Testing linear cointegration against smooth-transition cointegration

This paper studies a smooth-transition (ST) type cointegration. The proposed ST cointegration allows for regime switching structure in a cointegrated system. It nests the linear cointegration developed by Engle and Granger (1987) and the threshold cointegration studied by Balke and Fomby (1997). We develop F-type tests to examine linear cointegration against ST cointegration in ST-type cointegrating regression models with or without time trends. The null asymptotic distributions of the tests are derived with stationary transition variables in ST cointegrating regression models. And it is shown that our tests have nonstandard limiting distributions expressed in terms of standard Brownian motion when regressors are pure random walks, while have standard asymptotic distributions when regressors contain random walks with nonzero drift. Finite-sample distributions of those tests are studied by Monto Carlo simulations. The small-sample performance of the tests states that our F-type tests have a better power when the system contains ST cointegration than when the system is linearly cointegrated. An empirical example for the purchasing power parity (PPP) data (monthly US dollar, Italy lira and dollar-lira exchange rate from 1973:01 to 1989:10) is illustrated by applying the testing procedures in this paper. It is found that there is no linear cointegration in the system, but there exits the ST-type cointegration in the PPP data.

Applicatiion of Almost ideal demand system for a pharmaceutical

This thesis is an application of the Almost Ideal Demand System approach of Deaton and Muellbauer,1980, for a particular pharmaceutical, Citalopram, in which GORMAN´s (1971) multi-stage budgeting approach is applied basically since it is one of the most useful approach in estimating demand for differentiated products. Citalopram is an antidepressant drug that is used in the treatment of major depression. As for most other pharmaceuticals whose the patent has expired, there exist branded and generic versions of Citalopram. This paper is aimed to define its demand system with two stage models for the branded version and five generic versions, and to show whether generic versions are able to compete with the branded version. I calculated the own price elasticities, and it made me possible to compare and make a conclusion about the consumers’ choices over the brand and generic drugs. Even though the models need for being developed with some additional variables, estimation results of models and uncompensated price elasticities indicated that the branded version has still power in the market, and generics are able to compete with lower prices. One important point that has to be taken into consideration is that the Swedish pharmaceutical market faced a reform on October 1, 2002, that aims to make consumer better informed about the price and decrease the overall expenditures for pharmaceuticals. Since there were not significantly enough generic sales to take into calculation before the reform, my paper covers sales after the reform.

Elbesparing med pelletkaminer och solvärme i direktelvärmda småhus

The aim of this study was to investigate how electricallyheated houses can be converted to using wood pellet and solarheating. There are a large number of wood pellet stoves on themarket. Many stoves have a water jacket, which gives anopportunity to distribute the heat to domestic hot water and aradiator heating system. Three typical Swedish houses with electric resistanceheating have been studied. Fourteen different system conceptsusing wood pellet stoves and solar heating systems have beenevaluated. The systems and the houses have been simulated indetail using TRNSYS. The houses have been divided in up to 10different zones and heat transfer by air circulation throughdoorways and open doors have been simulated. The pellet stoveswere simulated using a recently developed TRNSYS component,which models the start- and stop phases, emissions and thedynamic behaviour of the stoves. The model also calculates theCO-emissions. Simulations were made with one stove without awater jacket and two stoves with different fractions of thegenerated heat distributed in the water circuit. Simulations show that the electricity savings using a pelletstove are greatly affected by the house plan, the systemchoice, if the internal doors are open or closed and thedesired level of comfort. Installing a stove with awater-jacket connected to a radiator system and a hot waterstorage has the advantage that heat can be transferred todomestic hot water and be distributed to other rooms. Suchsystems lead to greater electricity savings, especially inhouses having a traditional layout. It was found that not allrooms needed radiators and that it was more effective in mostcases t use a stove with a higher fraction of the heatdistributed by the water circuit. The economic investigation shows that installing a woodpellet stove without a water jacket gives the lowest totalenergy- and capital costs in the house with an open plan (fortoday's energy prices and the simulated comfort criteria). Inthe houses with a traditional layout a pellet stove givesslightly higher costs than the reference house having onlyelectrical resistance heating due to the fact that less heatingcan be replaced. The concepts including stoves with a waterjacket all give higher costs than the reference system, but theconcept closest to be economical is a system with a bufferstore, a stove with a high fraction of the heat distributed bythe water circuit, a new water radiator heating system and asolar collector. Losses from stoves can be divided into: flue gas lossesincluding leakage air flow when the stove is not in operation;losses during start and stop phases; and losses due to a highair factor. An increased efficiency of the stoves is importantboth from a private economical point of view, but also from theperspective that there can be a lack of bio fuel in the nearfuture also in Sweden. From this point of view it is alsoimportant to utilize as much solar heat as possible. Theutilization of solar heat is low in the simulated systems,depending on the lack of space for a large buffer store. The simulations have shown that the annual efficiency ismuch lower that the nominal efficiency at full power. Thesimulations have also shown that changing the control principlefor the stove can improve efficiency and reduce theCO-emissions. Today's most common control principle for stovesis the on/off control, which results in many starts and stopsand thereby high CO-emissions. A more advanced control varyingthe heating rate from maximum to minimum to keep a constantroom temperature reduces the number of starts and stops andthereby the emissions. Also the efficiency can be higher withsuch a control, and the room temperature will be kept at a moreconstant temperature providing a higher comfort.

Using locally available components and local knowledge to build sustainable stand-alone power systems

The aim of this paper is to point out benefits as well as disadvantages associated with the use of locally available, not necessarily standardized, components in stand-alone electrical power systems at rural locations. Advantages and challenges arising when the direct involvement in design, construction and maintenance of the power system is reserved to people based in the area of implementation are discussed. The presented research is centered around one particular PV-diesel hybrid system in Tanzania; a case study in which technical and social aspects related to the particular power system are studied.

Photovoltaic System Design for a Contaminated Area in Falun – Comparison of South and East- West Layout

In this thesis the solar part of a large grid-connected photovoltaic system design has been done. The main purpose was to size and optimize the system and to present figures helping to evaluate the prospective project rationality, which can potentially be constructed on a contaminated area in Falun. The methodology consisted in PV market study and component selection, site analysis and defining suitable area for solar installation; and system configuration optimization based on PVsyst simulations and Levelized Cost of Energy calculations. The procedure was mainly divided on two parts, preliminary and detailed sizing. In the first part the objective was complex, which included the investigation of the most profitable component combination and system optimization due to tilt and row distance. It was done by simulating systems with different components and orientations, which were sized for the same 100kW inverter in order to make a fair comparison. For each simulated result a simplified LCOE calculation procedure was applied. The main results of this part show that with the price of 0.43 €/Wp thin-film modules were the most cost effective solution for the case with a great advantage over crystalline type in terms of financial attractiveness. From the results of the preliminary study it was possible to select the optimal system configuration, which was used in the detailed sizing as a starting point. In this part the PVsyst simulations were run, which included full scale system design considering near shadings created by factory buildings. Additionally, more complex procedure of LCOE calculation has been used here considered insurances, maintenance, time value of money and possible cost reduction due to the system size. Two system options were proposed in final results; both cover the same area of 66000 m2. The first one represents an ordinary South faced design with 1.1 MW nominal power, which was optimized for the highest performance. According to PVsyst simulations, this system should produce 1108 MWh/year with the initial investment of 835,000 € and 0.056 €/kWh LCOE. The second option has an alternative East-West orientation, which allows to cover 80% of occupied ground and consequently have 6.6 MW PV nominal power. The system produces 5388 MWh/year costs about 4500,000 € and delivers electricity with the same price of 0.056 €/kWh. Even though the EW solution has 20% lower specific energy production, it benefits mainly from lower relative costs for inverters, mounting and annual maintenance expenses. After analyzing the performance results, among the two alternatives none of the systems showed a clear superiority so there was no optimal system proposed. Both, South and East-West solutions have own advantages and disadvantages in terms of energy production profile, configuration, installation and maintenance. Furthermore, the uncertainty due to cost figures assumptions restricted the results veracity.