Speed prediction for triggering vehicle activated signs

Accurate speed prediction is a crucial step in the development of a dynamic vehcile activated sign (VAS). A previous study showed that the optimal trigger speed of such signs will need to be pre-determined according to the nature of the site and to the traffic conditions. The objective of this paper is to find an accurate predictive model based on historical traffic speed data to derive the optimal trigger speed for such signs. Adaptive neuro fuzzy (ANFIS), classification and regression tree (CART) and random forest (RF) were developed to predict one step ahead speed during all times of the day. The developed models were evaluated and compared to the results obtained from artificial neural network (ANN), multiple linear regression (MLR) and naïve prediction using traffic speed data collected at four sites located in Sweden. The data were aggregated into two periods, a short term period (5-min) and a long term period (1-hour). The results of this study showed that using RF is a promising method for predicting mean speed in the two proposed periods.. It is concluded that in terms of performance and computational complexity, a simplistic input features to the predicitive model gave a marked increase in the response time of the model whilse still delivering a low prediction error.

Classification of Parkinson’s Disease using MultiPass Lvq,Logistic Model Tree,K-Star for Audio Data set : Classification of Parkinson Disease using Audio Dataset

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a degenerative illness whose cardinal symptoms include rigidity, tremor, and slowness of movement. In addition to its widely recognized effects PD can have a profound effect on speech and voice.The speech symptoms most commonly demonstrated by patients with PD are reduced vocal loudness, monopitch, disruptions of voice quality, and abnormally fast rate of speech. This cluster of speech symptoms is often termed Hypokinetic Dysarthria.The disease can be difficult to diagnose accurately, especially in its early stages, due to this reason, automatic techniques based on Artificial Intelligence should increase the diagnosing accuracy and to help the doctors make better decisions. The aim of the thesis work is to predict the PD based on the audio files collected from various patients.Audio files are preprocessed in order to attain the features.The preprocessed data contains 23 attributes and 195 instances. On an average there are six voice recordings per person, By using data compression technique such as Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) number of instances can be minimized, after data compression, attribute selection is done using several WEKA build in methods such as ChiSquared, GainRatio, Infogain after identifying the important attributes, we evaluate attributes one by one by using stepwise regression.Based on the selected attributes we process in WEKA by using cost sensitive classifier with various algorithms like MultiPass LVQ, Logistic Model Tree(LMT), K-Star.The classified results shows on an average 80%.By using this features 95% approximate classification of PD is acheived.This shows that using the audio dataset, PD could be predicted with a higher level of accuracy.

The value of a saved tree : The lifecycle of CO2-emissions associated with the combination of printing paper and electricity production of wood in the U.S. and Sweden

The pulp- and paper production is a very energy intensive industry sector. Both Sweden and the U.S. are major pulpandpaper producers. This report examines the energy and the CO2-emission connected with the pulp- and paperindustry for the two countries from a lifecycle perspective.New technologies make it possible to increase the electricity production in the integrated pulp- andpaper mill through black liquor gasification and a combined cycle (BLGCC). That way, the mill canproduce excess electricity, which can be sold and replace electricity produced in power plants. In thisprocess the by-products that are formed at the pulp-making process is used as fuel to produce electricity.In pulp- and paper mills today the technology for generating energy from the by-product in aTomlinson boiler is not as efficient as it could be compared to the BLGCC technology. Scenarios havebeen designed to investigate the results from using the BLGCC technique using a life cycle analysis.Two scenarios are being represented by a 1994 mill in the U.S. and a 1994 mill in Sweden.The scenariosare based on the average energy intensity of pulp- and paper mills as operating in 1994 in the U.S.and Sweden respectively. The two other scenarios are constituted by a »reference mill« in the U.S. andSweden using state-of-the-art technology. We investigate the impact of varying recycling rates and totalenergy use and CO2-emissions from the production of printing and writing paper. To economize withthe wood and that way save trees, we can use the trees that are replaced by recycling in a biomassgasification combined cycle (BIGCC) to produce electricity in a power station. This produces extra electricitywith a lower CO2 intensity than electricity generated by, for example, coal-fired power plants.The lifecycle analysis in this thesis also includes the use of waste treatment in the paper lifecycle. Both Sweden and theU.S. are countries that recycle paper. Still there is a lot of paper waste, this paper is a part of the countries municipalsolid waste (MSW). A lot of the MSW is landfilled, but parts of it are incinerated to extract electricity. The thesis hasdesigned special scenarios for the use of MSW in the lifecycle analysis.This report is studying and comparing two different countries and two different efficiencies on theBLGCC in four different scenarios. This gives a wide survey and points to essential parameters to specificallyreflect on, when making assumptions in a lifecycle analysis. The report shows that there arethree key parameters that have to be carefully considered when making a lifecycle analysis of wood inan energy and CO2-emission perspective in the pulp- and paper mill in the U.S. and in Sweden. First,there is the energy efficiency in the pulp- and paper mill, then the efficiency of the BLGCC and last theCO2 intensity of the electricity displaced by BIGCC or BLGCC generatedelectricity. It also show that with the current technology that we havetoday, it is possible to produce CO2 free paper with a waste paper amountup to 30%. The thesis discusses the system boundaries and the assumptions.Further and more detailed research, including amongst others thesystem boundaries and forestry, is recommended for more specificanswers.

An Analysis of the Telecommunications Business in China by Linear Regression

In this paper, we study the influence of the National Telecom Business Volume by the data in 2008 that have been published in China Statistical Yearbook of Statistics. We illustrate the procedure of modeling “National Telecom Business Volume” on the following eight variables, GDP, Consumption Levels, Retail Sales of Social Consumer Goods Total Renovation Investment, the Local Telephone Exchange Capacity, Mobile Telephone Exchange Capacity, Mobile Phone End Users, and the Local Telephone End Users. The testing of heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity for model evaluation is included. We also consider AIC and BIC criterion to select independent variables, and conclude the result of the factors which are the optimal regression model for the amount of telecommunications business and the relation between independent variables and dependent variable. Based on the final results, we propose several recommendations about how to improve telecommunication services and promote the economic development.

Spanning Tree Approach On The Snow Cleaning Problem

Snow cleaning is one of the important tasks in the winter time in Sweden. Every year government spends huge amount money for snow cleaning purpose. In this thesis we generate a shortest road network of the city and put the depots in different place of the city for snow cleaning. We generate shortest road network using minimum spanning tree algorithm and find the depots position using greedy heuristic. When snow is falling, vehicles start work from the depots and clean the snow all the road network of the city. We generate two types of model. Models are economic model and efficient model. Economic model provide good economical solution of the problem and it use less number of vehicles. Efficient model generate good efficient solution and it take less amount of time to clean the entire road network.

Brytmånens utformning vid trädfällning - Jämförande studier av böjmotstånd och gångjärnseffekt : Designing felling hinge in tree felling - Comparative studies of bending resistance and hinge effect

Vid trädfällning med motorsåg sparar man en så kallad brytmån som skall fungera som ett gång¬järn när trädet fälls. Om brytmånen går av tidigt finns en risk att trädet faller okontrolle¬rat. De rekommendationer som finns säger att brytmånens bredd skall göras proportionell mot trädets diameter. Genom att teoretiskt och praktiskt undersöka vilka krafter brytmånen utsätts för och vad den håller för har det varit möjligt att dra vissa slutsatser om hur en bra brytmån skall se ut. Ett viktigt resultat är att en bred brytmån (över 30-40 mm) är mycket trög att böja och inte fungerar i det avseendet att den går av redan vid små böjningar. Teoretiska be¬räkningar och praktiska försök visar att en relativt smal brytmån håller för belastningen vid rakt motlut även på stora träd. Som ny rekommendationen föreslås att brytmånens bredd inte bör vara mer än 30 mm. Av försöken kan man också dra slutsatsen att frusen ved är stel och brister tidigt, varför svår¬fällda träd inte bör fällas när veden är fryst.A felling hinge is used when felling trees by help of chain saw. If the hinge breaks early in the fall of the tree there is a great risk that the tree will fall without control. Present recommenda¬tions in Sweden say that the thickness of the felling hinge shall be made in proportion to the stem diameter. By use of theoretical and practical examinations of the forces stressing the felling hinge, and the strength of the wood itself, it has been possible to draw conclusions regarding the correct design of a felling hinge. One important result is that a thick felling hinge (over 30-40 mm) is very hard to bend and does not work well as it looses most of its strength already at a small forward bending angel. Theoretical calculations and practical tests show that a relatively narrow felling hinge will manage very well the forces when felling trees with lean opposite to the felling direction even for large trees. Our new recommendation is that the thickness of the felling hinge in normal Swedish conditions should not exceed 30 mm. Through the studies it can also be seen that frozen, brittle wood breaks at small bending angels. For that reason particularly difficult trees not should be felled when the wood is frozen.

Kraftutveckling för manuella trädfällningsredskap : Force development for manual tree felling tools

The objective with this study has been to build general models of the mechanics in tree felling with chain-saw and to compare felling torque for different tools. The theoretical models are completed and validated with a comparative study. The study includes a great number of felling tools of which some are used with different methods. Felling torque was measured using a naturally like measuring arrangement where a tree is cut at about 3.7 m height and then anchored with a dynamometer to a tree opposite to the felling direction. Notch and felling cut was made as ordinary with exception that the hinge was made extra thin to reduce bending resistance. The tree was consequently not felled during the trials and several combinations of felling tools and individuals could be used on the same tree.The results show big differences between tools, methods and persons. The differences were, however, not general, but could vary depending on conditions (first of all tree diameters). Tools and methods that push or pull on the stem are little affected by the size of the tree, while tools that press on the stump are very much dependent of a large stump-diameter. Hand force asserted on a simple pole is consequently a powerful tool on small trees. For trees of medium size there are several alternative methods with different sizes and brands of felling levers and wedges. Larger and more ungainly tools and methods like tree pusher, winch, etc. develop very high felling torque on all tree sizes. On large trees also the felling wedge and especially the use of several wedges together develop very high felling torque.

Quality management for vital forest tree seedlings : Final report, Project no: P33854-1

The work concerns development of a prototype molecular tests to identify vitality status of conifer seedlings. The work is done by NSure, Holland, Dalarna University and SUAS. In case for spruce, a successful validation experiment has been performed to validate the identified frost tolerance and vitality genes. Multiple indicators were identified that can be used to either reinforce the existing ColdnSure test, but also for development of a vitality test. The identified frost tolerance and vitality genes for pine still need to be validated. NSure together with Dalarna University aim to perform a validation next season. Multiple LN indicators were identified in spruce that can be used to determine the effectiveness of a LN treatment, but they are not yet validated. In spruce and pine hardly any scientific research is performed to study the effect of a LN treatment, particularly not at molecular level. Therefore NSure together with Dalarna Research Station want to apply for a project. Within this project, we would be able to develop the tests further.

A Note on Proxy Variables and Instrument Variable Regression

This is a note about proxy variables and instruments for identification of structural parameters in regression models. We have experienced that in the econometric textbooks these two issues are treated separately, although in practice these two concepts are very often combined. Usually, proxy variables are inserted in instrument variable regressions with the motivation they are exogenous. Implicitly meaning they are exogenous in a reduced form model and not in a structural model. Actually if these variables are exogenous they should be redundant in the structural model, e.g. IQ as a proxy for ability. Valid proxies reduce unexplained variation and increases the efficiency of the estimator of the structural parameter of interest. This is especially important in situations when the instrument is weak. With a simple example we demonstrate what is required of a proxy and an instrument when they are combined. It turns out that when a researcher has a valid instrument the requirements on the proxy variable is weaker than if no such instrument exists