MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLATION RATES IN GHANA: AN APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS

Ghana faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem in somehow slows the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in African including Ghana. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana becomes very important for its government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. Using monthly inflation data from July 1991 to December 2009, we find that ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 can represent the data behavior of inflation rate in Ghana well. Based on the selected model, we forecast seven (7) months inflation rates of Ghana outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2010 to July 2010). The observed inflation rate from January to April which was published by Ghana Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point of Ghana inflation in the month of July.

Beyond the numbers of maternal near-miss in Rwanda - a qualitative study on women's perspectives on access and experiences of care in early and late stage of pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Rwanda has made remarkable progress in decreasing the number of maternal deaths, yet women still face morbidities and mortalities during pregnancy. We explored care-seeking and experiences of maternity care among women who suffered a near-miss event during either the early or late stage of pregnancy, and identified potential health system limitations or barriers to maternal survival in this setting. METHODS: A framework of Naturalistic Inquiry guided the study design and analysis, and the 'three delays' model facilitated data sorting. Participants included 47 women, who were interviewed at three hospitals in Kigali, and 14 of these were revisited in their homes, from March 2013 to April 2014. RESULTS: The women confronted various care-seeking barriers depending on whether the pregnancy was wanted, the gestational age, insurance coverage, and marital status. Poor communication between the women and healthcare providers seemed to result in inadequate or inappropriate treatment, leading some to seek either traditional medicine or care repeatedly at biomedical facilities. CONCLUSION: Improved service provision routines, information, and amendments to the insurance system are suggested to enhance prompt care-seeking. Additionally, we strongly recommend a health system that considers the needs of all pregnant women, especially those facing unintended pregnancies or complications in the early stages of pregnancy.

Analysis of Structure and Tendencies of Qualified Immigrant Workforce on the Swedish Labor Market

The purpose of this paper is to make quantitative and qualitative analysis of foreign citizens who may participate on the Swedish labor market (in text refers to as ‘immigrants’). This research covers the period 1973-2005 and gives prediction figures of immigrant population, age and gender structure, and education attainment in 2010. To cope with data regarding immigrants from different countries, the population was divided into six groups. The main chapter is divided into two parts. The first part specifies division of immigrants into groups by country of origin according to geographical, ethnical, economical and historical criteria. Brief characteristics and geographic position, dynamic and structure description were given for each group; historical review explain rapid changes in immigrant population. Statistical models for description and estimation future population were given. The second part specifies education and qualification level of the immigrants according to international and Swedish standards. Models for estimating age and gender structure, level of education and professional orientation of immigrants in different groups are given. Inferences were made regarding ethnic, gender and education structure of immigrants; the distribution of immigrants among Swedish counties is given. Discussion part presents the results of the research, gives perspectives for the future brief evaluation of the role of immigrants on the Swedish labor market.

Healthcare providers balancing norms and practice : challenges and opportunities in providing contraceptive counselling to young people in Uganda - a qualitative study

BACKGROUND: Pregnancies among young women force girls to compromise education, resulting in low educational attainment with subsequent poverty and vulnerability. A pronounced focus is needed on contraceptive use, pregnancy, and unsafe abortion among young women. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to explore healthcare providers' (HCPs) perceptions and practices regarding contraceptive counselling to young people. DESIGN: We conducted 27 in-depth interviews with doctors and midwives working in seven health facilities in central Uganda. Interviews were open-ended and allowed the participant to speak freely on certain topics. We used a topic guide to cover areas topics of interest focusing on post-abortion care (PAC) but also covering contraceptive counselling. Transcripts were transcribed verbatim and data were analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: The main theme, HCPs' ambivalence to providing contraceptive counselling to sexually active young people is based on two sub-themes describing the challenges of contraceptive counselling: A) HCPs echo the societal norms regarding sexual practice among young people, while at the same time our findings B) highlights the opportunities resulting from providers pragmatic approach to contraceptive counselling to young women. Providers expressed a self-identified lack of skill, limited resources, and inadequate support from the health system to successfully provide appropriate services to young people. They felt frustrated with the consultations, especially when meeting young women seeking PAC. CONCLUSIONS: Despite existing policies for young people's sexual and reproductive health in Uganda, HCPs are not sufficiently equipped to provide adequate contraceptive counselling to young people. Instead, HCPs are left in between the negative influence of social norms and their pragmatic approach to address the needs of young people, especially those seeking PAC. We argue that a clear policy supported by a clear strategy with practical guidelines should be implemented alongside in-service training including value clarification and attitude transformation to equip providers to be able to better cater to young people seeking sexual and reproductive health advice.

Does mode of follow-up influence contraceptive use after medical abortion in a low-resource setting? Secondary outcome analysis of a non-inferiority randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Post-abortion contraceptive use in India is low and the use of modern methods of contraception is rare, especially in rural areas. This study primarily compares contraceptive use among women whose abortion outcome was assessed in-clinic with women who assessed their abortion outcome at home, in a low-resource, primary health care setting. Moreover, it investigates how background characteristics and abortion service provision influences contraceptive use post-abortion. METHODS: A randomized controlled, non-inferiority, trial (RCT) compared clinic follow-up with home-assessment of abortion outcome at 2 weeks post-abortion. Additionally, contraceptive-use at 3 months post-abortion was investigated through a cross-sectional follow-up interview with a largely urban sub-sample of women from the RCT. Women seeking abortion with a gestational age of up to 9 weeks and who agreed to a 2-week follow-up were included (n = 731). Women with known contraindications to medical abortions, Hb < 85 mg/l and aged below 18 were excluded. Data were collected between April 2013 and August 2014 in six primary health-care clinics in Rajasthan. A computerised random number generator created the randomisation sequence (1:1) in blocks of six. Contraceptive use was measured at 2 weeks among women successfully followed-up (n = 623) and 3 months in the sub-set of women who were included if they were recruited at one of the urban study sites, owned a phone and agreed to a 3-month follow-up (n = 114). RESULTS: There were no differences between contraceptive use and continuation between study groups at 3 months (76 % clinic follow-up, 77 % home-assessment), however women in the clinic follow-up group were most likely to adopt a contraceptive method at 2 weeks (62 ± 12 %), while women in the home-assessment group were most likely to adopt a method after next menstruation (60 ± 13 %). Fifty-two per cent of women who initiated a method at 2 weeks chose the 3-month injection or the copper intrauterine device. Only 4 % of women preferred sterilization. Caste, educational attainment, or type of residence did not influence contraceptive use. CONCLUSIONS: Simplified follow-up after early medical abortion will not change women's opportunities to access contraception in a low-resource setting, if contraceptive services are provided as intra-abortion services as early as on day one. Women's postabortion contraceptive use at 3 months is unlikely to be affected by mode of followup after medical abortion, also in a low-resource setting. Clinical guidelines need to encourage intra-abortion contraception, offering the full spectrum of evidence-based methods, especially long-acting reversible methods. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01827995.

Daily Calls Volume Forecasting

A massive amount has been written about forecasting but few articles are written about the development of time series models of call volumes for emergency services. In this study, we use different techniques for forecasting and make the comparison of the techniques for the call volume of the emergency service Rescue 1122 Lahore, Pakistan. For the purpose of this study data is taken from emergency calls of Rescue 1122 from 1st January 2008 to 31 December 2009 and 731 observations are used. Our goal is to develop a simple model that could be used for forecasting the daily call volume. Two different approaches are used for forecasting the daily call volume Box and Jenkins (ARIMA) methodology and Smoothing methodology. We generate the models for forecasting of call volume and present a comparison of the two different techniques.