Modeling and forecasting long-term natural gas (NG) consumption in Iran, using particle swarm optimization (PSO)

The gradual changes in the world development have brought energy issues back into high profile. An ongoing challenge for countries around the world is to balance the development gains against its effects on the environment. The energy management is the key factor of any sustainable development program. All the aspects of development in agriculture, power generation, social welfare and industry in Iran are crucially related to the energy and its revenue. Forecasting end-use natural gas consumption is an important Factor for efficient system operation and a basis for planning decisions. In this thesis, particle swarm optimization (PSO) used to forecast long run natural gas consumption in Iran. Gas consumption data in Iran for the previous 34 years is used to predict the consumption for the coming years. Four linear and nonlinear models proposed and six factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Population, National Income (NI), Temperature, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and yearly Natural Gas (NG) demand investigated.

Nya utmanare – nya strategier? : Etablerade partier bemöter ny konkurrens

The purpose of this study is to examine the strategic choice of mainstream parties in relation to the competition of voters posed by a niche party and their most important issue, in this case radicalist rightwing populists and the migration issue. The study uses a comparative approach to examine the mainstream parties Social Democrats and Moderates reaction to the niche parties New Democracy 1991-1994 and Sweden Democrats 2010-2015. Using Meguid´s PSO-theory and by performing an qualitative analyse of the parties rhetoric and political suggestions in the parliamentary debates as well as in government bills and reservations in committee reports, the study aims to describe mainstream parties position on the issue and if and how they change position and strategy. The results of the study shows that both mainstream parties over all applies an adversarial strategy, aiming to maintain distance to the niche party and its position but with time and due to changes in the political environment, changes in position and strategy takes place and the mainstream parties applies a slightly more accommodative strategy.

Nya utmanare – nya strategier? : Etablerade partier bemöter ny konkurrens

The purpose of this study is to examine the strategic choice of mainstream parties in relation to the competition of voters posed by a niche party and their most important issue, in this case radicalist rightwing populists and the migration issue. The study uses a comparative approach to examine the mainstream parties Social Democrats and Moderates reaction to the niche parties New Democracy 1991-1994 and Sweden Democrats 2010-2015. Using Meguid´s PSO-theory and by performing an qualitative analyse of the parties rhetoric and political suggestions in the parliamentary debates as well as in government bills and reservations in committee reports, the study aims to describe mainstream parties position on the issue and if and how they change position and strategy. The results of the study shows that both mainstream parties over all applies an adversarial strategy, aiming to maintain distance to the niche party and its position but with time and due to changes in the political environment, changes in position and strategy takes place and the mainstream parties applies a slightly more accommodative strategy.