year in Uganda. Little research has been conducted in relation to societal views on abortion within the Ugandan society. This study aims to analyze the discourse on abortion as expressed in the two main daily Ugandan newspapers. Method: The conceptual content of 59 articles on abortion between years 2006-2012, from the two main daily English-speaking newspapers in Uganda, was studied using principles from critical discourse analysis. Results: A religious discourse and a human rights discourse, together with medical and legal sub discourses frame the subject of abortion in Uganda, with consequences for who is portrayed as a victim and who is to blame for abortions taking place. It shows the strong presence of the Catholic Church within the medial debate on abortion. The results also demonstrate the absence of medial statements related to abortion made by political stakeholders. Conclusions: The Catholic Church has a strong position within the Ugandan society and their stance on abortion tends to have great influence on the way other actors and their activities are presented within the media, as well as how stakeholders choose to convey their message, or choose not to publicly debate the issue in question at all. To decrease the number of maternal deaths, we highlight the need for a more inclusive and varied debate that problematizes the current situation, especially from a gender perspective.