Modeling and forecasting long-term natural gas (NG) consumption in Iran, using particle swarm optimization (PSO)

The gradual changes in the world development have brought energy issues back into high profile. An ongoing challenge for countries around the world is to balance the development gains against its effects on the environment. The energy management is the key factor of any sustainable development program. All the aspects of development in agriculture, power generation, social welfare and industry in Iran are crucially related to the energy and its revenue. Forecasting end-use natural gas consumption is an important Factor for efficient system operation and a basis for planning decisions. In this thesis, particle swarm optimization (PSO) used to forecast long run natural gas consumption in Iran. Gas consumption data in Iran for the previous 34 years is used to predict the consumption for the coming years. Four linear and nonlinear models proposed and six factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Population, National Income (NI), Temperature, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and yearly Natural Gas (NG) demand investigated.

Residual-based test for Nonlinear Cointegration with application in PPPs

Nested by linear cointegration first provided in Granger (1981), the definition of nonlinear cointegration is presented in this paper. Sequentially, a nonlinear cointegrated economic system is introduced. What we mainly study is testing no nonlinear cointegration against nonlinear cointegration by residual-based test, which is ready for detecting stochastic trend in nonlinear autoregression models. We construct cointegrating regression along with smooth transition components from smooth transition autoregression model. Some properties are analyzed and discussed during the estimation procedure for cointegrating regression, including description of transition variable. Autoregression of order one is considered as the model of estimated residuals for residual-based test, from which the teststatistic is obtained. Critical values and asymptotic distribution of the test statistic that we request for different cointegrating regressions with different sample sizes are derived based on Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed theoretical methods and models are illustrated by an empirical example, comparing the results with linear cointegration application in Hamilton (1994). It is concluded that there exists nonlinear cointegration in our system in the final results.

INVENTORY CONTROL SYSTEM : Optimization of production system and reliability

The main idea of this research to solve the problem of inventory management for the paper industry SPM PVT limited. The aim of this research was to find a methodology by which the inventory of raw material could be kept at minimum level by means of buffer stock level.The main objective then lies in finding the minimum level of buffer stock according to daily consumption of raw material, finding the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) reorders point and how much order will be placed in a year to control the shortage of raw material.In this project, we discuss continuous review model (Deterministic EOQ models) that includes the probabilistic demand directly in the formulation. According to the formula, we see the reorder point and the order up to model. The problem was tackled mathematically as well as simulation modeling was used where mathematically tractable solution was not possible.The simulation modeling was done by Awesim software for developing the simulation network. This simulation network has the ability to predict the buffer stock level based on variable consumption of raw material and lead-time. The data collection for this simulation network is taken from the industrial engineering personnel and the departmental studies of the concerned factory. At the end, we find the optimum level of order quantity, reorder point and order days.

Testing common nonlinear features in vector nonlinear autoregressive models

This paper studies a special class of vector smooth-transition autoregressive (VSTAR) models that contains common nonlinear features (CNFs), for which we proposed a triangular representation and developed a procedure of testing CNFs in a VSTAR model. We first test a unit root against a stable STAR process for each individual time series and then examine whether CNFs exist in the system by Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test if unit root is rejected in the first step. The LM test has standard Chi-squared asymptotic distribution. The critical values of our unit root tests and small-sample properties of the F form of our LM test are studied by Monte Carlo simulations. We illustrate how to test and model CNFs using the monthly growth of consumption and income data of United States (1985:1 to 2011:11).

Common Features in Vector Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis consists of four manuscripts in the area of nonlinear time series econometrics on topics of testing, modeling and forecasting nonlinear common features. The aim of this thesis is to develop new econometric contributions for hypothesis testing and forecasting in these area. Both stationary and nonstationary time series are concerned. A definition of common features is proposed in an appropriate way to each class. Based on the definition, a vector nonlinear time series model with common features is set up for testing for common features. The proposed models are available for forecasting as well after being well specified. The first paper addresses a testing procedure on nonstationary time series. A class of nonlinear cointegration, smooth-transition (ST) cointegration, is examined. The ST cointegration nests the previously developed linear and threshold cointegration. An Ftypetest for examining the ST cointegration is derived when stationary transition variables are imposed rather than nonstationary variables. Later ones drive the test standard, while the former ones make the test nonstandard. This has important implications for empirical work. It is crucial to distinguish between the cases with stationary and nonstationary transition variables so that the correct test can be used. The second and the fourth papers develop testing approaches for stationary time series. In particular, the vector ST autoregressive (VSTAR) model is extended to allow for common nonlinear features (CNFs). These two papers propose a modeling procedure and derive tests for the presence of CNFs. Including model specification using the testing contributions above, the third paper considers forecasting with vector nonlinear time series models and extends the procedures available for univariate nonlinear models. The VSTAR model with CNFs and the ST cointegration model in the previous papers are exemplified in detail,and thereafter illustrated within two corresponding macroeconomic data sets.

System Integration of PV/T Collectors in Solar Cooling Systems

The demand for cooling and air-conditioning of building is increasingly ever growing. This increase is mostly due to population and economic growth in developing countries, and also desire for a higher quality of thermal comfort. Increase in the use of conventional cooling systems results in larger carbon footprint and more greenhouse gases considering their higher electricity consumption, and it occasionally creates peaks in electricity demand from power supply grid. Solar energy as a renewable energy source is an alternative to drive the cooling machines since the cooling load is generally high when solar radiation is high. This thesis examines the performance of PV/T solar collector manufactured by Solarus company in a solar cooling system for an office building in Dubai, New Delhi, Los Angeles and Cape Town. The study is carried out by analyzing climate data and the requirements for thermal comfort in office buildings. Cooling systems strongly depend on weather conditions and local climate. Cooling load of buildings depend on many parameters such as ambient temperature, indoor comfort temperature, solar gain to the building and internal gains including; number of occupant and electrical devices. The simulations were carried out by selecting a suitable thermally driven chiller and modeling it with PV/T solar collector in Polysun software. Fractional primary energy saving and solar fraction were introduced as key figures of the project to evaluate the performance of cooling system. Several parametric studies and simulations were determined according to PV/T aperture area and hot water storage tank volume. The fractional primary energy saving analysis revealed that thermally driven chillers, particularly adsorption chillers are not suitable to be utilizing in small size of solar cooling systems in hot and tropic climates such as Dubai and New Delhi. Adsorption chillers require more thermal energy to meet the cooling load in hot and dry climates. The adsorption chillers operate in their full capacity and in higher coefficient of performance when they run in a moderate climate since they can properly reject the exhaust heat. The simulation results also indicated that PV/T solar collector have higher efficiency in warmer climates, however it requires a larger size of PV/T collectors to supply the thermally driven chillers for providing cooling in hot climates. Therefore using an electrical chiller as backup gives much better results in terms of primary energy savings, since PV/T electrical production also can be used for backup electrical chiller in a net metering mechanism.