MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLATION RATES IN GHANA: AN APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS

Ghana faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem in somehow slows the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in African including Ghana. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana becomes very important for its government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. Using monthly inflation data from July 1991 to December 2009, we find that ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 can represent the data behavior of inflation rate in Ghana well. Based on the selected model, we forecast seven (7) months inflation rates of Ghana outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2010 to July 2010). The observed inflation rate from January to April which was published by Ghana Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point of Ghana inflation in the month of July.

Government spending and unemployment : An empirical study on Sweden, 1994-2012

The aim of the study was to see if any relationship between government spending andunemployment could be empirically found. To test if government spending affectsunemployment, a statistical model was applied on data from Sweden. The data was quarterlydata from the year 1994 until 2012, unit-root test were conducted and the variables wheretransformed to its first-difference so ensure stationarity. This transformation changed thevariables to growth rates. This meant that the interpretation deviated a little from the originalgoal. Other studies reviewed indicate that when government spending increases and/or taxesdecreases output increases. Studies show that unemployment decreases when governmentspending/GDP ratio increases. Some studies also indicated that with an already largegovernment sector increasing the spending it could have negative effect on output. The modelwas a VAR-model with unemployment, output, interest rate, taxes and government spending.Also included in the model were a linear and three quarterly dummies. The model used 7lags. The result was not statistically significant for most lags but indicated that as governmentspending growth rate increases holding everything else constant unemployment growth rateincreases. The result for taxes was even less statistically significant and indicates norelationship with unemployment. Post-estimation test indicates that there were problems withnon-normality in the model. So the results should be interpreted with some scepticism.

Testing Seasonal Unit Roots in Data at Any Frequency, an HEGY approach

This paper generalizes the HEGY-type test to detect seasonal unit roots in data at any frequency, based on the seasonal unit root tests in univariate time series by Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990). We introduce the seasonal unit roots at first, and then derive the mechanism of the HEGY-type test for data with any frequency. Thereafter we provide the asymptotic distributions of our test statistics when different test regressions are employed. We find that the F-statistics for testing conjugation unit roots have the same asymptotic distributions. Then we compute the finite-sample and asymptotic critical values for daily and hourly data by a Monte Carlo method. The power and size properties of our test for hourly data is investigated, and we find that including lag augmentations in auxiliary regression without lag elimination have the smallest size distortion and tests with seasonal dummies included in auxiliary regression have more power than the tests without seasonal dummies. At last we apply the our test to hourly wind power production data in Sweden and shows there are no seasonal unit roots in the series.

Testing common nonlinear features in vector nonlinear autoregressive models

This paper studies a special class of vector smooth-transition autoregressive (VSTAR) models that contains common nonlinear features (CNFs), for which we proposed a triangular representation and developed a procedure of testing CNFs in a VSTAR model. We first test a unit root against a stable STAR process for each individual time series and then examine whether CNFs exist in the system by Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test if unit root is rejected in the first step. The LM test has standard Chi-squared asymptotic distribution. The critical values of our unit root tests and small-sample properties of the F form of our LM test are studied by Monte Carlo simulations. We illustrate how to test and model CNFs using the monthly growth of consumption and income data of United States (1985:1 to 2011:11).

Testing of combined heating systems for small houses: Improved procedures for whole system test methods : Deliverable 2.3

Dynamic system test methods for heating systems were developed and applied by the institutes SERC and SP from Sweden, INES from France and SPF from Switzerland already before the MacSheep project started. These test methods followed the same principle: a complete heating system – including heat generators, storage, control etc., is installed on the test rig; the test rig software and hardware simulates and emulates the heat load for space heating and domestic hot water of a single family house, while the unit under test has to act autonomously to cover the heat demand during a representative test cycle. Within the work package 2 of the MacSheep project these similar – but different – test methods were harmonized and improved. The work undertaken includes:  • Harmonization of the physical boundaries of the unit under test. • Harmonization of the boundary conditions of climate and load. • Definition of an approach to reach identical space heat load in combination with an autonomous control of the space heat distribution by the unit under test. • Derivation and validation of new six day and a twelve day test profiles for direct extrapolation of test results.   The new harmonized test method combines the advantages of the different methods that existed before the MacSheep project. The new method is a benchmark test, which means that the load for space heating and domestic hot water preparation will be identical for all tested systems, and that the result is representative for the performance of the system over a whole year. Thus, no modelling and simulation of the tested system is needed in order to obtain the benchmark results for a yearly cycle. The method is thus also applicable to products for which simulation models are not available yet. Some of the advantages of the new whole system test method and performance rating compared to the testing and energy rating of single components are:  • Interaction between the different components of a heating system, e.g. storage, solar collector circuit, heat pump, control, etc. are included and evaluated in this test. • Dynamic effects are included and influence the result just as they influence the annual performance in the field. • Heat losses are influencing the results in a more realistic way, since they are evaluated under "real installed" and representative part-load conditions rather than under single component steady state conditions.   The described method is also suited for the development process of new systems, where it replaces time-consuming and costly field testing with the advantage of a higher accuracy of the measured data (compared to the typically used measurement equipment in field tests) and identical, thus comparable boundary conditions. Thus, the method can be used for system optimization in the test bench under realistic operative conditions, i.e. under relevant operating environment in the lab.   This report describes the physical boundaries of the tested systems, as well as the test procedures and the requirements for both the unit under test and the test facility. The new six day and twelve day test profiles are also described as are the validation results.

CO2 Emissions, GDP and trade : a panel cointegration approach

This paper examines the relationships among per capita CO2 emissions, per capita GDP and international trade based on panel data sets spanning the period 1960-2008: one for 150 countries and the others for sub-samples comprising OECD and Non-OECD economies. We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests, and estimate a panel error correction model. The results from the error correction model suggest that there are long-term relationships between the variables for the whole sample and for Non-OECD countries. Finally, Granger causality tests show that there is bi-directional short-term causality between per capita GDP and international trade for the whole sample and between per capita GDP and CO2 emissions for OECD countries

Essays on growth and environment

This thesis consists of a summary and four self-contained papers. Paper [I] Following the 1987 report by The World Commission on Environment and Development, the genuine saving has come to play a key role in the context of sustainable development, and the World Bank regularly publishes numbers for genuine saving on a national basis. However, these numbers are typically calculated as if the tax system is non-distortionary. This paper presents an analogue to genuine saving in a second best economy, where the government raises revenue by means of distortionary taxation. We show how the social cost of public debt, which depends on the marginal excess burden, ought to be reflected in the genuine saving. We also illustrate by presenting calculations for Greece, Japan, Portugal, U.K., U.S. and OECD average, showing that the numbers published by the World Bank are likely to be biased and may even give incorrect information as to whether the economy is locally sustainable. Paper [II] This paper examines the relationships among per capita CO2 emissions, per capita GDP and international trade based on panel data spanning the period 1960-2008 for 150 countries. A distinction is also made between OECD and Non-OECD countries to capture the differences of this relationship between developed and developing economies. We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests, and estimate a panel error correction model. The results from the error correction model suggest that there are long-term relationships between the variables for the whole sample and for Non-OECD countries. Finally, Granger causality tests show that there is bi-directional short-term causality between per capita GDP and international trade for the whole sample and between per capita GDP and CO2 emissions for OECD countries. Paper [III] Fundamental questions in economics are why some regions are richer than others, why their growth rates differ, whether their growth rates tend to converge, and what key factors contribute to explain economic growth. This paper deals with the average income growth, net migration, and changes in unemployment rates at the municipal level in Sweden. The aim is to explore in depth the effects of possible underlying determinants with a particular focus on local policy variables. The analysis is based on a three-equation model. Our results show, among other things, that increases in the local public expenditure and income taxe rate have negative effects on subsequent income income growth. In addition, the results show conditional convergence, i.e. that the average income among the municipal residents tends to grow more rapidly in relatively poor local jurisdictions than in initially “richer” jurisdictions, conditional on the other explanatory variables. Paper [IV] This paper explores the relationship between income growth and income inequality using data at the municipal level in Sweden for the period 1992-2007. We estimate a fixed effects panel data growth model, where the within-municipality income inequality is one of the explanatory variables. Different inequality measures (Gini coefficient, top income shares, and measures of inequality in the lower and upper part of the income distribution) are examined. We find a positive and significant relationship between income growth and income inequality measured as the Gini coefficient and top income shares, respectively. In addition, while inequality in the upper part of the income distribution is positively associated with the income growth rate, inequality in the lower part of the income distribution seems to be negatively related to the income growth. Our findings also suggest that increased income inequality enhances growth more in municipalities with a high level of average income than in municipalities with a low level of average income.

Testing for Seasonal Unit Roots when Residuals Contain Serial Correlations under HEGY Test Framework

This paper introduces a corrected test statistic for testing seasonal unit roots when residuals contain serial correlations, based on the HEGY test proposed by Hylleberg,Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990). The serial correlations in the residuals of test regressionare accommodated by making corrections to the commonly used HEGY t statistics. Theasymptotic distributions of the corrected t statistics are free from nuisance parameters.The size and power properties of the corrected statistics for quarterly and montly data are investigated. Based on our simulations, the corrected statistics for monthly data havemore power compared with the commonly used HEGY test statistics, but they also have size distortions when there are strong negative seasonal correlations in the residuals.

Improvement of Routine Test Process of High Voltage Power Capacitors

The capacitor test process at ABB Capacitors in Ludvika must be improved to meet future demands for high voltage products. To find a solution to how to improve the test process, an investigation was performed to establish which parts of the process are used and how they operate. Several parts which can improves the process were identified. One of them was selected to be improved in correlation with the subject, mechanical engineering. Four concepts were generated and decision matrixes were used to systematically select the best concept. By improving the process several benefits has been added to the process. More units are able to be tested and lead time is reduced. As the lead time is reduced the cost for each unit is reduced, workers will work less hours for the same amount of tested units, future work to further improve the process is also identified. The selected concept was concept 1, the sway stop concept. This concept is used to reduce the sway of the capacitors as they have entered the test facility, the box. By improving this part of the test process a time saving of 20 seconds per unit can be achieved, equivalent to 7% time reduction. This can be compared to an additional 1400 units each year.

A web application for follow-up of results from a mobile device test battery for parkinson’s disease patients

Background: A test battery consisting of self-assessments and motor tests (tapping and spiral drawing) was developed for a hand computer with touch screen in a telemedicine setting. Objectives: To develop and evaluate a web-based system that delivers decision support information to the treating clinical staff for assessing PD symptoms in their patients based on the test battery data. Methods: The test battery is currently being used in a clinical trial (DAPHNE, EudraCT No. 2005-002654-21) by sixty five patients with advanced Parkinson’s disease (PD) on 9991 test occasions (four tests per day during in all 362 week-long test periods) at nine clinics around Sweden. Test results are sent continuously from the hand unit over a mobile net to a central computer and processed with statistical methods. They are summarized into scores for different dimensions of the symptom state and an ‘overall test score’ reflecting the overall condition of the patient during a test period. The information in the web application is organized and presented graphically in a way that the general overview of the patient performance per test period is emphasized. Focus is on the overall test score, symptom dimensions and daily summaries. In a recent preliminary user evaluation, the web application was demonstrated to the fifteen study nurses who had used the test battery in the clinical trial. At least one patient per clinic was shown. Results: In general, the responses from nurses were positive. They claimed that the test results shown in the system were consistent with their own clinical observations. They could follow complications, changes and trends within their patients. Discussion: In conclusion, the system is able to summarise the various time series of motor test results and self-assessments during test periods and present them in a useful manner. Its main contribution is a novel and reliable way to capture and easily access symptom information from patients’ home environment. The convenient access to current symptom profile as well as symptom history provides a basis for individualized evaluation and adjustment of treatments.