A Microdata Analysis Approach to Transport Infrastructure Maintenance

Maintenance of transport infrastructure assets is widely advocated as the key in minimizing current and future costs of the transportation network. While effective maintenance decisions are often a result of engineering skills and practical knowledge, efficient decisions must also account for the net result over an asset's life-cycle. One essential aspect in the long term perspective of transport infrastructure maintenance is to proactively estimate maintenance needs. In dealing with immediate maintenance actions, support tools that can prioritize potential maintenance candidates are important to obtain an efficient maintenance strategy. This dissertation consists of five individual research papers presenting a microdata analysis approach to transport infrastructure maintenance. Microdata analysis is a multidisciplinary field in which large quantities of data is collected, analyzed, and interpreted to improve decision-making. Increased access to transport infrastructure data enables a deeper understanding of causal effects and a possibility to make predictions of future outcomes. The microdata analysis approach covers the complete process from data collection to actual decisions and is therefore well suited for the task of improving efficiency in transport infrastructure maintenance. Statistical modeling was the selected analysis method in this dissertation and provided solutions to the different problems presented in each of the five papers. In Paper I, a time-to-event model was used to estimate remaining road pavement lifetimes in Sweden. In Paper II, an extension of the model in Paper I assessed the impact of latent variables on road lifetimes; displaying the sections in a road network that are weaker due to e.g. subsoil conditions or undetected heavy traffic. The study in Paper III incorporated a probabilistic parametric distribution as a representation of road lifetimes into an equation for the marginal cost of road wear. Differentiated road wear marginal costs for heavy and light vehicles are an important information basis for decisions regarding vehicle miles traveled (VMT) taxation policies. In Paper IV, a distribution based clustering method was used to distinguish between road segments that are deteriorating and road segments that have a stationary road condition. Within railway networks, temporary speed restrictions are often imposed because of maintenance and must be addressed in order to keep punctuality. The study in Paper V evaluated the empirical effect on running time of speed restrictions on a Norwegian railway line using a generalized linear mixed model.

”En aktiemarknad för alla” : Integritet och marknadsomsorg i (själv)regleringen av den svenska värdepappersmarknaden

”A stock market for all”. Integrity and concern for the market in the (self-)regulation of the Swedish securities market This article deals with the transformation process that led to the substantial growth of the securities markets, and also led to a situation where Sweden became one of the leading countries when it comes to ordinary people investing in shares and mutual funds. The article discusses how social control and regulation of the market changed as a result of this process. A sudden and strong unanimity for knowledge tests in order for a stockbroker to be allowed to conduct brokerage, advisory services and asset management was the significant change in this transformation process. Knowledge tests were first introduced on a voluntary basis by the industry itself, but is now a mandatory requirement by the State. This article argues that the unanimity for knowledge tests best can be understood by studying the broadening of the financial markets. The broadening meant that more groups in society – with very varying capabilities – had started to place their assets in the security markets. They were encouraged to do so since this was considered to be the solution to the growing number of socioeconomic problems. This article is mainly based on market statistics and document analysis supplemented by interviews.

”Tacksamhet för att jag fick ett nytt liv” : En kvalitativ studie om återanpassningsstrategier efter avtjänat fängelsestraff

Intresset för kriminalitet och individerna bakom de kriminella handlingarna ökar i samhället och återges i media dagligen. Det är just individen bakom brottet, hen som fängslas och får avtjäna sitt straff som denna studie riktar sitt fokus på. När fängelsegrindarna öppnas och återinträdet till samhället blir ett faktum; Hur tar då dessa individer sig tillbaka till samhället för att åter bli en del av det? Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka vilka återanpassningsstrategier som frigivna använder sig av samt hur samhällets bemötande påverkar strategierna. Studien baseras på självbiografier skrivna av fyra författare som alla levt ett kriminellt liv och som sedermera avtjänat ett eller flera fängelsestraff. Resultatet visar att det finns flera anpassningsstrategier som tas i bruk. Däribland att söka hjälp och stöd hos familj, vänner eller andra sociala grupper. Vidare återfinns det i strävan efter en ”ny identitet” vilket ofta sker med hjälp av tro. Att sysselsätta sig, ge något tillbaka till samhället, visa sin kreativitet i syfte att återfå sin kredibilitet kan ses som strategier som leder fram till det slutliga målet, kredibiliteten. Slutligen kunde ett samband mellan samhällets bemötande och återanpassningsstrategierna utrönas. Ju mer negativt bemötandet är desto fler återanpassningsstrategier behövs och arbetet för att uppnå dem blir mer krävande. Givet blir då att ett bemötande som fyllts av uppmuntran till individens förändring medför att färre strategier behövs och risken för återfall blir mindre.

Improved Road Design for Future Maintenance - Analysis of Road Barrier Repair Costs

The cost of a road construction over its service life is a function of the design, quality of construction, maintenance strategies and maintenance operations. Unfortunately, designers often neglect a very important aspect which is the possibility to perform future maintenance activities. The focus is mainly on other aspects such as investment costs, traffic safety, aesthetic appearance, regional development and environmental effects. This licentiate thesis is a part of a Ph.D. project entitled “Road Design for lower maintenance costs” that aims to examine how the life-cycle costs can be optimized by selection of appropriate geometrical designs for the roads and their components. The result is expected to give a basis for a new method used in the road planning and design process using life-cycle cost analysis with particular emphasis on road maintenance. The project started with a review of literature with the intention to study conditions causing increased needs for road maintenance, the efforts made by the road authorities to satisfy those needs and the improvement potential by consideration of maintenance aspects during planning and design. An investigation was carried out to identify the problems which obstruct due consideration of maintenance aspects during the road planning and design process. This investigation focused mainly on the road planning and design process at the Swedish Road Administration. However, the road planning and design process in Denmark, Finland and Norway were also roughly evaluated to gain a broader knowledge about the research subject. The investigation was carried out in two phases: data collection and data analysis. Data was collected by semi-structured interviews with expert actors involved in planning, design and maintenance and by a review of design-related documents. Data analyses were carried out using a method called “Change Analysis”. This investigation revealed a complex combination of problems which result in inadequate consideration of maintenance aspects. Several urgent needs for changes to eliminate these problems were identified. Another study was carried out to develop a model for calculation of the repair costs for damages of different road barrier types and to analyse how factors such as road type, speed limits, barrier types, barrier placement, type of road section, alignment and seasonal effects affect the barrier damages and the associated repair costs. This study was carried out using a method called the “Case Study Research Method”. Data was collected from 1087 barrier repairs in two regional offices of the Swedish Road Administration, the Central Region and the Western Region. A table was established for both regions containing the repair cost per vehicle kilometre for different combinations of barrier types, road types and speed limits. This table can be used by the designers in the calculation of the life-cycle costs for different road barrier types.

Road Design for Future Maintenance : Life-cycle Cost Analyses for Road Barriers

The cost of a road construction over its service life is a function of design, quality of construction as well as maintenance strategies and operations. An optimal life-cycle cost for a road requires evaluations of the above mentioned components. Unfortunately, road designers often neglect a very important aspect, namely, the possibility to perform future maintenance activities. Focus is mainly directed towards other aspects such as investment costs, traffic safety, aesthetic appearance, regional development and environmental effects. This doctoral thesis presents the results of a research project aimed to increase consideration of road maintenance aspects in the planning and design process. The following subgoals were established: Identify the obstacles that prevent adequate consideration of future maintenance during the road planning and design process; and Examine optimisation of life-cycle costs as an approach towards increased efficiency during the road planning and design process. The research project started with a literature review aimed at evaluating the extent to which maintenance aspects are considered during road planning and design as an improvement potential for maintenance efficiency. Efforts made by road authorities to increase efficiency, especially maintenance efficiency, were evaluated. The results indicated that all the evaluated efforts had one thing in common, namely ignorance of the interrelationship between geometrical road design and maintenance as an effective tool to increase maintenance efficiency. Focus has mainly been on improving operating practises and maintenance procedures. This fact might also explain why some efforts to increase maintenance efficiency have been less successful. An investigation was conducted to identify the problems and difficulties, which obstruct due consideration of maintainability during the road planning and design process. A method called “Change Analysis” was used to analyse data collected during interviews with experts in road design and maintenance. The study indicated a complex combination of problems which result in inadequate consideration of maintenance aspects when planning and designing roads. The identified problems were classified into six categories: insufficient consulting, insufficient knowledge, regulations and specifications without consideration of maintenance aspects, insufficient planning and design activities, inadequate organisation and demands from other authorities. Several urgent needs for changes to eliminate these problems were identified. One of the problems identified in the above mentioned study as an obstacle for due consideration of maintenance aspects during road design was the absence of a model for calculating life-cycle costs for roads. Because of this lack of knowledge, the research project focused on implementing a new approach for calculating and analysing life-cycle costs for roads with emphasis on the relationship between road design and road maintainability. Road barriers were chosen as an example. The ambition is to develop this approach to cover other road components at a later stage. A study was conducted to quantify repair rates for barriers and associated repair costs as one of the major maintenance costs for road barriers. A method called “Case Study Research Method” was used to analyse the effect of several factors on barrier repairs costs, such as barrier type, road type, posted speed and seasonal effect. The analyses were based on documented data associated with 1625 repairs conducted in four different geographical regions in Sweden during 2006. A model for calculation of average repair costs per vehicle kilometres was created. Significant differences in the barrier repair costs were found between the studied barrier types. In another study, the injuries associated with road barrier collisions and the corresponding influencing factors were analysed. The analyses in this study were based on documented data from actual barrier collisions between 2005 and 2008 in Sweden. The result was used to calculate the cost for injuries associated with barrier collisions as a part of the socio-economic cost for road barriers. The results showed significant differences in the number of injuries associated with collisions with different barrier types. To calculate and analyse life-cycle costs for road barriers a new approach was developed based on a method called “Activity-based Life-cycle Costing”. By modelling uncertainties, the presented approach gives a possibility to identify and analyse factors crucial for optimising life-cycle costs. The study showed a great potential to increase road maintenance efficiency through road design. It also showed that road components with low investment costs might not be the best choice when including maintenance and socio-economic aspects. The difficulties and problems faced during the collection of data for calculating life-cycle costs for road barriers indicated a great need for improving current data collecting and archiving procedures. The research focused on Swedish road planning and design. However, the conclusions can be applied to other Nordic countries, where weather conditions and road design practices are similar. The general methodological approaches used in this research project may be applied also to other studies.

Estimated lifetimes of road pavements in Sweden using time-to-event analysis

Maintenance planning of road pavement requires reliable estimates of roads’ lifetimes. In determining the lifetime of a road, this study combines maintenance activities and road condition measurements. The scope of the paper is to estimate lifetimes of road pavements in Sweden with time to event analysis. The model used includes effects of pavement type, road type, bearing capacity, road width, speed limit, stone size and climate zone, where the model is stratified according to traffic load. Among the nine analyzed pavement types, stone mastic had the longest expected lifetime, 32 percent longer than asphalt concrete. Among road types, ordinary roads with cable barriers had 30 percent shorter lifetime than ordinary roads. Increased speed lowered the lifetime, while increased stone size (up to 20 mm) and increased road width lengthened the lifetime. The results are of importance for life cycle cost analysis and road management.

What aspects of rehabilitation provision contribute to self-reported met needs for rehabilitation one year after stroke - amount, place, operator or timing?

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To a large extent, people who have suffered a stroke report unmet needs for rehabilitation. The purpose of this study was to explore aspects of rehabilitation provision that potentially contribute to self-reported met needs for rehabilitation 12 months after stroke with consideration also to severity of stroke. METHODS: The participants (n = 173) received care at the stroke units at the Karolinska University Hospital, Sweden. Using a questionnaire, the dependent variable, self-reported met needs for rehabilitation, was collected at 12 months after stroke. The independent variables were four aspects of rehabilitation provision based on data retrieved from registers and structured according to four aspects: amount of rehabilitation, service level (day care rehabilitation, primary care rehabilitation and home-based rehabilitation), operator level (physiotherapist, occupational therapist, speech therapist) and time after stroke onset. Multivariate logistic regression analyses regarding the aspects of rehabilitation were performed for the participants who were divided into three groups based on stroke severity at onset. RESULTS: Participants with moderate/severe stroke who had seen a physiotherapist at least once during each of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd-4th quarters of the first year (OR 8.36, CI 1.40-49.88 P = 0.020) were more likely to report met rehabilitation needs. CONCLUSION: For people with moderate/severe stroke, continuity in rehabilitation (preferably physiotherapy) during the first year after stroke seems to be associated with self-reported met needs for rehabilitation.

Steel Sheet Applications and Integrated Heat Management

Increasing energy use has caused many environmental problems including global warming. Energy use is growing rapidly in developing countries and surprisingly a remarkable portion of it is associated with consumed energy to keep the temperature comfortable inside the buildings. Therefore, identifying renewable technologies for cooling and heating is essential. This study introduced applications of steel sheets integrated into the buildings to save energy based on existing technologies. In addition, the proposed application was found to have a considerable chance of market success. Also, satisfying energy needs for space heating and cooling in a single room by using one of the selected applications in different Köppen climate classes was investigated to estimate which climates have a proper potential for benefiting from the application. This study included three independent parts and the results related to each part have been used in the next part. The first part recognizes six different technologies through literature review including Cool Roof, Solar Chimney, Steel Cladding of Building, Night Radiative Cooling, Elastomer Metal Absorber, and Solar Distillation. The second part evaluated the application of different technologies by gathering the experts’ ideas via performing a Delphi method. The results showed that the Solar Chimney has a proper chance for the market. The third part simulated both a solar chimney and a solar chimney with evaporation which were connected to a single well insulated room with a considerable thermal mass. The combination was simulated as a system to estimate the possibility of satisfying cooling needs and heating needs in different climate classes. A Trombe-wall was selected as a sample design for the Solar Chimney and was simulated in different climates. The results implied that the solar chimney had the capability of reducing the cooling needs more than 25% in all of the studied locations and 100% in some locations with dry or temperate climate such as Mashhad, Madrid, and Istanbul. It was also observed that the heating needs were satisfied more than 50% in all of the studied locations, even for the continental climate such as Stockholm and 100% in most locations with a dry climate. Therefore, the Solar Chimney reduces energy use, saves environment resources, and it is a cost effective application. Furthermore, it saves the equipment costs in many locations. All the results mentioned above make the solar chimney a very practical and attractive tool for a wide range of climates.

Automating condition monitoring of vegetation on railway trackbeds and embankments

Vegetation growing on railway trackbeds and embankments present potential problems. The presence of vegetation threatens the safety of personnel inspecting the railway infrastructure. In addition vegetation growth clogs the ballast and results in inadequate track drainage which in turn could lead to the collapse of the railway embankment. Assessing vegetation within the realm of railway maintenance is mainly carried out manually by making visual inspections along the track. This is done either on-site or by watching videos recorded by maintenance vehicles mainly operated by the national railway administrative body. A need for the automated detection and characterisation of vegetation on railways (a subset of vegetation control/management) has been identified in collaboration with local railway maintenance subcontractors and Trafikverket, the Swedish Transport Administration (STA). The latter is responsible for long-term planning of the transport system for all types of traffic, as well as for the building, operation and maintenance of public roads and railways. The purpose of this research project was to investigate how vegetation can be measured and quantified by human raters and how machine vision can automate the same process. Data were acquired at railway trackbeds and embankments during field measurement experiments. All field data (such as images) in this thesis work was acquired on operational, lightly trafficked railway tracks, mostly trafficked by goods trains. Data were also generated by letting (human) raters conduct visual estimates of plant cover and/or count the number of plants, either on-site or in-house by making visual estimates of the images acquired from the field experiments. Later, the degree of reliability of(human) raters’ visual estimates were investigated and compared against machine vision algorithms. The overall results of the investigations involving human raters showed inconsistency in their estimates, and are therefore unreliable. As a result of the exploration of machine vision, computational methods and algorithms enabling automatic detection and characterisation of vegetation along railways were developed. The results achieved in the current work have shown that the use of image data for detecting vegetation is indeed possible and that such results could form the base for decisions regarding vegetation control. The performance of the machine vision algorithm which quantifies the vegetation cover was able to process 98% of the im-age data. Investigations of classifying plants from images were conducted in in order to recognise the specie. The classification rate accuracy was 95%.Objective measurements such as the ones proposed in thesis offers easy access to the measurements to all the involved parties and makes the subcontracting process easier i.e., both the subcontractors and the national railway administration are given the same reference framework concerning vegetation before signing a contract, which can then be crosschecked post maintenance.A very important issue which comes with an increasing ability to recognise species is the maintenance of biological diversity. Biological diversity along the trackbeds and embankments can be mapped, and maintained, through better and robust monitoring procedures. Continuously monitoring the state of vegetation along railways is highly recommended in order to identify a need for maintenance actions, and in addition to keep track of biodiversity. The computational methods or algorithms developed form the foundation of an automatic inspection system capable of objectively supporting manual inspections, or replacing manual inspections.

Monitoring vegetation on railway embankments : supporting maintenance decisions

The national railway administrations in Scandinavia, Germany, and Austria mainly resort to manual inspections to control vegetation growth along railway embankments. Manually inspecting railways is slow and time consuming. A more worrying aspect concerns the fact that human observers are often unable to estimate the true cover of vegetation on railway embankments. Further human observers often tend to disagree with each other when more than one observer is engaged for inspection. Lack of proper techniques to identify the true cover of vegetation even result in the excess usage of herbicides; seriously harming the environment and threating the ecology. Hence work in this study has investigated aspects relevant to human variationand agreement to be able to report better inspection routines. This was studied by mainly carrying out two separate yet relevant investigations.First, thirteen observers were separately asked to estimate the vegetation cover in nine imagesacquired (in nadir view) over the railway tracks. All such estimates were compared relatively and an analysis of variance resulted in a significant difference on the observers’ cover estimates (p<0.05). Bearing in difference between the observers, a second follow-up field-study on the railway tracks was initiated and properly investigated. Two railway segments (strata) representingdifferent levels of vegetationwere carefully selected. Five sample plots (each covering an area of one-by-one meter) were randomizedfrom each stratumalong the rails from the aforementioned segments and ten images were acquired in nadir view. Further three observers (with knowledge in the railway maintenance domain) were separately asked to estimate the plant cover by visually examining theplots. Again an analysis of variance resulted in a significant difference on the observers’ cover estimates (p<0.05) confirming the result from the first investigation.The differences in observations are compared against a computer vision algorithm which detects the "true" cover of vegetation in a given image. The true cover is defined as the amount of greenish pixels in each image as detected by the computer vision algorithm. Results achieved through comparison strongly indicate that inconsistency is prevalent among the estimates reported by the observers. Hence, an automated approach reporting the use of computer vision is suggested, thus transferring the manual inspections into objective monitored inspections