Testing linear cointegration against smooth-transition cointegration

This paper studies a smooth-transition (ST) type cointegration. The proposed ST cointegration allows for regime switching structure in a cointegrated system. It nests the linear cointegration developed by Engle and Granger (1987) and the threshold cointegration studied by Balke and Fomby (1997). We develop F-type tests to examine linear cointegration against ST cointegration in ST-type cointegrating regression models with or without time trends. The null asymptotic distributions of the tests are derived with stationary transition variables in ST cointegrating regression models. And it is shown that our tests have nonstandard limiting distributions expressed in terms of standard Brownian motion when regressors are pure random walks, while have standard asymptotic distributions when regressors contain random walks with nonzero drift. Finite-sample distributions of those tests are studied by Monto Carlo simulations. The small-sample performance of the tests states that our F-type tests have a better power when the system contains ST cointegration than when the system is linearly cointegrated. An empirical example for the purchasing power parity (PPP) data (monthly US dollar, Italy lira and dollar-lira exchange rate from 1973:01 to 1989:10) is illustrated by applying the testing procedures in this paper. It is found that there is no linear cointegration in the system, but there exits the ST-type cointegration in the PPP data.

Citizenship formation for a new millennium in Sweden : a prognosis of our time

The aim of this article is to forecast the present situation of citizenship formation in the field of Swedish education. In highlighting trends and tendencies in the educational assignment to provide for democratic citizenship in the first decade of the 21st century, which can be characterised as lacking collective visions for change, three depictions of citizenship are prevailing: citizenship formation for deliberation, for entrepreneurship and for therapeutic intervention. These depictions are analysed in terms of the direction for action taking and attention that they stress and produce as concerns citizenship in the making. The first one, citizenship formation for deliberation, stresses an inward-looking and inward-feeling citizenship. The second one, citizenship formation for entrepreneurship, stresses an inward-looking and outward-making citizenship, and the third one, citizenship formation for therapeutic intervention, stresses an inward-looking and outward-making citizenship. Taking on this forecast, which actualises democracy as something that is already achieved as a consequence of an assumedly post political situation, we argue that citizenship as well as society itself risks being pictured as apolitical and democratically “saturated.” This situation is hazardous, we argue, as it does not open up for change to come into question as desirable or even possible. Put differently, it leaves us with the notion that things have to be as they are, as we are living in the best of worlds.