Do crude oil price changes affect economic growth of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh? : A multivariate time series analysis

This paper analyzes empirically the effect of crude oil price change on the economic growth of Indian-Subcontinent (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh). We use a multivariate Vector Autoregressive analysis followed by Wald Granger causality test and Impulse Response Function (IRF). Wald Granger causality test results show that only India’s economic growth is significantly affected when crude oil price decreases. Impact of crude oil price increase is insignificantly negative for all three countries during first year. In second year, impact is negative but smaller than first year for India, negative but larger for Bangladesh and positive for Pakistan.

Price elasticity of demand for cigarettes : The Case of Sweden

Due to health problems and the negative externalities associated with cigarette consumption, many governments try to discourage cigarette consumption by increasing its price through taxation. However, cigarette, like the other addictive goods, is viewed as that it is not sensitive to demand rules and the market forces. This study analyses the effect of price increase on cigarette consumption. We used Swedish time series data from 1970 to 2010. Our results reveal that though cigarette is addictive substance its demand is sensitive to changes in the price. Estimates from this study indicate short-run price-elasticity of -0.29 and the long run price elasticity of -0.47.

Firm relocation and firm profits : Evidence from the Swedish wholesale trade sector

This study analyses the effects of firm relocation on firm profits, using longitudinal data on Swedish limtied liability firms and employing a difference-in-differnce propensity score method in the empirical analysis. Using propensity score matching, the pre-relocalization differneces between relocating and non-relocating firms are balanced. In addition to that, a difference-in-difference estimator is employed in order to control for all time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity among firms. For matching, nearest neighbour matching, using the one-, two- and three nearest neighbours is employed. The balanacing results indicate that matching achieves a good balance, and that similar relocating and non-relocating firms are being compared. The estimated average treatment on the treatment effects indicate thats relocations has a significant effect on the profits of the relocating firms. In other words, firms taht relocate increase their profits significantly, in comparison to what the profits would be had the firms not relocated. This effect is estimated to vary between 3 to 11 percentage points, depending on the lenght of the analysed period after relocation. 

Entry, re-location and growth in the Swedish wholesale trade industry

Wholesale trade has an intermediate position between manufacturing and retail in the distributional channel. In modern economies, consumers buy few, if any, products directly from manufacture or producer. Instead, it is a wholesaler, who is in direct contact with producers, buying goods in larger quantities and selling them in smaller quantities to retailers. Traditionally, the main function of a wholesaler has been to push goods along the distributional channel from producer to retailer, or other nonend user. However, the function of wholesalers usually goes beyond the process of the physical distribution of goods. Wholesalers also arrange storage, perform market analyses, promote trade or provide technical support to consumers (Riemers 1998). The existence of wholesalers (and other intermediaries) in the distributional channel is based on the effective and efficient performance of distribution services, that are needed by producers and other members of the supply chain. Producers usually do not enjoy the economies of scale that they have in production, when it comes to providing distributional services (Rosenbloom 2007) and this creates a space for wholesalers or other intermediaries. Even though recent developments in the distributional channel indicate that traditional wholesaling activities now also compete with other supply chain organizations, wholesaling still remains an important activity in many economies (Quinn and Sparks, 2007). In 2010, the Swedish wholesale trade sector consisted of approximately 46.000 firms and generated an annual turnover of 1 300 billion SEK (Företagsstatistiken, Statistics Sweden). In terms of turnover, wholesaling accounts for 20% of the gross domestic product and is thereby the third largest industry. This is behind manufacturing and a composite group of firms in other sectors of the service industry but ahead of retailing. This indicates that the wholesale trade sector is an important part of the Swedish economy. The position of wholesaling is further reinforced when measuring productivity growth. Measured in terms of value added per employee, wholesaling experienced the largest productivity growth of all industries in the Swedish economy during the years 2000 through 2010. The fact that wholesale trade is one of the important parts of a modern economy, and the positive development of the Swedish wholesale trade sector in recent decades, leads to several questions related to industry dynamics. The three topics that will be examined in this thesis are firm entry, firm relocation and firm growth. The main question to be answered by this thesis is what factors influence new firm formation, firm relocation and firm growth in the Swedish wholesale trade sector?

Essays on firm dynamics in the Swedish wholesale trade sector

This thesis consists of a summary and five self-contained papers addressing dynamics of firms in the Swedish wholesale trade sector. Paper [1] focuses upon determinants of new firm formation in the Swedish wholesale trade sector, using two definitions of firms’ relevant markets, markets defined as administrative areas, and markets based on a cost minimizing behavior of retailers. The paper shows that new entering firms tend to avoid regions with already high concentration of other firms in the same branch of wholesaling, while right-of-the-center local government and quality of the infrastructure have positive impacts upon entry of new firms. The signs of the estimated coefficients remain the same regardless which definition of relevant market is used, while the size of the coefficients is generally higher once relevant markets delineated on the cost-minimizing assumption of retailers are used. Paper [2] analyses determinant of firm relocation, distinguishing between the role of the factors in in-migration municipalities and out-migration municipalities. The results of the analysis indicate that firm-specific factors, such as profits, age and size of the firm are negatively related to the firm’s decision to relocate. Furthermore, firms seems to be avoiding municipalities with already high concentration of firms operating in the same industrial branch of wholesaling and also to be more reluctant to leave municipalities governed by right-of-the- center parties. Lastly, firms seem to avoid moving to municipalities characterized with high population density. Paper [3] addresses determinants of firm growth, adopting OLS and a quantile regression technique. The results of this paper indicate that very little of the firm growth can be explained by the firm-, industry- and region-specific factors, controlled for in the estimated models. Instead, the firm growth seems to be driven by internal characteristics of firms, factors difficult to capture in conventional statistics. This result supports Penrose’s (1959) suggestion that internal resources such as firm culture, brand loyalty, entrepreneurial skills, and so on, are important determinants of firm growth rates. Paper [4] formulates a forecasting model for firm entry into local markets and tests this model using data from the Swedish wholesale industry. The empirical analysis is based on directly estimating the profit function of wholesale firms and identification of low- and high-return local markets. The results indicate that 19 of 30 estimated models have more net entry in high-return municipalities, but the estimated parameters is only statistically significant at conventional level in one of our estimated models, and then with unexpected negative sign. Paper [5] studies effects of firm relocation on firm profits of relocating firms, employing a difference-in-difference propensity score matching. Using propensity score matching, the pre-relocalization differences between relocating and non-relocating firms are balanced, while the difference-in-difference estimator controls for all time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity among firms. The results suggest that firms that relocate increase their profits significantly, in comparison to what the profits would be had the firms not relocated. This effect is estimated to vary between 3 to 11 percentage points, depending on the length of the analyzed period. 

The impact of price changes on volume sales of alcoholic beverages in Sweden, 2006-2013

We evaluate whether price elasticities on registered alcohol have changed in the last ten years in Sweden, in particular with regard to the investigation by Asplund et al (2007). We also investigate the fiscal effects of such changes. According to our estimates, price elasticities have increased, and these increases may have substantial effects on estimated changes in tax revenues when commodity tax rates are changed. In particular, commodity tax rates on spirits may have reached “Laffer territory” where tax increases may actually lower tax revenues.

Predicting entry of Swedish wholesale firms into local markets

Applying microeconomic theory, we develop a forecasting model for firm entry into local markets and test this model using data from the Swedish wholesale industry. The empirical analysis is based on directly estimating the profit function of wholesale firms. As in previous entry studies, profits are assumed to depend on firm- and location-specific factors,and the profit equation is estimated using panel data econometric techniques. Using the residuals from the profit equation estimations, we identify local markets in Sweden where firm profits are abnormally high given the level of all independent variables included in the profit function. From microeconomic theory, we then know that these local markets should have higher net entry than other markets, all else being equal, and we investigate this in a second step,also using a panel data econometric model. The results of estimating the net-entry equation indicate that four of five estimated models have more net entry in high-return municipalities, but the estimated parameter is only statistically significant at conventional levels in one of our estimated models.

Defining the links between retail price strategies and price tactics

Retailers tend to become trapped in a price-promotion war where price issues are dealt with on a short-term basis, indicating almost solely tactical choices. Since price is the only part of the marketing mix providing direct revenues to the organisation, it should also be of strategic importance for the retailer. Not only in practice are price tactics often separated from pricing strategies, it is also the case in research where these are often studied in isolation from each other probably due to their individual complexity. This paper contributes to both the research area and practice by discussing these two complex areas together, and the essence of both strategy and tactics are defined. By considering the planning horizon for the retailer this paper further contributes by defining the links between price strategy and price tactic. The conclusion shows the importance of clearly establishing which analytical level is being analysed.

Assumptions of retail price strategy and price tactic decisions

This licentiate thesis sets out to analyse how a retail price decision frame can be understood. It is argued that it is possible to view price determination within retailing by determining the level of rationality and using behavioural theories. In this way, it is possible to use assumptions derived from economics and marketing to establish a decision frame. By taking a management perspective, it is possible to take into consideration how it is assumed that the retailer should strategically manage price decisions, which decisions might be assumed to be price decisions, and which decisions can be assumed to be under the control of the retailer. Theoretically, this licentiate thesis has its foundations in different assumptions about decision frames regarding the level of information collected, the goal of the decisions, and the outcomes of the decisions. Since the concepts that are to be analysed within this thesis are price decisions, the latter part of the theory discusses price decision in specific: sequential price decisions, at the point of the decision, and trade-offs when making a decision. Here, it is evident that a conceptual decision frame that is intended to illustrate price decisions includes several aspects: several decision alternatives and what assumptions of rationality that can be made in relation to the decision frame. A semi-structured literature review was conducted. As a result, it became apparent that two important things in the decision frame were unclear: time assumptions regarding the decisions and the amount of information that is assumed in relation to the different decision alternatives. By using the same articles that were used to adjust the decision frame, a topical study was made in order to determine the time specific assumptions, as well as the analytical level based on the assumed information necessary for individual decision alternatives. This, together with an experimental study, was necessary to be able to discuss the consequences of the rationality assumption. When the retail literature is analysed for the level of rationality and consequences of assuming certain assumptions of rationality, three main things becomes apparent. First, the level of rationality or the assumptions of rationality are seldom made or accounted for in the literature. In fact, there are indications that perfect and bounded rationality assumptions are used simultaneously within studies. Second, although bounded rationality is a recognised theoretical perspective, very few articles seem to use these assumptions. Third, since the outcome of a price decision seems to provide no incremental sale, it is questionable which assumptions of rationality that should be used. It might even be the case that no assumptions of rationality at all should be used. In a broader perspective, the findings from this licentiate thesis show that the assumptions of rationality within retail research is unclear. There is an imbalance between the perspectives used, where the main assumptions seem to be concentrated to perfect rationality. However, it is suggested that by clarifying which assumptions of rationality that is used and using bounded rationality assumptions within research would result in a clearer picture of the multifaceted price decisions that could be assumed within retailing. The theoretical contribution of this thesis mainly surround the identification of how the level of rationality provides limiting assumptions within retail research. Furthermore, since indications show that learning might not occur within this specific context it is questioned whether the basic learning assumption within bounded rationality should be used in this context.