Modeling and forecasting long-term natural gas (NG) consumption in Iran, using particle swarm optimization (PSO)

The gradual changes in the world development have brought energy issues back into high profile. An ongoing challenge for countries around the world is to balance the development gains against its effects on the environment. The energy management is the key factor of any sustainable development program. All the aspects of development in agriculture, power generation, social welfare and industry in Iran are crucially related to the energy and its revenue. Forecasting end-use natural gas consumption is an important Factor for efficient system operation and a basis for planning decisions. In this thesis, particle swarm optimization (PSO) used to forecast long run natural gas consumption in Iran. Gas consumption data in Iran for the previous 34 years is used to predict the consumption for the coming years. Four linear and nonlinear models proposed and six factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Population, National Income (NI), Temperature, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and yearly Natural Gas (NG) demand investigated.

Automating condition monitoring of vegetation on railway trackbeds and embankments

Vegetation growing on railway trackbeds and embankments present potential problems. The presence of vegetation threatens the safety of personnel inspecting the railway infrastructure. In addition vegetation growth clogs the ballast and results in inadequate track drainage which in turn could lead to the collapse of the railway embankment. Assessing vegetation within the realm of railway maintenance is mainly carried out manually by making visual inspections along the track. This is done either on-site or by watching videos recorded by maintenance vehicles mainly operated by the national railway administrative body. A need for the automated detection and characterisation of vegetation on railways (a subset of vegetation control/management) has been identified in collaboration with local railway maintenance subcontractors and Trafikverket, the Swedish Transport Administration (STA). The latter is responsible for long-term planning of the transport system for all types of traffic, as well as for the building, operation and maintenance of public roads and railways. The purpose of this research project was to investigate how vegetation can be measured and quantified by human raters and how machine vision can automate the same process. Data were acquired at railway trackbeds and embankments during field measurement experiments. All field data (such as images) in this thesis work was acquired on operational, lightly trafficked railway tracks, mostly trafficked by goods trains. Data were also generated by letting (human) raters conduct visual estimates of plant cover and/or count the number of plants, either on-site or in-house by making visual estimates of the images acquired from the field experiments. Later, the degree of reliability of(human) raters’ visual estimates were investigated and compared against machine vision algorithms. The overall results of the investigations involving human raters showed inconsistency in their estimates, and are therefore unreliable. As a result of the exploration of machine vision, computational methods and algorithms enabling automatic detection and characterisation of vegetation along railways were developed. The results achieved in the current work have shown that the use of image data for detecting vegetation is indeed possible and that such results could form the base for decisions regarding vegetation control. The performance of the machine vision algorithm which quantifies the vegetation cover was able to process 98% of the im-age data. Investigations of classifying plants from images were conducted in in order to recognise the specie. The classification rate accuracy was 95%.Objective measurements such as the ones proposed in thesis offers easy access to the measurements to all the involved parties and makes the subcontracting process easier i.e., both the subcontractors and the national railway administration are given the same reference framework concerning vegetation before signing a contract, which can then be crosschecked post maintenance.A very important issue which comes with an increasing ability to recognise species is the maintenance of biological diversity. Biological diversity along the trackbeds and embankments can be mapped, and maintained, through better and robust monitoring procedures. Continuously monitoring the state of vegetation along railways is highly recommended in order to identify a need for maintenance actions, and in addition to keep track of biodiversity. The computational methods or algorithms developed form the foundation of an automatic inspection system capable of objectively supporting manual inspections, or replacing manual inspections.

Language and Identity at School and at Home : Language Shift among Mennonites in Paraguay

This essay has investigated the question of an ongoing language shift from Plattdeutsch and German to Spanish among the Mennonites in Paraguay and the role of the school in this process. The aims of the study were to compare the use of languages among the Mennonites in Asuncion and in the Menno colony and to identify the importance that parents give to the languages and to compare this with a school leader perspective. The aim was also to identify factors that influence the language shift and identify the influence that the shift excerpts on Mennonite values and identity. The results are based on my own observations, interviews with Mennonite women and interviews with key informants who have insight into the school policy issues. The outcome may be used as a basis for educational and language planning. There is a need to consciously sit down and re-define the Mennonite identity and to make the community and the school aware of their responsibility in language maintenance.

Mått för att mäta kodkvalitet undersystemutvecklingsprocessen

Viljan att hålla en hög kvalitet på den kod som skrivs vid utveckling av system och applikationerär inte något nytt i utvecklingsvärlden. Flera större företag använder sig av olika mått för attmäta kvaliteten på koden i sina system med målet att hålla en hög driftsäkerhet.Trafikverket är en statlig myndighet som ansvarar för driften av bland annat de system somhåller igång Sveriges järnvägsnät. Eftersom systemen fyller en viktig del i att säkra driften ochse till att tågpositioner, planering av avgångar och hantering av driftstörningar fungerar dygnetrunt för hela landet anser de att det är viktigt att sträva efter att hålla en hög kvalitet påsystemen.Syftet med det här examensarbetet var att ta reda på vilka mått som kan vara möjliga attanvända under systemutvecklingsprocessen för att mäta kvaliteten på kod och hur måtten kananvändas för att öka kvaliteten på IT-lösningar. Detta för att redan på ett tidigt stadie kunnamäta kvaliteten på den kod som skrivs i både befintliga och nyutvecklade system.Studien är en fallstudie som utfördes på Trafikverket, de olika måtten som undersöktes varcode coverage, nivån på maintainability index och antalet inrapporterade incidenter för varjesystem. Mätningar utfördes på sju av Trafikverkets system som i analysen jämfördes motantalet rapporterade incidenter. Intervjuer utfördes för att ge en bild över hur arbetssättet vidutveckling kan påverka kvaliteten. Genom litteraturstudier kom det fram ett mått som inte kundeanvändas praktiskt i det här fallet men är högst intressant, detta är cyclomatic complexity somfinns som en del av maintainability index men som även separat påverkar möjligheten att skrivaenhetstest.Resultaten av studien visar att måtten är användbara för ändamålet men bör inte användassom enskilda mått för att mäta kvalitet eftersom de fyller olika funktioner. Det är viktigt attarbetssättet runt utveckling genomförs enligt en tydlig struktur och att utvecklarna både harkunskap om hur man arbetar med enhetstest och följer kodprinciper för strukturen. Tydligakopplingar mellan nivån på code coverage och inflödet av incidenter kunde ses i de undersöktasystemen där hög code coverage ger ett lägre inflöde av incidenter. Ingen korrelation mellanmaintainability index och incidenter kunde hittas.