MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLATION RATES IN GHANA: AN APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS

Ghana faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem in somehow slows the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in African including Ghana. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana becomes very important for its government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. Using monthly inflation data from July 1991 to December 2009, we find that ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 can represent the data behavior of inflation rate in Ghana well. Based on the selected model, we forecast seven (7) months inflation rates of Ghana outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2010 to July 2010). The observed inflation rate from January to April which was published by Ghana Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point of Ghana inflation in the month of July.

Det är värre att inte börja studera än att hoppa av: En fenomenologisk studie om hur icke traditionella studenter upplever studieavhopp från högskoleutbildning

In Sweden we have the highest rate of nontraditional students among Europe. Coincidently, we also have the highest rates of drop outs among OECD. In this particular field, drop out from higher education, there is a need fore more qualitative studies that can support the "statistics". Studies about experiences of drop outs are significant for society, university and individual. The aim of this study is to describe and understand how nontraditional student experiences drop out from higher education. What do they tell regarding their meeting with the university? How is the drop out visible before the decision to quit? How can the way forward to the drop out be described? What does the university mean for them? The theoretical point of departure is the concept lifeworld and the method is phenomenological hermeneutic with narrative interviews with 5 students. The result points out that the meeting with the university implies a meeting with other individuals, and also a "meeting" within the student himself, by inner questioning and reflection. The students’ relationship to the studies is characterized by the experience of understanding. The dropouts are visible through different events. The decision per se has increased over time and the students have also grown personally by the decision. To understand or not understand is crucial for the experience of learning. The drop out can also be seen as a transition and a turning point. The drop out is an effort and takes place without professional staff, therefore needs to be discussed in public.

Gli studi italiani sulla regina Cristina di Svezia negli ultimi cinquant'anni

Queen Christina of Sweden (1626-1689)) is probably the most important individual to directly link the cultures of Sweden and Italy, and thus fascinate scholars over the last four centuries. In the last fifty years, research on and interest in this monarch has been particularly intense. This has led to current international scientific debate concerning all the different cultural expressions in which Queen Cristina was particularly involved. However, until now there has been lacking a comprehensive work to illustrate the development of scientific research in Italian on Queen Christina. This article, therefore, without claiming to be exhaustive, aims to fill this gap by identifying the main direction of current research. The article, after briefly introducing previous works (both Italian and Swedish), demonstrates how the first major renaissance of international studies on Queen Cristina took place in Sweden in the early 1960s. Even more important was the subsequent turning point in 1989, when the tercentenary of the death of Queen Christina was celebrated and the Azzolino Collection at the Biblioteca Comunale in Jesi was opened. The article focuses on the studies in Italian during this latter period. To make the exposition more organic and, importantly, more accessible to those readers interested in only one particular aspect of the scientific studies about Queen Christina, the studies in Italian since 1689 are divided into different subject areas.