Evaluating Projects in a Dynamic Economy: Some New Envelope Results

This paper is concerned with the modern theory of social cost-benefit analysis in a dynamic economy. The theory emphasizes the role of a comprehensive, forward-looking, dynamic welfare index within the period of the project rather than that of a project's long-term consequences. However, what constitutes such a welfare index remains controversial in the recent literature. In this paper, we attempt to shed light on the issue by deriving three equivalent cost-benefit rules for evaluating a small project. In particular, we show that the direct change in net national product (NNP) qualifies as a convenient welfare index without involving any other induced side effects. The project evaluation criterion thus becomes the present discounted value of the direct changes in NNP over the project period. We also illustrate the application of this theory in a few stylized examples.

Road Design for Future Maintenance : Life-cycle Cost Analyses for Road Barriers

The cost of a road construction over its service life is a function of design, quality of construction as well as maintenance strategies and operations. An optimal life-cycle cost for a road requires evaluations of the above mentioned components. Unfortunately, road designers often neglect a very important aspect, namely, the possibility to perform future maintenance activities. Focus is mainly directed towards other aspects such as investment costs, traffic safety, aesthetic appearance, regional development and environmental effects. This doctoral thesis presents the results of a research project aimed to increase consideration of road maintenance aspects in the planning and design process. The following subgoals were established: Identify the obstacles that prevent adequate consideration of future maintenance during the road planning and design process; and Examine optimisation of life-cycle costs as an approach towards increased efficiency during the road planning and design process. The research project started with a literature review aimed at evaluating the extent to which maintenance aspects are considered during road planning and design as an improvement potential for maintenance efficiency. Efforts made by road authorities to increase efficiency, especially maintenance efficiency, were evaluated. The results indicated that all the evaluated efforts had one thing in common, namely ignorance of the interrelationship between geometrical road design and maintenance as an effective tool to increase maintenance efficiency. Focus has mainly been on improving operating practises and maintenance procedures. This fact might also explain why some efforts to increase maintenance efficiency have been less successful. An investigation was conducted to identify the problems and difficulties, which obstruct due consideration of maintainability during the road planning and design process. A method called “Change Analysis” was used to analyse data collected during interviews with experts in road design and maintenance. The study indicated a complex combination of problems which result in inadequate consideration of maintenance aspects when planning and designing roads. The identified problems were classified into six categories: insufficient consulting, insufficient knowledge, regulations and specifications without consideration of maintenance aspects, insufficient planning and design activities, inadequate organisation and demands from other authorities. Several urgent needs for changes to eliminate these problems were identified. One of the problems identified in the above mentioned study as an obstacle for due consideration of maintenance aspects during road design was the absence of a model for calculating life-cycle costs for roads. Because of this lack of knowledge, the research project focused on implementing a new approach for calculating and analysing life-cycle costs for roads with emphasis on the relationship between road design and road maintainability. Road barriers were chosen as an example. The ambition is to develop this approach to cover other road components at a later stage. A study was conducted to quantify repair rates for barriers and associated repair costs as one of the major maintenance costs for road barriers. A method called “Case Study Research Method” was used to analyse the effect of several factors on barrier repairs costs, such as barrier type, road type, posted speed and seasonal effect. The analyses were based on documented data associated with 1625 repairs conducted in four different geographical regions in Sweden during 2006. A model for calculation of average repair costs per vehicle kilometres was created. Significant differences in the barrier repair costs were found between the studied barrier types. In another study, the injuries associated with road barrier collisions and the corresponding influencing factors were analysed. The analyses in this study were based on documented data from actual barrier collisions between 2005 and 2008 in Sweden. The result was used to calculate the cost for injuries associated with barrier collisions as a part of the socio-economic cost for road barriers. The results showed significant differences in the number of injuries associated with collisions with different barrier types. To calculate and analyse life-cycle costs for road barriers a new approach was developed based on a method called “Activity-based Life-cycle Costing”. By modelling uncertainties, the presented approach gives a possibility to identify and analyse factors crucial for optimising life-cycle costs. The study showed a great potential to increase road maintenance efficiency through road design. It also showed that road components with low investment costs might not be the best choice when including maintenance and socio-economic aspects. The difficulties and problems faced during the collection of data for calculating life-cycle costs for road barriers indicated a great need for improving current data collecting and archiving procedures. The research focused on Swedish road planning and design. However, the conclusions can be applied to other Nordic countries, where weather conditions and road design practices are similar. The general methodological approaches used in this research project may be applied also to other studies.

Trycksaker till Utvecklingshuset och Skönhetsbanken

A number of publications has been produced for two companies in Dalarna, Utvecklingshuset andSkönhetsbanken.Utvecklingshuset is working, among other things, with stressyndroms and by treating crises. Theirpublications consist of a number of product sheets, a folder and a brochure. They want to use the publicationsfor information to their customers.Skönhetsbanken is a beauty saloon who will have a brochure to mediate the services they can offer.Photos have been taken, existing and for this purpose written texts have been used.The softwares Adobe Photoshop 7.0 and Adobe Indesign 2.0 have been used for all publications andthe work with producing these has been satisfactory.The effect of a good cooperation with the companies has resulted in that they are pleased with thepublications and feel that they have been part of the end of the results.All of the publications have been or will be printed with digital printing methods, which is the reasonfor the choice of the litterature survey.The survey deals with, among other things, how the digital press works, which papers that are suitable,economic aspects and what a graphic designer should have in mind when it comes to graphic productsthat will be printed with digital printing methods.

Simple Question, Complex Answer : Pathways Towards a 50% Decrease in Building Energy Use

Addressing building energy use is a pressing issue for building sector decision makers across Europe. In Sweden, some regions have adopted a target of reducing energy use in buildings by 50% until 2050. However, building codes currently do not support as ambitious objectives as these, and novel approaches to addressing energy use in buildings from a regional perspective are called for. The purpose of this licentiate thesis was to provide a deeper understanding of most relevant issues with regard to energy use in buildings from a broad perspective and to suggest pathways towards reaching the long-term savings objective. Current trends in building sector structure and energy use point to detached houses constructed before 1981 playing a key role in the energy transition, especially in the rural areas of Sweden. In the Swedish county of Dalarna, which was used as a study area in this thesis, these houses account for almost 70% of the residential heating demand. Building energy simulations of eight sample houses from county show that there is considerable techno-economic potential for energy savings in these houses, but not quite enough to reach the 50% savings objective. Two case studies from rural Sweden show that savings well beyond 50% are achievable, both when access to capital and use of high technology are granted and when they are not. However, on a broader scale both direct and indirect rebound effects will have to be expected, which calls for more refined approaches to energy savings. Furthermore, research has shown that the techno-economic potential is in fact never realised, not even in the most well-designed intervention programmes, due to the inherent complexity of human behaviour with respect to energy use. This is not taken account of in neither current nor previous Swedish energy use legislation. Therefore an approach that considers the technical prerequisites, economic aspects and the perspective of the many home owners, based on Community-Based Social Marketing methodology, is suggested as a way forward towards reaching the energy savings target.

PANA V : Evaluation of a Literacy Project

PANA V Evaluation of a Literacy ProjectSUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONSThis evaluation set out to explore the impact of the literacy work carried out through PANA V. It focussed on clarifying effects such as empowerment and poverty reduction in relation to the civil society. Two specific objectives were to evaluate the methodological approach and the didactic materials and to evaluate the sustainability of the project.Although the focus of the evaluation has been PANA V, the project has been evaluated in its context, as one in a series of five projects located in Rwanda ten years after the war and genocide. The conclusion will consider future plans in this field.The evaluator has striven to create a holistic picture of the effects of the project, although the given time for the evaluation was short. Only three weeks were spent in the field study and only ten days in the actual field. Although there were some organisational and logistic problems, as is common when carrying out a study like this in a poor country, many literacy sites were visited and quite many participators were interviewed. The overall impression from the study is overwhelmingly positive. So many people commit themselves in this task of teaching Rwandans reading, writing and numeracy. Despite harsh conditions learners strive to learn and group leaders devote themselves to the task. Many leaders on different levels try their very best to manage their difficult and demanding task. The main objective was to explore the impact of the project on poverty reduction, particularly on empowerment and strategies for everyday life. Women were to be regarded particularly. From the results it is clear that the project has a strong, positive impact both on poverty reduction and empowerment of marginalised groups. Among those who have benefited from the alphabetisation are mainly women. Unfortunately, when it comes to leaders in PANA, who may also be said to have benefited from the project, only a small minority is women. This is something that is recommended that it be reconsidered inside the organisation. As a majority of the targeted learners are women, and as the economic and social situation of women in Rwanda is generally weak, this is a question that I recommend the Pentesostal church and ADEPR to look particularly into. With many women being single breadwinners of their households, it is important that also women get access to positions that may bring benefits of different kind.It is also clear that the project has positive effects for the civil society. In the present situation in Rwanda, during the process of reconciliation and rapid progress, basic education for the poor majority is a democratic issue. In a country with a plethora of internet-cafés in the capital and a small minority that use cars and mobile-telephones to communicate nation-wide, it is of outmost importance that the majority acquires basic education, of which literacy is a central part. To strengthen the civil society in Rwanda literacy is important. One central issue is then that Rwanda develops toward becoming a country where literacy is used for the benefit of the citizens and it is a democratic issue that all citizens get an opportunity to participate. Crucial for this is that strong efforts are put into primary schools nation-wide. Literacy projects for adults, like PANA, may only complement these efforts, but they constitute important and necessary complements. Other relevant ways to promote literacy are campaigns in Radio and TV and through cultural events such as festivals, music and theatre. News papers, magazines and books are natural parts of such campaigns as well as adult education. As stated under the results not much can be said about the didactics in this evaluation. On the whole the methodology and the materials fill their function well and receive a high reputation. As people learn to read and write under very simple conditions, obviously the approach is appropriate. A few suggestions may be given from the study:•Focus groups leaders’ attention on clearness, that they show very clearly what is to be read. Good structuring is probably of great importance for many learners.•Make clear what is tested in the tests and consider the possibility to use a holistic test that would be more congruent with the methodology. The possibility to use only one grade, pass, would enable a more practical test, such as reading a short, relevant text, writing something relevant and solving practical mathematic problems. Avoid tests that demand school knowledge.•Avoid using methaphors such as “fight against illiteracy” and connections between illiteracy/literacy and darkness/light. It is not true that illiteracy causes bad things and that literacy only brings good. •Be prepared that it may be more difficult in the future to achieve the goals as it may be the case that the early learners where the ones who achieved easily. The goal of “literacy in six month” in PANA will probably hold only for some learners but also those who do not manage in six months need literacy skills.A third objective was to secure sustainability. As for sustainability of the project in itself, and of the literacy process, the main conclusion is that there is a good potential. The commitment and devotedness among many involved in PANA proves good. One weakness is individual leaders in ADEPR who do not see this as an important task for the Pentecostal church in Rwanda. Other weaknesses are the unwillingness to mention explicitly the wish, for example among group leaders, to get some kind of incentive and the fear of loosing believers by cooperation with other organisations. A higher degree of transparency in this issue would probably solve some irritations and tensions.As for the sustainability of the literacy skills much may be done to improve. The acquired skills seem to be comparably relevant. The level achieved, and the level tested, may be defined as basic literacy skills, consisting of basic reading, writing and numeracy skills. However, these skills are very restricted and there is a high risk that the skills will decline, which means that there is a high risk that people will forget how to read and write because of lack of exercising. From these conclusions a few suggestions for future development will be given.

Economic Evaluation of a Solar Charged Thermal Energy Store for Space Heating

A thermal energy store corrects the misalignment of heating demand in the winter relative to solar thermal energy gathered in the summer. This thesis reviews the viability of a solar charged hot water tank thermal energy store for a school at latitude 56.25N, longitude -120.85W