The Power of the Synthetic Control Method

The synthetic control method (SCM) is a new, popular method developed for the purpose of estimating the effect of an intervention when only one single unit has been exposed. Other similar, unexposed units are combined into a synthetic control unit intended to mimic the evolution in the exposed unit, had it not been subject to exposure. As the inference relies on only a single observational unit, the statistical inferential issue is a challenge. In this paper, we examine the statistical properties of the estimator, study a number of features potentially yielding uncertainty in the estimator, discuss the rationale for statistical inference in relation to SCM, and provide a Web-app for researchers to aid in their decision of whether SCM is powerful for a specific case study. We conclude that SCM is powerful with a limited number of controls in the donor pool and a fairly short pre-intervention time period. This holds as long as the parameter of interest is a parametric specification of the intervention effect, and the duration of post-intervention period is reasonably long, and the fit of the synthetic control unit to the exposed unit in the pre-intervention period is good.

Combined solar and pellet heating systems for single-family houses : How to achieve decreased electricity usage, increased system efficiency and increased solar gains

In Sweden, there are about 0.5 million single-family houses that are heated by electricity alone, and rising electricity costs force the conversion to other heating sources such as heat pumps and wood pellet heating systems. Pellet heating systems for single-family houses are currently a strongly growing market. Future lack of wood fuels is possible even in Sweden, and combining wood pellet heating with solar heating will help to save the bio-fuel resources. The objectives of this thesis are to investigate how the electrically heated single-family houses can be converted to pellet and solar heating systems, and how the annual efficiency and solar gains can be increased in such systems. The possible reduction of CO-emissions by combining pellet heating with solar heating has also been investigated. Systems with pellet stoves (both with and without a water jacket), pellet boilers and solar heating have been simulated. Different system concepts have been compared in order to investigate the most promising solutions. Modifications in system design and control strategies have been carried out in order to increase the system efficiency and the solar gains. Possibilities for increasing the solar gains have been limited to investigation of DHW-units for hot water production and the use of hot water for heating of dishwashers and washing machines via a heat exchanger instead of electricity (heat-fed appliances). Computer models of pellet stoves, boilers, DHW-units and heat-fed appliances have been developed and the parameters for the models have been identified from measurements on real components. The conformity between the models and the measurements has been checked. The systems with wood pellet stoves have been simulated in three different multi-zone buildings, simulated in detail with heat distribution through door openings between the zones. For the other simulations, either a single-zone house model or a load file has been used. Simulations were carried out for Stockholm, Sweden, but for the simulations with heat-fed machines also for Miami, USA. The foremost result of this thesis is the increased understanding of the dynamic operation of combined pellet and solar heating systems for single-family houses. The results show that electricity savings and annual system efficiency is strongly affected by the system design and the control strategy. Large reductions in pellet consumption are possible by combining pellet boilers with solar heating (a reduction larger than the solar gains if the system is properly designed). In addition, large reductions in carbon monoxide emissions are possible. To achieve these reductions it is required that the hot water production and the connection of the radiator circuit is moved to a well insulated, solar heated buffer store so that the boiler can be turned off during the periods when the solar collectors cover the heating demand. The amount of electricity replaced using systems with pellet stoves is very dependant on the house plan, the system design, if internal doors are open or closed and the comfort requirements. Proper system design and control strategies are crucial to obtain high electricity savings and high comfort with pellet stove systems. The investigated technologies for increasing the solar gains (DHW-units and heat-fed appliances) significantly increase the solar gains, but for the heat-fed appliances the market introduction is difficult due to the limited financial savings and the need for a new heat distribution system. The applications closest to market introduction could be for communal laundries and for use in sunny climates where the dominating part of the heat can be covered by solar heating. The DHW-unit is economical but competes with the internal finned-tube heat exchanger which is the totally dominating technology for hot water preparation in solar combisystems for single-family houses.

Using locally available components and local knowledge to build sustainable stand-alone power systems

The aim of this paper is to point out benefits as well as disadvantages associated with the use of locally available, not necessarily standardized, components in stand-alone electrical power systems at rural locations. Advantages and challenges arising when the direct involvement in design, construction and maintenance of the power system is reserved to people based in the area of implementation are discussed. The presented research is centered around one particular PV-diesel hybrid system in Tanzania; a case study in which technical and social aspects related to the particular power system are studied.

Managing ServerHotel

This graduate study was assigned by Unisys Oy Ab. The purpose of this study was to find tools to monitor and manage servers and objects in a hosting environment and to remotely connect to the managed objects. Better solutions for promised services were also researched. Unisys provides a ServerHotel service to other businesses which do not have time or resources to manage their own network, servers or applications. Contracts are based on a Service Level Agreement where service level is agreed upon according to the customer's needs. These needs have created a demand for management tools. Unisys wanted to find the most appropriate tools for its hosting environment to fulfill the agreed service level with reasonable costs. The theory consists of literary research focusing on general agreements used in the Finnish IT business, different types of monitoring and management tools and the common protocols used inthem. The theory focuses mainly on the central elements of the above mentioned topics and on their positive and negative features. The second part of the study focuses on general hosting agreements and what management tools Unisys has selected for hosting and why. It also gives a more detailed account of the hosting environment and its features in more detail. Because of the results of the study Unisys decided to use Servers Alive to monitor network and MS applications’ services. Cacti was chosen to monitor disk spaces, which gives us an idea of future disk growth. For remote connections the Microsoft’s Remote Desktop tool was the mostappropriate when the connection was tunneled through Secure Shell (SSH). Finding proper tools for the intended purposes with cost-conscious financial resources proved challenging. This study showed that if required, it is possible to build a professional hosting environment.

A fuzzy logic controller for intestinal levodopa infusion in Parkinson’s disease

The aim of this work is to evaluate the fuzzy system for different types of patients for levodopa infusion in Parkinson Disease based on simulation experiments using the pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model. Fuzzy system is to control patient’s condition by adjusting the value of flow rate, and it must be effective on three types of patients, there are three different types of patients, including sensitive, typical and tolerant patient; the sensitive patients are very sensitive to drug dosage, but the tolerant patients are resistant to drug dose, so it is important for controller to deal with dose increment and decrement to adapt different types of patients, such as sensitive and tolerant patients. Using the fuzzy system, three different types of patients can get useful control for simulating medication treatment, and controller will get good effect for patients, when the initial flow rate of infusion is in the small range of the approximate optimal value for the current patient’ type.

Provningsmetod för integrerade sol-biosystem : Årsverkningsgrad genom korttidsmätning

Test method for integrated solar- biomass systems - Long term prediction trough short term measurementsSP Technical Research Institute of Sweden and SERC, Dalarna University have in cooperation developed a test method for integrated solar and biomass systems. The test method is performed under six days including two summer days, two winter days and two spring/autumn days true to real weather conditions and loads for a single family house. The aim of the test method is to get information about a Combisystem’s annual performance and operation throughout a short term test. Seven different solar Combisystems have been tested within the project together with a pellet boiler without solar collectors. In addition to that a comparative testing has been performed at the two laboratories at SP and at SERC on the same Combisystem. The test method developed within the project has been proved to withstand the aim of the project, which is to be able to compare the performance between the systems. The test method is also suitable for identification of possible operation problems so they can be taken care of and consequently improves the system.The project and the system testing reveal that it is in general favorable to combine biomass pellets with solar heating. Pellet boilers has normally a low performance during the summer period but combined with a solar collector the boiler can be switch off during this period. There are however big differences in performance between the tested. The efficiency of the pellet boiler is highly dependent of the operating conditions and elements like heat losses from the system, system configuration and control strategy have great influence of the performance of the system and the emissions. On the other hand, the performance and the size of the solar collectors have a minor effect on the overall system performance. There is obviously a big potential for improvement of the system´s performance and the developed test method is an essential way to implement this perfection.

Travel Report from the first field trip within the SIDA supported project "Mini-grids supplied by renewable energy - improving technical and social feasibility : Including visits to Ihushi Development Center, Tweyambe Secondary School and Mavuno Project in Tanzania. Conducted in April 2011

This report describes the outcome of the first visit to Tanzania, within the project "Mini-grids supplied by renewable energy - improving technical and social feasibility". The trip included visits to three different organizations; Ihushi Development Center (IDC) near Mwanza, TIDESO near Bukoba, and Mavuno Project in Karagwe. At IDC, a brief evaluation of the current power system was done and measuring equipment for long term measurements were installed. At all three locations investigations regarding the current and future electricity demand were conducted and connections to people relevant to the study were established. The report is including as well some technical specifications as some observations regarding organization and management of the technical systems. The trip was including only short visits and therefore only brief introductions to the different organizations, based on observations done by the author. The report is hence describing the author’s understanding of the technical system and social structures after only short visits to each of the organizations, and may differ from observations done at another point in time, over a different time period, or by some other person.This report describes the outcome of the first visit to Tanzania, within the project "Mini-grids supplied by renewable energy - improving technical and social feasibility". The trip included visits to three different organizations; Ihushi Development Center (IDC) near Mwanza, TIDESO near Bukoba, and Mavuno Project in Karagwe. At IDC, a brief evaluation of the current power system was done and measuring equipment for long term measurements were installed. At all three locations investigations regarding the current and future electricity demand were conducted and connections to people relevant to the study were established. The report is including as well some technical specifications as some observations regarding organization and management of the technical systems. The trip was including only short visits and therefore only brief introductions to the different organizations, based on observations done by the author. The report is hence describing the author’s understanding of the technical system and social structures after only short visits to each of the organizations, and may differ from observations done at another point in time, over a different time period, or by some other person.